"The Cook Report: Obama’s Advantage / GOP strategists privately admit that the president has a good chance of winning reelection in 2012."
That would be Pollster Charlie Cook, over at The National Journal, with a hat tip to Hot Air.
On the other hand, President Obama's numbers may be at or above 47% due to the Bradley effect. Frankly, I can't remember if I voted for Attorney General George Deukmejian or for LA Mayor Tom Bradley in the Gubernatorial election in which that term was coined. I suspect Governor Deukmejian, who had been our Assemblyman. He was succeeded by Jim Hayes, who I knew from my time in High School (he was a Long Beach Attorney). His daughter and I were on the debate team and he would take the team out for desert after a debate.
2012 will not be a walkover for the Republicans unless something terrible happens between now and then and I frankly don't like it when terrible things happen to my nation.
Regards — Cliff
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