Not All Deaths Are Equal

For John, BLUF:  It is not clear to me we have developed the statistics to help us understand the consequences of the protes, which oten became riots, in 2020.  Part of that equation is the response of local goverments.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Murder rates soar dramatically in cities after BLM protests with up to 6,000 extra deaths nationwide - massively outweighing the decline in police shootings, researcher finds

Here is the sub-headline:

• UMass PhD candidate Travis Campbell published findings in a pre-print study
• Found that police shootings drop 15% to 20% in cities with large BLM protests
• That equates to about 300 fewer police shootings nationwide over five years
• But murder rates rose 10%, an increase of 1,000 to 6,000 additional homicides
• The exact reason for the increase in murders remains a subject of study
• Campbell suggests that a decrease in police enforcement could be to blame
• He stresses that comparing murders to police killings is 'apples to oranges'

From The Daily Mail, by Reporter Keith Griffith, 22 April 2021, 16:01 EDT.

Here is the lede plus three:

A researcher has found that cities that had Black Lives Matter protests saw a significant decrease in police homicides, but a huge overall increase in murders.

Travis Campbell, an economics PhD candidate at the University of Massachusetts, published his findings in a recent pre-print study examining the impact of BLM protests on police use-of-force incidents.

His analysis, which is still undergoing peer-review, found that cities with BLM protests had 15 to 20 percent fewer police homicides than expected if the protests had not taken place, equating to 300 fewer police killings nationwide over five years.

But, in a revised unpublished version shared with DailyMail.com, Campbell finds that cities with BLM protests also saw a 10 percent increase in murders overall, equaling 1,000 to 6,000 additional murders nationwide.

Your average voter eligible citizen should be able to do rhe math.  Perhaps we are having a monologue rather than a discussion.

My speculation is that those hardest hit my a reduction in policing will be middle aged and older Black women.  Millions of them, who have felt some sense of security with the presence of police.  It will take some time for the data to flow in, but that is how I see this evolving.

The worst case outcome would be a demographic shift, with major cities becoming depopulated.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff