North Korean Update

I normally think of the Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association (AFCEA) as a gathering of communications experts, but it includes Intelligence in its charter. Part of that outreach is John McCreary's "Night Watch." You apparently don't have to be a member of AFCEA to subscribe to the near nightly reports. You do have to have EMail and something to read Microsquish Word documents.

For last night his Posting included a report on the Border between China and North Korea being closed as of the 10th of December. The Financial Times says China is strengthening its side of the border and The Telegraph gives us the 10 December date.

While this could point to a number of things, including preparations for war, it most likely indicates a leadership struggle. That would involve not only the Kim family, but also the military and the Party.

Even if we were not in a Presidential Transition at this time, which likely precludes progress on nuclear arms talks and associated activities, this possible leadership transition in Korea would put the kibosh on such negotiations. Don't look for talks to resume in December.

Of course, much worse than no talks in the immediate future would be an internal collapse in North Korea, with several million people becoming refugees within their own country or spilling out into the neighboring countries--South Korea, China and Russia. This would be a humanitarian disaster of major proportions, in the approaching winter, in a country that can get very cold in January and February--ask Veterans of the Korean War.

If there is a leadership collapse in North Korea it will likely happen while it is still President Bush's watch, but it will last into President Obama's Administration. A bipartisan crisis.

Regards -- Cliff