Seemed Straight Forward

For John, BLUF:  Polls are not promises.  Just ask Governor Tom Dewey.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Just Monday this was the headline in The Tampa Bay Times, "PPP poll: Alex Sink 48%, David Jolly45%, Lucas Overby 6%".

A new Public Policy Polling survey for tomorrow’s special election in Florida’s 13th Congressional District finds that Democrat Alex Sink is holding a 48-45 lead over her Republican opponent David Jolly, with Libertarian Lucas Overby at 6%.

That looks pretty commanding.

Other findings from the 7 to 9 March Poll include:

-Sink has amassed a large lead during the early voting period, getting 52% among those who have already voted to just 45% for Jolly. We find that 60% of those who say they will vote have done so already, putting Jolly in a position where he will have to make up a lot of ground on election day.

-Sink is overcoming the district’s Republican registration advantage by overwhelmingly winning independent voters. She is getting 61% with them to only 27% for Jolly.

-69% of voters in the district say that it’s important for their new member in Congress to address the problem of climate change, including 44% who say it’s ‘very important.’ The joint ad campaign the LCV Victory Fund and the Sierra Club have run highlighting Jolly’s lack of interest in addressing the issue has really worked to Sink’s advantage- voters trust her more than Jolly to address climate change by a 17 point margin, 48/31.

And among voters who say they consider addressing climate change to be ‘very important,’ she leads by 62 points at 77/15.

And just look at Republican candidate David Jolly's positions on the issues, per Wikipedia:

Jolly is against Obamacare and says he has goals of lowering taxes and cutting spending.  He believes Israel is one of the premier allies of the United States and has a goal of not cutting the United States commitment to the military and to its allies.  He is pro-life, says that he "support[s] the constitutional right to keep and bear arms," and opposes amnesty for illegal immigrants.  He supports the Balanced Budget Amendment, and would have voted to raise the debt limit in early 2014.  He opposes same-sex marriage, but believes that legalizing same-sex marriage should be left for the states to decide.

From that it would appear the only folks voting for Mr Jolly are older caucasian males.  Even Jolly wouldn't vote for Jolly, and the polling data shows it.  From the above poll it is not looking good for the Republicans in November.  Given these numbers, do we think Alex Sink will be back to play against Representative Elect David Jolly?

Regards  —  Cliff