Following the Science

For John, BLUF:  I am not convinced that those who are urging us to follow the science know what the science is, or even what science is.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

---

This month’s heresy is next month’s orthodoxy

From Samizdata, by Blogger Natalie Solent, 11 August 2021.

Here is the post, or most of it:

“YouTube suspends Rand Paul for a week over a video disputing the effectiveness of masks”, reports the New York Times.

I have no strong opinion on the question, but Senator Rand Paul is also Doctor Rand Paul, so his medical opinion holds some weight. This post on Rumble takes you to the video that got him banned: “It Is Time For Unfiltered News”

As Glenn Greenwald points out,

JUST LAST WEEK: Biden’s former COVID adviser, the epidemiologist Michael Osterholm, told @camanpour [the CNN anchor Christiane Amanpour] exactly the same thing.

YouTube and Facebook* play a merry game. On April 16 2020, Guy Rosen, Facebook’s “VP Integrity”, posted “An Update on Our Work to Keep People Informed and Limit Misinformation About COVID-19”. That post is as good as a soap opera; the writers are always adding new and dramatic plot twists.

On February 8, 2021 at 10:00AM PT, they announced that claims that “COVID-19 is man-made or manufactured” would be removed.

On May 26, 2021 at 3:30PM PT, they said, “In light of ongoing investigations into the origin of COVID-19 and in consultation with public health experts, we will no longer remove the claim that COVID-19 is man-made or manufactured from our apps.”

In like spirit, Dr Paul is doing no more than returning to the medical orthodoxy before last. From the Independent, Thursday 12 March 2020:

Coronavirus: Face masks could increase risk of infection, medical chief warns

Members of the public could be putting themselves more at risk from contracting coronavirus by wearing face masks, one of England’s most senior doctors has warned.

Jenny Harries, deputy chief medical officer, said the masks could “actually trap the virus” and cause the person wearing it to breathe it in.

Science is about better explaining what we think we know to be true.

Once, a long time ago, about 1986, I heard someone say on CNN that 90% of what we knew to be scientifically true in 1900 we now know to be wrong.

I know we all think we are a lot smarter than we used to be, but a dash of humility is never out of order. I expect Government officials, elected or appointed, are not open to saying that they aren't certain, but it would help sell things to me.  And even "circling back" once in a while and saying "here is where we got it wrong" might do wonders to build my confidence in the job they are doing.

Regards  —  Cliff