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Monday, December 6, 2010

Back to Korea

Over at Night Watch there is good cheer about the new Republic of Korea (ROC) National Defense Minister, Kim Kwan Jin, who took office on Saturday, 4 December.  Mr Kim has already ordered increased defense preparations in the South and promised a response to North Korean provocations, such as the recent shelling of Yeonpyeong Island.  Further, there has been artillery firing by ROC forces, including naval vessels, beginning this morning, Korean time. (As I write this it is almost 9 PM in Seoul.)

Meanwhile, in the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea, the leader, Kim Chong-il, has been out touring, including a steel mill and a mine.  Thus, we are seeing the peaceful face of North Korea.
However, real war preparations by North Korea, especially civil defense measures require careful attention, should they be reported.  Such measures involve real costs to the decision makers and the state, unlike propaganda statements, whose purpose is to achieve results with little cost.
I thought this was insightful.  Threatening is one thing, especially when you think your opponent will not do anything in response.  Threatening plays well at home and garners attention abroad and sometimes concessions.

On the other hand, to undertake preparations for war has costs that are economic as they disrupt the normal flow of events.  For the United States it is one thing to mobilize.  For an economy like North Korea it is another thing.

For more on this warning of war and the search for indicators, see this item by the Honorable Charles Allen.

Remember, it isn't so much what they say as what they do that counts.

Regards  —  Cliff

1 comment:

Jack Mitchell said...

Remarks With South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung-hwan Before Their Meeting

SECRETARY CLINTON: Well, it’s a great pleasure to welcome Minister Kim here to the State Department. We are very much looking forward to both our bilateral meeting and the trilateral meeting with Japan that will be held this afternoon. We have a great deal to discuss, but we are very committed to our relationship and our alliance with the Republic of Korea. And we are determined on every issue to work through and come to conclusions about the appropriate ways forward.

So Minister Kim, welcome.

FOREIGN MINISTER KIM: I thank you for inviting me to Washington, D.C., and this is my first trip since I came to my minister’s office. And at today’s meeting, I expect to reaffirm our close coordination on North Korean issues, and I also expect to have a good discussion on how to strengthen our strategic alliance, including ratification of KORUS FTA. And I also expect to have a good trilateral meeting with Japanese Foreign Minister Maehara and Secretary Clinton. Thank you.
-snip
(with video)
http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/12/152399.htm