Census Bureau Gets New Director

For John, BLUF:  Some jobs are just hard and heading the Census Bureau is one of tham and we should appreciate the job the Director has done.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Final Director's Blog from Dr. Steven Dilingham

From The Census Bureau, by Dr Steven Dillingham, Director, 18 January 2021.

Here is the lede plus one:

Today, I write my last update on the 2020 Census.  I have just informed the outstanding staff at the U.S. Census Bureau that that I will retire from federal service on January 20, 2021 at noon.

This past week, strongly worded questions were submitted to me by the Inspector General (IG) regarding a data request to career Census Bureau analysts by one or two Administration appointees assigned to the Census Bureau.  The request was for certain administrative data to improve estimates of population categories.  Contrary to published comments and reports, the data recently requested was not an attempt to release 2020 census data results for apportionment early.  I promptly responded to the questions in writing and my answers are posted on the Census Bureau website.  Below is a statement from me providing context and summarizing my knowledge of the recent request which has been reported and commented on in the media.  The statement is followed by an announcement of my plans and heartfelt appreciation of my time and service with the Census Bureau and its outstanding employees.

It has been a hard slog for Director Dilingham, and he deserves a vote of thanks as he goes back into retirement.

Regards  —  Cliff

Counting the People

For John, BLUF:  The Ballot Box is still the arbiter of what people think.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Google Street Views AI Can Now Predict Race and Political Party

From Pajama Media, by Mr Phil Baker, 6 December 2017.

Here is the lede plus two:

In a paper published earlier this year, Stanford computer scientist Timnit Gebru wrote about how neighborhoods can be evaluated by the makes and models of the cars parked in their driveways.  The paper appeared in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and it's an interesting read.

By analyzing the images already available as part of Google Street Views, the research team was able to identify which neighborhoods were Republican and which were Democrat as well as many other characteristics.

It determined that in those areas where the number of sedans is higher than pickup trucks, there’s an 88 percent chance of the district voting Democratic.  Where there are more pickup trucks, there’s an 82 percent chance it’s a Republican-voting district.

In fact, the conclusion is that this is almost as good as the American Community Survey (ACS).  And quicker to analyze.  And cheaper to execute.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

More Experimentation

Here I try to embed a video from the MSNBC show Hardball, with not Chris Matthews, but "The Chuck", talking about new census figures regarding Hispanics in the United States.  Fifty point five million Hispanics, or 16.3% of the total population.

I am hoping that the transcript is here.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

The gist of it is that the Republicans are now in big trouble, due to the demographics of the Hispanic population.  But, you knew that when I said MSNBC at the lede.

Frankly, I am not very concerned.  If the economy turns around, and I hope it does, then this large number of Hispanics will be able to partake in the success, assuming the Obama Administration and the Reid/Pelosi Health Insurance Reform have not combined to create an even greater Underground Economy.

The Republican Party is about John Locke, the Founding Fathers, Middle Class values and Upper Middle Class aspirations.  As the economy improves, that 16.3% of the population will benefit and move upward.  On the other hand, as Hispanics grow as a percentage of the US population they might bring with them habits of thought and action from the old country and we could see the US go the way of the ABC nations.  Once strong and surging economics, those three nations have since slid backward compared to the rest of the world.  Only now is Brazil emerging from many years in the doldrums.  Argentina is still on the ragged edge, economically.

Our future is in our hands.

Regards  —  Cliff

Taxes Create Mobility

When I go to the Tax Prof Blog I always think that Professor Paul L Caron should give up his attempt at a beard.

On the other hand, his mind is sharp, as sharp as an IRS audit.

Today he is talking about Oregon and their extra tax on millionaires.  The good news for Oregonians is that two-thirds of their millionaires stayed put this year, after the legislature and the voters passed this extra tax on the well to do.

It is hard for the poor to move, either to avoid taxes or find new jobs.  For millionaires it is not so hard.  I know someone who was once a middle class working stiff, but who took a chance with his career, did well and now has a home in Orange County, California, and a Condo in Seattle, Washington, and a healthy sized boat that he and his wife have taken as far north as Alaska.  Money produces mobility, and so do taxes.

Regards  —  Cliff

Almost Getting One More Seat in Congress

Over at The Washington Examiner is a little insight into the redistricting issue, writ large, and how one state is always the one to next get a Member of the US House of Representatives, if there was one more seat.♠  Last time it was Utah and this time it was North Carolina.

Also of interest is how the District of Columbia almost got a real seat, with voting rights, but the brokered deal fell apart.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  Current limit is 435, voted such by the US Congress.  It could be 500, if the Congress wanted it to be 500.  Or, it could be 250.  I'm torn.

Census Today

Today we find out if Massachusetts loses a US House Seat.

The odds are against us.

Then the really interesting stuff starts and we will hold our breath for the 5th as it exists today.  My heart says it will stay, but my head tells me that for those folks on Beacon Hill who will decide our fate we are almost as far away as North Adam.

Regards  —  Cliff

2010 Census

I am hoping we are all going to hear a lot more about the 2010 Census. It is very important to us.

Article 1, Section 2, Clause 3 of our Constitution calls for a census to be taken every ten years.

I attended a meeting of different organization around the city at the City Council Chambers on Wednesday of this week.  Mayor Edward "Bud" Caufield spoke to us and said that the census was a "Very Important Issue."  The census is important for a couple of reasons.

1. It determines how many Representatives Massachusetts has.  We have been on the bubble of losing one of the ten for at least the last ten years, as people leave the Commonwealth for elsewhere.  Only our immigrant population causes us a net increase each year.  If we undercount and some other states go up enough, one seat will go away and since Representative Niki Tsongas is the most recent Rep, it could well be her district that is divided up to get us down to nine. That would be bad for the Greater Lowell area.  And don't think the Great and General Court can't Gerrymander.  Look at the current districts.  There are a few towns and citys that look like they belong to no one.


2. Then there is the apportionment of Federal monies.  Money for education, for example, or for fighting the current downturn. Look at it this way. Last guess had us at about 104,000 people.  Some, to include our Mayor, believe the true number was close 130,000.  That is a 25 percent increase in what me might be getting in terms of monies returned to us.  That is not peanuts.


3. Finally, an increase in Lowell population of that magnitude might help for Chelmsford get back its own State Representative and thus undue the damage done by former Speaker Tom Finneran, when he broke the town up like a soda cracker and give it four representatives.  It was an evil thing for Mr Finneran to do.

At the meeting at City Hall we got a briefing, presented by Mr Vong Ras, on process.

Since we are a City with a large immigrant population, Mr Vong made the point that Census is NOT about law enforcement.  Some of those who have come to our nation worry about things like the Census being a hidden move by the police. That is NOT the case in this country.

Another point made was that the form, which has ten questions, is available in English, Spanish, Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese and Russian. BUT, at Assistance Centers, which will be set up, there will be guides in 59 languages.  So, one way or another, we should be able to break the language barrier.

Mr Ras told us that the expected "Hard to Count" populations include:

• Renters
• People in Crowded Housing (Fear of code violation consequences)
• Immigrants in General
• Non-English speakers
• Female-headed households
• People on public assistance or living in poverty
• People in high unemployment areas
• People with low educational attainment

Obviously some of these groups overlap.

It is not that these people won't be counted, but that we have to work extra hard to make sure it happens.

You may ask, why do I care, I mail in my form in March and am all done.  The reason you care is that you can have an impact when you come in contact with someone who you think might be in a "Hard to Count" population.  You can gently ask today if their home address has been registered in the pre-survey.  You can gently ask them next years if they got their forms and filled them out and turned them in.  It isn't that hard and I am expecting Representative Niki Tsongas to be on my doorstep in March, checking up on me—her job may be riding on it.

The theme for this decade's count is "It's in Our Hands," and so it is.

The Census Bureau webpage is here.  Be warned, it has an annoying little one second click, as it counts down the days, hours, minutes and seconds to 1 April, the official Census Day.

Your organization can become a "partner," helping to encourage people to be counted.  Check that out here.

There will be a Lowell kickoff.  Mayor Caufield suggested Lowell's Memorial Auditorium, where many new citizens have been sworn in (I have attended such a ceremony there myself).  A good idea.  However, Ms Mercy Anampiu, of the Lowell Community Health Center, suggested an outdoor affair, which also recommends itself.  If you have any ideas, speak up.

Remember it is in all our hands.

Regards  —  Cliff