Signs of Population Implosion

TRIGGER WARNING:  Soon it will be racist to allow immigration.

For John, BLUF:  Whether it is improved standards of living, the cost of child rearing or the easy availability of birth control, populations are falling below replacement levels.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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The world in 2076: The population bomb has imploded

This is from The New Scientist, by author Fred Pearce, with a publication date of 16 November 2017.

There is a whole Wikipedia page on "Sub-replacement fertility".

Sub-replacement fertility is a total fertility rate (TFR) that (if sustained) leads to each new generation being less populous than the older, previous one in a given area. In developed countries sub-replacement fertility is any rate below approximately 2.1 children born per woman, but the threshold can be as high as 3.4 in some developing countries because of higher mortality rates.

In the US, and other Anglo-sphere nations and Europe and Northeast Asia the number is 2.1 live births per female of child-bearing age.  Since these are averages, if you are female and have only two children, some ninety woman down the road has to have three to make it even.  Or have five children if one of the others in your set of ten elects to have no children.

From the New Scientist article, here is the lede plus four:

Could the population bomb be about to go off in the most unexpected way?  Rather than a Malthusian meltdown, could we instead be on the verge of a demographic implosion?

To find out how and why, go to Japan, where a recent survey found that people are giving up on sex.  Despite a life expectancy of 85 and rising, the number of Japanese is falling thanks to a fertility rate of just 1.4 children per woman, and a reported epidemic of virginity.  The population, it seems, are too busy (and too shy) to procreate.

It’s catching.  Half the world’s nations have fertility rates below the replacement level of just over two children per woman.  Countries across Europe and the Far East are teetering on a demographic cliff, with rates below 1.5.  On recent trends, Germany and Italy could see their populations halve within the next 60 years.

The world has hit peak child, says Hans Rosling at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm, Sweden.  Peak person cannot be far behind.

For now, the world’s population continues to rise.  From today’s 7.4 billion people, we might reach 9 billion or so, mostly because of high fertility in Africa.  The UN predicts a continuing upward trend, with population reaching around 11.2 billion in 2100.  But this seems unlikely.  After hitting the demographic doldrums, no country yet has seen its fertility recover. Many demographers expect a global crash to be under way by 2076.

Beyond this point a subscription is required, but you have the basics.&nnbsp; The US stays afloat demographically, through immigration, which means other nations are losing people.  Laugh if you want, but this could soon become an issue.  As soon as within 50 years.

Fifty years from now a smaller and smaller number of working age people will be supporting a growing number of retired people.  Extending the retirement age will help a little, but nations will be staring back down a funnel in which there are fewer and fewer working people to support the rest.

The good news for me is that this will not be my problem to solve, but will will likely fall to those born between 2035 and 2055.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff