Trump's Next Move

For John, BLUF:  The future is not written in stone.  And bullies need to be resisted.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Live updates:  Iran launches missiles at US military facilities in Iraq, Pentagon confirms

Here is the sub-headline:

Officials said there have been no reports of American casualties at this time.

From ABC News, by Reporters Luis Martinez and Elizabeth McLaughlin, 7 January 2020.

Here is the lede plus one:

Iran fired multiple missiles into Iraq on Tuesday evening, targeting U.S. military sites in what appeared to be retaliation for the recent American drone strike that killed one of its top generals.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps swiftly took credit, and one Iranian politician tweeted his nation’s flag -- an apparent swipe at President Donald Trump who tweeted the American flag after the U.S. killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani.

So where does it go from here?  This could be the opening act of a worse future, as suggested by The Daily Beast Yesterday ("The Nuclear Threats From Iran and North Korea, Working Together, Grow by the Day").  The sub-headline is "By blowing away Soleimani, Trump wanted to show he is not a paper tiger. But his “disproportionate” actions may push North Korea and Iran to step up nuclear cooperation."

One problem with this view is that it ignores several decades of history, including Iranian fomenting of conflict over the last two decades, and efforts at nuclear weapons development.  It includes North Korean acts of overseas assassinations and their sinking of a South Korean warship.  Then there is the North Korean shelling of South Korean Islands.

There is an alternative future.  It is possible the leadership of both Iran and North Korea will recognize there are limits to their bullying behavior, coupled with a willingness on the part of the United States to engage in Live and Let Live.  We are hearing those kinds of words from the White House and Tehran.  There is hope.

Regards  —  Cliff