A Good Contest in 2024

For John, BLUF:  This is about our Senior Senator, Ms Elizabeth Warren, and her reelection chances.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Shock Poll: Dem Elizabeth Warren Surprisingly Vulnerable, Trails GOP’s Charlie Baker by Double Digits

Here is the sub-headline:

Former Gov. Charlie Baker (R-MA) holds a double-digit lead over Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) in a hypothetical U.S. Senate race match-up in Massachusetts, according to a poll.

From Breitbart, by Reporter Nick Gilbertson, 11 May 2023.

Here is the lede plus three:

The poll, conducted by the Fiscal Alliance Foundation, shows that 49 percent of the likely voter respondents would back Baker if he announced a bid, placing him 15 points ahead of Warren at 34 percent.

Moreover, the moderate Republican leads by a wide margin with independents, as Fiscal Alliance Foundation spokesman Paul D. Craney noted in a release associated with the survey:

Senator Warren has significantly higher unfavorable numbers than her fellow Democrats statewide and that seems to be creating an opening for Baker, who always enjoyed large amounts of cross-party appeal. Looking at the cross tabs, Republicans seem to coalesce behind Baker (79%) in a way that Democrats do not around Warren (56%), and Baker leads with independent/unenrolled voters 2-1 at 57-26%.

Warren’s favorability rating is 5 points above water, with 49 percent finding her favorable and 44 percent saying she is unfavorable, including 35 percent who find her “very unfavorable.” As Craney pointed out, her favorability rating indicates she is far less secure than some of her fellow prominent elected Democrat officials in the Bay State.

I had not even been thinking of this.  But, she is a Class 1 Senator and thus up for election in November 2024.♠  Senator Warren has been serving since January 2013.

I don't believe Governor Baker is all that popular with the Conservative wing of the party.  On the other hand, President Biden could drag down the Democratic ticket.

I can support Charlie Baker as our Senator.  He is not as Conservative as I would like, but he would be good rightward shift from Senator Warren, and a chance to return to a bipartisan delegation in Washington.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  Our Junior Senator is Class 2, and thus up for reelection in NOVEMBER 2026.