The Path to November

For John, BLUF:  Elections can be complicated and not turn on the obvious issues.  Democrats counting on the Supreme Court and its decision re Roe v Wade may find themselves surprised and disappointed.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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The Limits of the Democrats’ Abortion Maximalism

From Commentary, by Reporter Noah Rothman, 23 May 2022.

Here is the lede plus two:

If hypocrisy is the compliment vice pays virtue, for Democrats, abortion is the vice, and mitigating their party’s losses at the polls in November is the virtue.

Last week, the party in power caught a glimpse of how a Supreme Court judgment striking down Roe v. Wade might provide Democrats with a reprieve from electoral judgment day. An NPR/Marist survey conducted in the immediate wake of a leaked Court decision found that the generic ballot measuring which party the public would like to see in control of Congress found Democrats surging back into contention. The Republican Party’s lead on that ballot test evaporated over the space of a month, shifting by eight points back in the Democratic direction. “Wait till June comes,” Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego said of this poll, “and you will see that number go higher.”

The Democratic Party and its allied institutions aren’t waiting. With the primaries in pivotal Pennsylvania concluded and the battle lines set, Democratic groups are training their fire on the flawed candidate Republican voters nominated for governor. A forthcoming $6 million campaign targeting Doug Mastriano will not, however, dwell on his support for overturning the results of the 2020 election, his presence at the Capitol Building complex on January 6, or the “QAnon”-affiliated company he keeps. Instead, the Democrat-aligned group Strategic Victory Fund opens with a policy argument against Mastriano–specifically, his stated support for Texas-style legislation proscribing abortion if a fetal heartbeat is detectable.

However, as the article goes on we see some Democrats hedging their bets.  For example, they are not abandoning their House colleague, Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar,who is against a bill codifying Roe v Wade.  The reason is that not all of the groups Democrats claim as their own, eg, Hispanic, are as pro-abortion as the Progressive wing.  Forther, some see bread and butter issues, such as gas prices, food shortages and inflation rearing their ugly heads.

An overturning of Roe v Wade does not promise Democrats victory in November.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff