Saturday, February 7, 2009

A Volatile Brew

Colonel Robert Killebrew wrote in Small Wars Journal about a police raid in Phoenix, AZ.
Last June a group of men in police SWAT team uniforms stormed a building in Phoenix, Arizona, and killed a suspected drug dealer. But the gunmen wearing police uniforms and firing police weapons weren't cops -- they were members of a Mexican drug gang evening scores with a troublesome dealer in the United States. When the real police arrived, the gang dug in for a shootout. That's increasingly common south of the border, but fortunately it didn't end well for the criminals this time.
You may be concerned about Iraq and Afghanistan, but each of us in the United States of America should be concerned about what is happening in our own Southwest region.

The complete PDF of the article can be found HERE. The value of the leader to the PDF at the first website is that there are comments by Isaac, which show a lot of insight into the problem, adding to our knowledge.

Frankly, as foreign policy goes, I would put Mexico at the top of the list.
  1. Mexico and their struggle with the narco-insurgents.
  2. Possible collapse in Cuba, if the transition is botched.
  3. Possible collapse in Korea, if the transition is botched.
  4. Pakistan as a failing state.
  5. Indo-Pakistani war possibility.
  6. Israel and whoever.
  7. Iraq (still needs attention).
  8. Iran and its nuclear ambitions.
  9. Afghanistan.
  10. Darfur
You may well ask about al Qaeda. They are a problem and they need to be dealt with, but they are not a nation and thus don't fall into my list. But, for sure, there needs to be an interagency group working the al Qaeda problem. It is not just a military problem, but also a police problem and an international relations problem and an international finance problem and a public diplomacy/strategic communications problem and a disaster response problem. And, there is no one place to focus on al Qaeda. That organization, or one of its derivatives, is everywhere--the Philippines, Indonesia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Algeria, Morocco, Spain, France, UK and here in North America.

But, back to the list, the problem with the pressure of the immediate is that it squeezes out the important, especially the important that isn't quite here yet, but is lurking around the corner. Sometimes problems have to be dealt with sequentially, but often they are best dealt with in depth--the near ones, the middle distance ones and the far ones, all at the same time.

Pity Poor Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. While she has a lot of high profile special representatives helping her, her plate is still quite full.

I wonder what our Congressional delegation has for a list of foreign policy priorities.

Regards  --  Cliff
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1 comment:

  1. The New Englander2/08/2009 08:24:00 PM

    Cliff,

    Nice call on the Cuba-NK stuff...in a best-case scenario, after KJI and Fidel assume room temperature (and, as you say, both could certainly happen in 2009) NK agrees to the nuke inspection verification protocol, and Cuba tilts enough to bring the State Dept. State Sponsors of Terrorism list down to just Iran, Sudan, and Syria. As of now, NK is already off the list, but until a real deal is reached on the inspections, that's tentative..

    Also, just the prospect that two of the most state-directed economies on the planet might be in for some real change is worth noting.

    I like the placement of Iraq as being on this list, but down a few ranks from the top. The recent (lack of) coverage from their provincial elections speaks volumes about the stability of that state.

    Here's to hoping for change-from-within in those thornier regimes!

    best,
    gp

    ReplyDelete

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