Is E Warren Secure in Her Seat?

For John, BLUF:  I would normally think Senator E Warren was secure in her position, but the poll mentioned below got my interest.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Shock Poll:  Dem Elizabeth Warren Surprisingly Vulnerable, Trails GOP’s Charlie Baker by Double Digits

Here is the sub-headline:

Former Gov. Charlie Baker (R-MA) holds a double-digit lead over Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) in a hypothetical U.S. Senate race match-up in Massachusetts, according to a poll.

From Breitbart, by Reporter Nick Gilbertson, 11 May 2023.

Here is the lede plus three:

The poll, conducted by the Fiscal Alliance Foundation, shows that 49 percent of the likely voter respondents would back Baker if he announced a bid, placing him 15 points ahead of Warren at 34 percent.

2024 Massachusetts Senate GE: Charlie Baker (R) 49% (+15) Elizabeth Warren (D-Inc) 34% Advantage, Inc/@FiscalAlliance, 750 LV, 5/6-7https://t.co/NCLiy4JkmW pic.twitter.com/ykA13tKN7m — Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) May 11, 2023

Moreover, the moderate Republican leads by a wide margin with independents, as Fiscal Alliance Foundation spokesman Paul D. Craney noted in a release associated with the survey:

Senator Warren has significantly higher unfavorable numbers than her fellow Democrats statewide and that seems to be creating an opening for Baker, who always enjoyed large amounts of cross-party appeal. Looking at the cross tabs, Republicans seem to coalesce behind Baker (79%) in a way that Democrats do not around Warren (56%), and Baker leads with independent/unenrolled voters 2-1 at 57-26%.

This is a late post, but it could be important.  The Presidential race could also complicate the calculations.

It is interesting to me that the Fiscal Alliance would match former governor Charlie Baker against Senator Elizabeth Warren.  For one thing, he isn't seeking the seat.  For another, Former Governor Baker isn't that popular with all the rank and file Republicans, although more popular than Senator Warren..

For sure, they are unlikely to come looking for me to run.

Regards  —  Cliff