North Korean Actions and South Korean Reactions

For John, BLUF:  The Korean Peninsula is simmering, but hasn't really boiled over since the 1953 Armistice.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

Cornell Law School graduate Gordon G. Chang, who has some views on East Asia that are orthogonal to conventional wisdom, has written a piece, The Failure of Deterrence in Korea.  Here is the lede and following two paragraphs:

In a poll released last month by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, 66 percent of South Koreans said they wanted their country to develop nuclear weapons to ward off attacks from North Korea.  In fact, only 48 percent of the population last year believed America would use nukes to retaliate against a North Korean nuclear strike against them, down 7 percent from 2011.

The survey by the private think tank in Seoul is a clear vote of “no confidence” in the US, which has, by treaty, since 1953, pledged to defend the South, with nukes if necessary.  If the South Koreans trusted Washington, they would not want to have their own arsenal of the world’s most destructive weapons.

And if this many South Koreans suspect Washington’s resolve, it’s a safe bet that many policymakers in Beijing and Pyongyang doubt America as well.  China and North Korea have increased their war-mongering rhetoric conspicuously of late, and both are behaving arrogantly, as if they think they can push the US out of Asia.

This goes both to the issue of what is deterrence (and how does it work) and the question of how to prevent proliferation of nuclear weapons.

The problem with deterrence is that you don't know if it is working, or if it has ever worked until after it (1) fails or (2) the tensions end and you can look in the archives of the other side.  But, that said, relying on deterrence is better than a preventive war, if you have reasonable confidence it is working.

As for preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons, it is easy enough with reasonable democratic oriented nations.  It is the nations that have a small leadership core and aren't much interested in being everyone's friend who are hard to talk out of nuclear proliferation.  The secrets of the atom are today pretty well known.  The issue is taxing enough money out of one's population to be able to invest the money needed to make it happen.  Remember, South Africa had, and apparently tested, a nuclear device, back in September of 1979.  Then they gave up their capability.

An expensive business.  There is no doubt North Korea is well along the path to a nuclear capability, but it is not yet a nuclear armed nation.  Right now the hermit kingdom of North Korea is beggaring its people in order to develop such a nuclear capability.  In the mean time it engages in big bluffs and small provocations.

Regards  —  Cliff