The Iran Mess Here at Home

For John, BLUF:  I have been reading The New Yorker since from around 1950—or at least reading the cartoons.  It was in the living room of the house behind ours, the DeHarts on Lincoln Street.  I think it would be fair to characterize Clara DeHart as the intellectual on South Lincoln Street.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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The Real Backstory of Why Trump Ordered the Killing of Suleimani Is Becoming More Clear

From The New Yorker, by Writer John Cassidy, 10 January 2020.

Here is the lede plus one:

The Trump-Iran story continues to develop in alarming ways.  On Thursday, reports that Western governments believe Iranian military forces mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing a hundred and seventy-six passengers and crew members, produced a predictably divided reaction.  “Innocent civilians are now dead because they were caught in the middle of an unnecessary and unwanted military tit for tat,” Pete Buttigieg, the Democratic Presidential candidate, said, on Twitter, immediately drawing cries of outrage from Trump supporters who insisted that Iran was entirely responsible.  Iran’s government dismissed the reports as disinformation.  But, if it does turn out that the Iranian military made a terrible blunder amid the frightening escalation in long-running tensions between Tehran and the Trump Administration, it will be ever more imperative to get a full account, not only of that blunder but also of the escalation.

On that subject, more disturbing details are emerging by the day.  The picture we are getting is of the Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, and Vice-President Mike Pence both egging on an impetuous President to launch the January 2nd drone attack that killed the Iranian military commander Qassem Suleimani at Baghdad International Airport.  None of Trump’s other senior political or military advisers, meanwhile, appear to have urged restraint, despite the near-certainty that the move would inflame the entire Middle East and provoke reprisals.  Any deliberative policymaking process appears to have been replaced by a combination of belligerence, toadyism, and saluting the Commander-in-Chief.

Really, Mr Cassidy is supporting Mayor Pete Buttigieg's contention that President Trump is responsible for the downing of the Ukranian airliner on takeoff from Tehran?  Is he willing to take it to the next step, which is, as Senator Warren suggests, that the President ordered the attack on Major General Suleimani because of the Impeachment action, a sort of Wag the Dog scenario.  Is Speaker Pelosi ultimately responsible for this?

But, more fundamental is the question of if the attack on Major General Suleimani was "an unnecessary and unwanted military tit for tat"? History tells us that this kind of targeting is not unknown:

• There was the British assisted attack (Operation Anthropoid) on Nazi SS-Gruppenführer Reinhard Heydrich, the leader of the Einsatzgruppen killing groups and the Chairman of the January 1942 Wannsee Conference, which gave us the "Final Solution to the Jewish Question"; the rounding up of all Jews in Germany and German occupied Europe, with deportation and genocide to follow.  From our perspective, a very bad person.
• There was the shootdown of Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto, who, as Japanese Pacific commander-in-chief commanded both the attack on Pearl Harbor and the Battle of Midway.  Operation VENGEANCE, based on highly classified intelligence,♠ resulted in 339th Fighter Squadron P-38s being sent to intercept the Admiral's aircraft over Bougainville Island.♥

Notwithstanding the hagiography to be found in leading US newspapers and media outlets, General Saleimani was in fact an enemy of the United States and a very effective one.  The Iranian catch phrase, "Death to America" is a phrase from Iran familiar in the US.  Here is a Wall Street Journal article, "The Sinister Genius of Qassem Soleimani."  The sub-headline is "The Iranian commander harnessed both Shiite extremists and Sunni radicals, even as he built a 'foreign legion' to project Iran's power."  We are talking about a genius, a genius who kept us hopping for two decades.  We have heard the line about him being responsible for 600 American dead.  The real issue is the thousands of Iraqis who died because of General Suleimani's genius for irregular warfare.  Taking him off the table only makes sense.

"Why now" asks Senator Warren and others.  Why now is that it is time to put a stake in the ground over the increasing escalation of actions by Iran over the last nine months:

• 7 May — United Arab Emirates claims four commercial ships “were subjected to sabotage operations.”
• 13 June — Two oil tankers near strategic Strait of Hormuz hit, leaving one ablaze and adrift as 44 sailors are evacuated from both vessels.
• 20 June — Iran’s Revolutionary Guard shoots down a U.S. military surveillance drone.  President Trump lets it pass.
• 1 July — Iran follows through on a threat to exceed the limit set by the nuclear deal on its stockpile of low-enriched uranium, which is used for civilian applications
• 14 Sept. — A drone attack on Saudi oil facilities temporarily cuts off half the oil supplies of the world’s largest producer, causing a spike in prices.
• November — Protests break out in some 100 cities and towns in Iran after authorities raise the price of gasoline.  Scale of protests and resulting crackdown hard to determine as authorities shut down internet for several days.  Amnesty International estimates more than 300 people killed.
• 27 Dec. — A US contractor is killed and several American and Iraqi troops are wounded in rocket attack on a base in northern Iraq.  US blames the attack on Kataeb Hezbollah, one of several Iran-backed militias operating in Iraq.
• 29 Dec. — US hits Kataeb Hezbollah positions in Iraq and Syria, killing at least 25 fighters and bringing vows of revenge.
• 31 Dec. — Hundreds of Iran-backed militiamen their supporters barge through an outer barrier of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and hold two days of violent protests, smashing windows, setting fires and hurling rocks.

I will admit there is a down side.  Per The Daily Mail, out of the UK, "Protesters in Tehran clash with riot police as they demand the Ayatollah RESIGNS and call for regime change after Iran finally admits to shooting down jet and killing 176 people."  I blame President Trump.  Heck, protestors were even avoiding stepping on the US and Israeli flags.  And, to stir up the problem, President Trump even tweeted out a greeting to the protestors ("To the brave and suffering people of Iran:  I have stood with you since the beginning of my presidency and my government will continue to stand with you.  We are following your protests closely.  Your courage is inspiring").  The Democrat Presidential Candidates?  Crickets.

Did it make us safer?  Yes.

There has been questions as to if the President has done the appropriate notices to the US Congress.  I think that the answer is yes, both in terms of the law and in terms of precedent, set by those who occupied the Oval Office before him.

Opponents of the President have asserted that he, and his Administration, has no strategy.  It appears to me to be restraint, but responses to attacks targeting Americans and killing them.  We will support our allies, but at the same time, scale down our deployments in the Middle and Near East. 

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  The British were very concerned about the use of ULTRA signals intelligence for this particular raid.  It caused tension in the ULTRA intelligence sharing arrangement.
♥  There has been some controversy in the award of credit for shooting down Admiral Yamamoto's aircraft.  This Blogger was part of a three member panel that reviewed the evidence back in the mid-1980s.