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Showing posts with label Unintended Consequences. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Unintended Consequences. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 8, 2022

George Soros takes a High Profile Hit


For John, BLUFWe know how this story ends.  San Fran DA Chesa Boudin lost by double digits in yesterday's recall election.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




From Newsweek, by Reporter Virginis van Zandt, 7 June 2022, 3:49 PM EDT.

Here is the lede plus two:

The fate of San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin will be determined Tuesday by people like Leanna Louie, one of the 60 Asian Americans who were assaulted in San Francisco in 2021 — up 567 percent from nine victims in 2020.

Boudin is a fresh-faced and charismatic public figure, having been in office for just over two years after serving as a public defender.  His self-described progressive approach to prosecution seemed a perfect fit for San Franciscans, and his childhood story drew sympathy.  (Boudin's parents were Weather Underground members who were sentenced to decades in prison for their roles in a 1981 armed robbery and murder when Boudin was an infant.)

Boudin was elected district attorney in 2019 on a "restorative justice" platform, which emphasizes meetings between the victim and the offender to discuss the crime and how it was harmful.  He vowed to prevent crime by addressing the root causes, including poverty, mental health issues and drug abuse.

Mr Boudin lost 40% to 60%.  That seems a fairly strong sttement by the voters.

No, California didn't just turn Republican, but we are seeing a small revolution against the Progressives.  As the late Speaker, Tip O'Neil, used to say, all politics is local.  Mess up with the locals and they will look elsewhere.

I am synpathetic to correcting "root causes, including poverty, mental health issues and drug abuse" but one needs a bridge to get there, a bridge that allows the lives of others to not be harmed.  Mr Boudin did not have that bridge, and perhaps didn't even have an idea that it was needed.  When Government makes changes, there are pertibations that ripple through the system, impacting those not targeted by the changes.  Those are unintended consequestions and they must be allowed for and compensated for.  Mr Boudin failed to do the needed planning.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Tuesday, July 13, 2021

Funding the Police


For John, BLUFOur former Governor here in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Michael Dukakis, has come out against the idea of defunding the police.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




From The Boston Herald, by Reporter Peter Lucas, 11 July 2021, 4:50 p.m.

Here is the lede plus three:

Mike Dukakis, the quintessential liberal Democrat, may be opposed to defunding the police, but nobody on the left wants to know about it.  They don’t want you to know about it either.

Dukakis called the idea of defunding the police “nuts.”

If you have not heard about his comments, which run contrary to the anti-cop rhetoric of Massachusetts Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Eddie Markey, along with those of Rep. Ayanna Pressley, it is understandable.

That’s because the progressives in the Democrat Party and their fellow travelers in the left wing media, don’t want you to know that he is at odds with the accepted views of the nut jobs who have taken over the party he once headed.

The purposes of government include actions to "establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility."  Without the police that becomes the job of the military.  Frankly, that doesn't seem a good substitute for police.  The idea that we should defund the police seems like a temper tantrum with noone thinking about the consequences.  Apparently former Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis has thought this through.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Thursday, July 8, 2021

Save The Uyghurs


For John, BLUFWhile some are calling for saving the environment, others are trying to save ethnic minorities, caught up in larger social movements.  Some ethnic minorities are not making the progressive cut.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




From The Pipeline, by Mr Tom Finnerty, 08 July 2021.

Here is the lede plus one:

Pretty shocking -- Politico reports on growing tensions within the Democratic coalition, with the environmental activist faction of the party objecting to even the mildest attempts by the Biden administration to confront China over its human rights violations and international aggression.
As a new Cold War takes shape between the U.S. and China, progressives fear the result will be a dramatically warming planet.  Over 40 progressive groups sent a letter to President Joe Biden and lawmakers on Wednesday urging them to prioritize cooperation with China on climate change and curb its confrontational approach over issues like Beijing’s crackdown on Hong Kong and forced detention of Uyghur Muslims.
The problem for the Biden administration is that American public opinion has shifted significantly against China in recent years, such that according to a recent Pew survey, 89 percent of Americans "consider China a competitor or enemy, rather than a partner."  This move began with Donald Trump calling out China's predatory trade policy and intellectual property violations before he was even president and continued through then-President Trump and Chairman Xi's trade war.  It was cemented, however, by the CCP's handling of the Covid-19 outbreak last year, which, if the no-longer-a-conspiracy-theory lab leak hypothesis turns out to be true, would mean that China is responsible for the most significant man-made disaster in human history.
The pronunciation of the ethnic group, the Uyghurs, is WEE-goorz.

The Uyghurs are an Islamic ethnic group, which has resisted assimilation into the larger Han population.  They have been sent to re-education camps, their reproductive freedom restricted, their women violated and their organs harvested.  Bad as all this is, there is little we can do about it, ecept scold and impose economic sanctions.  The Author notes that the Progressive Environmentalists want us to do nothing, for the sake of their ideology.

But for the environmentalists, none of this really matters.  They've convinced themselves that climate is the preeminent political issue, and no other consideration comes close.  Many of them would even argue that American capitalism and climate change are inseparable -- even indistinguishable -- political problems, never mind the fact that, while the U.S. has led the world in total carbon emissions decline since 2000, China's new coal-fired energy capacity alone outstripped the rest of the world by 300 percent in 2020.
When you think it is the end of the world in just a few years then your survival instincts kick in and all else falls away, including moral clarity.  Avoiding the Apocolypse becomes the focus.  I can understand it, and yet still I believe these are misguided thoughts.  We are not facing an existential climate disaster.  Is action required to secure our future?  Yes.  However, it should be doable within the larger context of our society.  We can think and engineer our way out of climate change issues, and in doing so guard against the consequences of the iron law:  "Every solution contains the seeds of a new problem."

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Wednesday, March 24, 2021

China Going Bust Long Term


For John, BLUFDemographics is destiny.  Right now China is the world's most populous nation, with India in a close second.  However, 43 years ago China did something about its population growth.  Now they are seeing the consequences.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




Here is the sub-headline:

China this century is on track to experience history’s most dramatic demographic collapse in the absence of war or disease.

From The National Interest, by Analyst adn Author Gordon G. Chang, March 23, 2021.

Here is the lede plus three:

China this century is on track to experience history’s most dramatic demographic collapse in the absence of war or disease.

Today, the country has a population more than four times larger than America’s. By 2100, the U.S. will probably have more people than China.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics typically releases population data for the preceding year in early March. This year, NBS delayed its announcement because the central government is scheduled next month to announce preliminary results of the 7th national census, conducted in November and December.

The image of Chinese economic and geopolitical dominance will be severely dented when Beijing releases census data. Xi Jinping may believe “the East is rising and the West is declining”—the money line from one of his speeches late last year—but that view will be exceedingly hard to maintain.

It appears that China is continuing to suffer from it's "one child" policy of 1978.  It appears that when a nation changes a social policy unintended consequences follow and reversal of the change is not easy.  It is possible that the head of the Chinese Communist Party, General Secretary Xi Jinping, is whistling through the graveyard.

in order to understand the underlying structure you have to deal in TFR, or Total
Fertility rate
.  That is how many children a woman produces in a lifetime, on average.  The usual number is 2.1.  Nine out ten women have two and the tenth has three.  This allows for child deaths at birth or in childhood.  Mr Gordon Chang goes on:

Beijing has not announced births for last year, but early numbers indicate they plummeted from 2019.  Births in the household registration—hukou—system plunged 14.9% to 10,035,000 last year.  Because births so registered constitute about 80% of total births, He Yafu, a demographer, estimates total births for the country last year came in at 12,540,000.

Yi [Yi Fuxian of the University of Wisconsin-Madison] told me that the number of births for the country was in reality about 8 million and could not have exceeded 10 million.

Again, Yi looks correct.  Provinces and other governmental units have reported data ahead of the census, and births were down more than 30% in some locations.

The big issue is China’s trajectory.  Official media is cagey about a critical figure, the country’s total fertility rate, generally the number of children per female reaching child-bearing age.  The official China Daily reports that Lu Jiehua of Peking University believes the country’s TFR, as the rate is known, “has fallen below 1.7.”

In any event, China’s population will shrink fast. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences projects China’s population will halve by 2100 if the TFR drops from 1.6 to 1.3.

China’s TFR, however, is far lower than 1.3.  If its TFR stabilizes at 1.2—1.2 [it] would represent a big increase—China will have a population of only 480 million by the end of the century.

In the US we are handling this with immigration.  A map shows Massachusetts at 1.7, below replacement level.  Since I moved here in 1994 we have gone from ten US Representatives to nine.  That is because we lost population compared with the rest of the nation.  The same thing will be happening to China, slowly at first and then in a rush.  The way Author Ernest Hemingway described Bankruptcy in The Sun Also Rises, "Gradually and Then Suddenly."

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Friday, December 18, 2020

Electric Cars Will Require Investment


For John, BLUFOne wonders if the Eco-friendly have costed out their ideas?  Nothing to see here; just move along.




From PJ Media, by Mr Bryan Preston, 1 December 2020.

Here is the lede plus several:

Tesla CEO Elon Musk says we’ll need more electricity to power cars like his.  A lot more.
Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk said on Tuesday that electricity consumption will double if the world’s car fleets are electrified, increasing the need to expand nuclear, solar, geothermal and wind energy generating sources.

Increasing the availability of sustainable energy is a major challenge as cars move from combustion engines to battery-driven electric motors, a shift which will take two decades, Musk said in a talk hosted by Berlin-based publisher Axel Springer.

There’s no unicorn energy source or free lunch.  Currently, electric cars are primarily powered by coal, natural gas, and nuclear.  Those are the sources we use to generate electricity, after all, according to the Energy Information Agency.  Renewables are growing but still account for less than 20% of U.S. electricity.

There’s no free lunch when it comes to renewable energy sources, which may not even be all that renewable.  Wind and sun are free, but the means of generating power from them are not.

I, for one, like the use of nuclear power.  While it requires care in setting up, it is a reliable and consistent source of power, and it is relatively ecofriendly.

As for the rush toward electric cars, I am hoping that we have a more indepth conversation about the future, and consider the long term, the unintended, consequences.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Thursday, August 29, 2019

The Electoral College


For John, BLUFThe election of Donald Trump in 2016, because he better gamed the Electoral College, seems to upset the Democrats.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




From The Daily Signal, by Ms Tara Ross, 27 August 2019.

Here is the lede plus three:

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez loves to hate on the Electoral College. Once again, she has the nation up in arms about America’s unique presidential election system.

The Electoral College, the New York Democrat said on Instagram last week, is a “scam” that “effectively weighs white voters over voters of color.”  Then on Friday afternoon, she doubled down, tweeting that the Electoral College is nothing more than “affirmative action” for rural voters.

In her view, rural areas are too white—and too powerful in presidential elections.

Perhaps Ocasio-Cortez should take a step back in time.  Civil rights leaders once had a different view, and they came out in force to argue for the preservation of the Electoral College.

Given the size and diversity of these United States, the Electoral College is a tool for ensuring that all voices are heard.  If we change the system, and marginalize certain segments of the nation the response will come, and it will be surprising and disliked.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Sunday, August 4, 2019

A Plague On Both Your Houses


For John, BLUFMore extreme demands may not result in more action, regarding climate change.  And aren't we glad we didn't embark on a massive effort to reverse global cooling, back in the 1970s.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




From The New York Post, by Bjorn Lomborg, 2 August 2019.

Here is the lede plus four:

A year ahead of the US presidential election, exaggeration about global warming is greater than ever.  While some politicians continue (incorrectly) to insist it’s made up, far more insist (also incorrectly) that we face an imminent climate crisis threatening civilization.

During this week’s Democratic debates, Pete Buttigieg called 2030 a “point of no return,” Beto O’Rourke warned we don’t have “more than 10 years to get this right” and Andrew Yang claimed climate change has already moved beyond a tipping point:  “We are 10 years too late,” he said.

Using climate to energize the base may make short-term political sense, but adding to polarization on the topic just makes it impossible to engage in sensible policy discussion.

Until well into the early 1990s, US opinion about environmental issues, including climate change, remained remarkably unified.  Then a partisan gap in attitudes emerged, and has been exploited from both sides of the political aisle.  Today Democrats and Republicans are farther apart on how much priority should be accorded climate change and the environment than on any other issue.

This gulf is exacerbated by those who wrongly deny the existence of climate change, but today they are largely ignored and derided, while liberals are given a free pass to make far-fetched exaggerations.

Mr Bjorn Lomborg is president of the Copenhagen Consensus Center.

As Brookings Institution points out, there isn't the money for all the good ideas the Democratic Presidential Candidates are bringing to the table.  Mr Lomborg makes the same point, but from a different direction.  It seems to me it is time to put some engineers in charge.

Regards  —  Cliff

Sunday, June 23, 2019

Unintended Consequences


For John, BLUFEven Vice President Mike Pence knows to be careful.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




From CNBC, by Ms Courtney Connley, 17 May 2019, Updated 10 June 2019.

Here is the lede plus six:

The #MeToo and Time’s Up movements have brought huge attention to the challenges women face at work, but a new survey finds that 60% of male managers say they’re uncomfortable participating in regular work activities with women, including mentoring, working one-on-one or socializing.

According to the survey, released by LeanIn.org and SurveyMonkey, that’s a 33% increase from last year.

Senior-level men also say they are 12 times more likely to be hesitant about one-on-one meetings with a junior woman than they are a junior man, nine times more likely to be hesitant to travel with a junior woman for work than a junior man, and six times more likely to be hesitant to have a work dinner with a junior woman than a junior man.

LeanIn.org founder and Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg calls the results “totally unacceptable.”

She tells Julia Boorstin on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” that the problem with this dynamic is that “women already weren’t getting the same mentorship men were, particularly women of color.”  And in her experience, she says, “no one has ever gotten a promotion without getting a one-on-one meeting.”

Though some have argued that the #MeToo and Time’s Up movements have had a negative impact on relationships between men and women at work, Sandberg disagrees.  She says the movements have had an “overwhelmingly positive” impact on the workplace, especially in spotlighting the problem of sexual harassment against women.

“The thing is, it’s not enough,” she says.  “It’s really important to not harass anyone, but that’s pretty basic.  We also need to not be ignored.”

I am not shocked at this.  Given the present climate and the nature given natural interplay between the sexes this is to be expected.

Then there is the question of why women are not mentoring women to the same degree Men mentor men?  Why is this a strictly male issue?

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Friday, January 25, 2019

The Value of a Min Wage Bump


For John, BLUFThe scary part is that the facts do not overcome the good intentions of Progressives.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




Here is the sub-headline:

Until voters recognize that politicians have incentives that are often quite different from their own, we’re likely to continue to see harmful legislation of this kind.

From The Foundation for Economic Education, by FEE's Managing Editor, Mr Jonathan Miltimore, 24 January 2019.

Here is the lede:

New York City’s minimum wage jumped more than 15 percent overnight on January 1, and employers are already cutting workers’ hours as a result.
So, there is the problem.  We have reason to doubt the effectiveness of raising the minimum wage in (1) raising income or (2) creating more jobs.

Here is the view of an economist, Ludwig von Mises, with regard to what is going on.

“No politician is any longer interested in the question whether a measure is fit to produce the ends aimed at,” Mises wrote in The Ultimate Foundation of Economic Science.  “What alone counts for him is whether the majority of the voters favor or reject it.”

Politicians, Mises is saying, have incentives quite different from workers.  And incentives matter a lot.

Makes me think of US Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortex.

At any rate, here is a report from Reason Magazine, "Minimum Wage Hikes in New York City Cause Restaurants to Eliminate Jobs, Cut Hours, Raise Prices".  Here is the sub-headline, "Good intentions do not always lead to good outcomes."

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Tuesday, October 30, 2018

Looking For the Magic Solution


For John, BLUFWhat appears logical often ignores second and third order consequences.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




Posted at 8:30 am on October 28, 2018 by Tom Knighton

Here is the lede plus two:

Gun control advocates routinely argue that gun control laws will reduce crime, that they take guns out of the hands of criminals.  Gun rights advocates typically counter with plenty of examples of places with sky-high crime and lots of gun laws.  This tends to not go over well with people who get their knowledge of firearms policy from MSNBC.

It doesn’t go over well because it’s true and they’re not prepared for that.

Kind of like how they won’t be prepared to see how gun confiscation hasn’t really helped the District of Columbia.

I am sure Novelist Sarah Hoyt was wearing her shocked face as she posted this item.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Saturday, October 20, 2018

Collateral Damage


For John, BLUFI don't think the Democrats upstanding second and third order effects.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




Here is the sub-headline:

From The Washington Free Beacon, by Reporter Paul Crookston, 18 October 2018.

Here is a key paragraph:

"We owe the American people to be there for them, for their financial security, respecting the dignity and worth of every person in our country, and if there is some collateral damage for some others who do not share our view, well, so be it, but it shouldn't be our original purpose," Pelosi said.
There is "every person in our country" and then there are those "others who do not share [Ms Pelosi's] view.  It is like those who don't share Ms Peoosi's views are "illegal residents".

Hat tip to Ann Althouse.

I admit this would be an experiment in which I would not like to participate.

Regards  —  Cliff

Saturday, July 7, 2018

Jacking the Minimum Wage And Job Loss


For John, BLUFSometimes we think we are doing good, but we are actually doing bad.  But, it is hard to think about second and third order effects.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




Here is the sub-headline:

From The Econ Log of the The Library of Economics and Liberty, by Retired Professor David Henderson.way back on 28 February 2016

Here is the lede plus five:

Jonathan Meer and Jeremy West have found that increases in the minimum wage destroy jobs, not so much by destroying current jobs as by reducing the growth rate of new jobs.

That makes sense if employers’ investments in capital are even partially irreversible, that is, if some costs of capital investment are sunk, as seems plausible.

What follows is "a simple numerical example to illustrate the point."

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Monday, May 7, 2018

Democrats Threatened by Special Counsel?


For John, BLUFIs it possible that Mr Trump is playing Mr Mueller, for his own political success?  Nothing to see here; just move along.



Not from indictments, but from popular rejection of the whole process.


From Pajama Media, by Writer Roger L Simon, 6 May 2018.

Here are the first five paragraphs:

It would probably give Robert Mueller a nervous breakdown, not to mention James Comey, Andrew McCabe and the rest of the FBI cabal, past and present, but at this point the special counsel seems to be actually causing the reelection of Donald Trump.  Most of the country, other than the greed heads in the media and extreme Democratic Party operatives, no longer gives a hoot in Hades about the "Russia Probe."  They're frustrated and sick of it.

There's a dawning national consensus of "enough already" reflected by Judge Ellis when he demanded to know exactly what Paul Manafort's possible money laundering schemes of years ago had to do with Trump colluding with Russia in the 2016 election.  The same might be said of Stormy Daniels, whose Russia connection is even more remote.

But let's skip past the subplots of the moment to the greatest of all unintended consequences of this endless investigation -- the decline and fall of the Democratic Party.

Yes, you read that correctly.  Like a crackhead addicted to the next puff, Democrats and their media allies have spent most of the last sixteen months fixated on whether Trump somehow, some way, colluded with Putin.  Meanwhile, a zillion issues slipped by, some important, others less so, but the Democrats barely weighed in on anything, other than to whine about Trump.

What a dumb mistake.  And it was compounded by the assumption that the public agreed with them, which was true for a while, to some extent, but has now worn surpassingly thin.  It didn't help that the tedious late-night talk show hosts and SNL comics fixated on Trump as well, creating a perfect (but utterly useless) storm.

Rush Limbaugh thinks internal Democratic Party polling is showing that talk of impeachment is a loser.  See this OpEd from Sunday.

I am hoping that the new Salena Zito book, to be released tomorrow, will help explain this.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Tuesday, May 1, 2018

The ERA is Back?


TRIGGER WARNING:  In which I reference an article that suggests an ERA might not be good for women.

For John, BLUFYes Equal means no preferences.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




Here is the sub-headline:

The last thing left-leaning feminists want is a constitutional amendment that would jeopardize such things as preferential treatment for woman-owned businesses.

From The Volokh Conspiracy, by Law Prof Gail Heriot, 1 May 2018.

Here is the lede:

Who would have thought the Equal Rights Amendment would stage a comeback?  Yet at least on the surface, that might seem to be happening.  Nevada ratified the amendment in 2017.  A few weeks ago the Illinois Senate did the same.  Some of the ERA's cheerleaders argue that only two more states should be needed.
Yes, if it passes the litigation will go on for a very long time.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Saturday, May 6, 2017

Balanced Examination on Health Care


For John, BLUFWhen the Government delves in, someone is helped and someone is hurt.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




Here is the sub-headline:
Arguing about this as if beneficiaries of ACA don't exist isn't right.  Arguing about it as if people like me don't is also not right.
This is from Columnist Mary Katharine Ham, win The Federalist, on 5 May 2017. Here is the lede plus two:
You may know me as a political pundit and writer who has spoken publicly about how the Affordable Care Act negatively affected my family.  What you might not know is two years ago, I was a seven-month-pregnant widow with one toddler who got a letter two weeks after my husband died, informing me I’d lost my third or fourth health insurance plan since the Affordable Care Act passed.  If you’ll remember, the promise was that I could keep my plan if I liked it.  I could not.

I predicted what would happen to my family’s insurance, and to much less fortunate people subjected to the exchanges with us, many of whom have seen doubled premiums and tripled deductibles.  If you’ll remember, the promise was everyone’s premiums would go down.  They did not.  For predicting it, I was routinely called a lying hack in public.  It’s a hazard of the job, but I wasn’t lying.  I was right.  I also thought it was improbable the federal and state governments could handle building these exchanges and that they’d likely blow up and be inoperable, thereby preventing people like me from actually purchasing the new plans the ACA required we purchase.  Again, I was not lying for partisan gain.

ACA has helped people.  I know some of them well!  I have two friends with serious health challenges, one of whom I can say was probably kept alive by Obamacare; the other by the fact she was able to keep her grandfathered pre-ACA plan.  I am not in the habit of asserting any piece of health legislation is either perfect or a tool of evil designed by hateful actors.  They’re not.  I will not assert either of these fundamentally shallow and manipulative things about either ACA or adjustments to it (and, yes, this piece of House legislation is an adjustment or a reform, not a repeal, which would change dramatically in the Senate if taken up and change again before eventual passage).

To whom do people go when the promises of politicians are negated by their legislation?

What does are Senior Senator, Ms E Warren, think about this?  Is our Junior Senator, whatever his name is, even aware of this?  Where does our US Rep, Ms Niki Tsongas, stand on this?  Right now they seem to be on the "just let it roll" platform, watching the train rumble through the station.  Maybe they don't even know there is a crash coming.  Maybe they think they can blame it on President Trump, or Speaker Paul Ryan.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Friday, February 5, 2016

Registering Women for the Draft


For John, BLUFFair is fair, but is America ready?  Nothing to see here; just move along.



The article that covers this the best is in The Wall Street Journal, but it is behind a paywall.

So, we go to Fox News, which has a longer version of the AP story than The Old Gray Lady. "Reps introduce bill requiring women to register for draft".

Two Republican lawmakers introduced a bill Thursday requiring women to register for the draft – in a move meant to take the decision out of the hands of the military so it can be debated in Congress.

Reps. Duncan Hunter of California and Ryan Zinke of Montana said their joint legislation is aimed at provoking a fuller discussion of the Pentagon’s decision to open all combat jobs to women. Top generals for the Army and Marines said earlier this week that women should be required to register for the draft now that combat jobs are being opened to them.

Incidentally, Rep Duncan Hunter and Ryan Zinke have served.  The Sun Sentinel (Fort Lauderdale) reports: 
Hunter served in the Marine Corps with tours in Iraq and Afghanistan. Zinke is a former Navy SEAL.
Sneaking back to The Wall Street Journal we have this from the campaign trail:
The issue of registration for women could become a campaign issue, depending how far the bill progresses.

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton said Wednesday at a town-hall meeting that she wasn't sure all women should register for the draft and was worried the shift could change the definition of an all-volunteer force.

"I have a hard time imagining the kind of national emergency that would require the use of the Selective Service System," Mrs. Clinton said.

While Ms Clinton may not foresee a "national emergency" requiring the use of the draft, that does not mean it isn't out there looking for Ms Clinton.  And if not all women should register for the draft, how does one separate those how should and those who shouldn't? 

Regards  —  Cliff

  Going to 68 today.
  The famous Leon Trotsky line—“You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.”  Probably around three in the morning.
  The age requirement for registration would be 18 to 26.

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

The Unanticipated Consequence of the Mass Migration


For John, BLUFImmigration issues are not just about numbers, they are also about the degree of cultural separation and the ambition of the immigrants.  Nothing to see here; just move along.



From The Jerusalem Post we have this insight into the thinking of German State Security Services regarding the longer term consequences of the vast migration of people out of refugee camps in the Middle East.  "German intel:  Migrants will bring anti-Semitism".

Directly and indirectly.

Remember the last time we had rampant anti-Semitism in Germany?  Of course not, but it wasn't that long ago.  Chancellor Hitler had to wait for President Hindenburg to die, because the President remembered the Service of Jews in The Great War, but then it all went down hill, and not just for Jews.  Also for the crippled, the Communists, those with sexual interests outside the mainstream, Communists, then Trade Unionists and then religious leaders and on and on.  Once things like this start it is hard to get them to stop, short of military action.

The lede plus some:

BERLIN – Germany’s security and intelligence agencies expressed alarm over the influx of refugees and migrants who harbor radical Islamic views and hatred of Jews, according to a Sunday report in Welt am Sonntag.

According to a security document obtained by the paper and read by top-level agency personnel, “We are importing Islamic extremism, Arab anti-Semitism, national and ethnic conflicts of other peoples as well as a different societal and legal understanding.”

The newspaper wrote that security sources warn that “the integration of hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants Germany is no longer possible in light of the number and already existing parallel societies.”

The term “parallel societies” in Germany is frequently defined as insulated Muslim communities that have little or no contact with mainstream society.

The document, called “the non-paper” because it was not signed, stated: “German security agencies...will not be in the position to solve these imported security problems and thereby the arising reactions from Germany’s population.”

A senior level security official told the paper that, “The high influx of people from all parts of the world will lead to instability in our land.”  The official added, “We are producing extremists through immigration. Mainstream civil society is radicalizing because the majority don’t want migration and they are being forced by the political elite.”

He predicts that many Germans “will turn away from the constitutional state.”  The paper’s exclusive information came from the four major security agencies in Germany – the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, the Federal Intelligence Service, the Federal Police and Federal Criminal Police Office.

It isn't the first move, or even the second, but the subsequent moves that begin the unraveling.

Think of it in terms of no good deed goes unpunished.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

  For George, World War One (1914-1918), which didn't become World War One until after World War Two popped up, later in the story.
  See, for example, Pastor Martin Niemöller
  How do "parallel societies" work when you get in a war and are drafting folks?  A nation as big as the US can handle a few small such communities, such as the Plain Folk (Amish and other Mennonites), but there is a practical limit, where a nation is no longer a single nation.  It will happen in Germany much more quickly than in the US.

Wednesday, September 30, 2015

After Speaker Boehner


For John, BLUFPeople are seeing this even through their own narrow field of view.  Nothing to see here; just move along.



From the Blog Splice Today we have Mr Russ Smith writing "Democrats’ Sudden Embrace of John Boehner Is Infuriating".  The sub-headline is "One of the few liberals to tell the truth is The New Yorker’s Jeffrey Toobin."

What was that line from Madame de Pompadour?  "Après nous, le Déluge" ("After us, the Deluge").

Those celebrating this resignation need to think about the unintended consequences.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

  Said to the French King, Louis XV, after the French loss as the Battle of Rossbach (5 November 1757).

Thursday, April 23, 2015

Destroying Coal


For John, BLUFThis is where people have to decide.  Nothing to see here; just move along.



The Instapundit, Law Professor Glenn Harlan Reynolds, must be out of touch, because the post we examine was done by Elizabeth Price Foley at 10:12 AM.  This is a collection of links with solid explanations.  The issue is the EPA deciding that it has authority to close coal fired electric power plans.
PUNCH EPA BACK TWICE AS HARD:  The Obama Administration’s EPA has recently discovered, buried in obscure language (section 111(d)) of the Clean Air Act, that it has authority to demand drastic reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from existing power plants.  The net effect of its demands would be the shut-down of many of the nation’s coal-fired electricity plants, which are by far the most common and cost-effective means of generating our nation’s growing electricity needs.  The Obama Administration’s goal of shutting down coal-fired plants is no secret, and the EPA Administrator has admitted that its proposed rule is not designed to reduce pollution, but in fact to kill America’s coal sector by “investing” in the Administration’s favored “renewable” energy sources, such as its disastrous solar energy “investment” in Solyndra.
Remember how, back in 2008, President Obama promised to bankrupt the coal industry?  I remember the clip.  On the other hand, The Washington Post gives it two Pinocchios.  I think they are letting him off the hook.

Go to the Instapundit link, because it goes on quite a bit more.

So, on this clean up after Earth Day we should ask ourselves:  Is it really bad and time is limited?  If so it is time to shut down ALL the coal fired electric power plants.  Ration electric power.  Go on the rotar, as the English did in 1974.

Hat tip to the Instapundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Sunday, April 5, 2015

Blame Bush


For John, BLUFWhat degree of military involvement do we need?  Nothing to see here; just move along.



If you are looking for a reason to hate the Bush Administration and to put the blame for Daesh on the Bush Administration you could cite this article by Ms Liz Sly in The Washington Post"The hidden hand behind the Islamic State militants?  Saddam Hussein’s."
When Abu Hamza, a former Syrian rebel, agreed to join the Islamic State, he did so assuming he would become a part of the group’s promised Islamist utopia, which has lured foreign jihadists from around the globe.

Instead, he found himself being supervised by an Iraqi emir and receiving orders from shadowy Iraqis who moved in and out of the battlefield in Syria.  When Abu Hamza disagreed with fellow commanders at an Islamic State meeting last year, he said, he was placed under arrest on the orders of a masked Iraqi man who had sat silently through the proceedings, listening and taking notes.

Abu Hamza, who became the group’s ruler in a small community in Syria, never discovered the Iraqis’ real identities, which were cloaked by code names or simply not revealed.  All of the men, however, were former Iraqi officers who had served under Saddam Hussein, including the masked man, who had once worked for an Iraqi intelligence agency and now belonged to the Islamic State’s own shadowy security service, he said.

His account, and those of others who have lived with or fought against the Islamic State over the past two years, underscore the pervasive role played by members of Iraq’s former Baathist army in an organization more typically associated with flamboyant foreign jihadists and the gruesome videos in which they star.

Yes, CPA Order 1, De-Baathification, started us down this path.  Who was in charge?  US Ambassador L Paul Bremmer, who pleaded to WGBH that "I had my orders".  The cuts were too deep, as Army Lieutenant General Jay Garner pointed out to Ambassador Bremmer at the time.  LTG Garner was the interim leader and he should have been kept on as the permanent head of the Coalition Provisional Authority.  Mistakes were made.

The Obama Administration official (Ms Marie Harf ) who said that the thing about Daesh is that they just need jobs hit the nail on the head, but ten years too late.  The members of the Baath party needed jobs and self-respect back when we dismantled the Saddam Hussein Government.  Now it is likely a different solution is needed.  Even Host Chris Matthews noted that.

The real question is, how do we fix this?

Regards  —  Cliff

  Or, ISIS, or ISIL, or IS.
  On the other hand, reasonable people will note that this was over a decade ago and corrections should have been introduced by now.  Six years in is a long time to be blaming one's predecessor.