Seeking a Dismount Point

For John, BLUF:  the major problem with the war in Gaza is that no one has a clue as to how this ends.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Israel's War Against Gaza Should Not Be America's War Too

Here is the sub-headline:

In the wake of the atrocities committed on October 7th and Washington’s tacit acquiescence in Israel’s maximalist war aims, the dubious notion that vital American interests are still at stake in the Greater Middle East has taken on new life.

From Common Dreams, by Dr Andrew Bacevich.

Here is the lede plus three:

One way of understanding the ongoing bloodbath pitting Israel against Hamas is to see it as just the latest chapter in an existential struggle dating back to the founding of the Jewish state in 1948. While the appalling scope, destructiveness, and duration of the fighting in Gaza may outstrip previous episodes, this latest go-around serves chiefly to reaffirm the remarkable intractability of the underlying Arab-Israeli conflict.

Although the shape of that war has changed over time, certain constants remain. Neither side, for instance, seems capable of achieving its ultimate political goals through violence. And each side adamantly refuses to concede to the core demands of its adversary. In truth, while the actual fighting may ebb and flow, pause and resume, the Holy Land has become the site of what is effectively permanent conflict.

For several decades, the United States sought to keep its distance from that war by casting itself in the role of regional arbiter. While providing Israel with arms and diplomatic cover, successive administrations have simultaneously sought to position the U.S. as an “honest broker,” committed to advancing the larger cause of Middle Eastern peace and stability. Of course, a generous dose of cynicism has always informed this “peace process.”

On that score, however, the present moment has let the cat fully out of the bag.  The Biden administration responded to the gruesome terrorist attack on October 7th by unequivocally endorsing and underwriting Israeli efforts to annihilate Hamas, with Gazans thereby subjected to a World War II-style obliteration bombing campaign.  Meanwhile, ignoring tepid Biden administration protests, Israeli settlers continue to expel Palestinians from parts of the West Bank where they have lived for generations.  If Hamas’s October assault was a tragedy, proponents of a Greater Israel also saw it as a unique opportunity that they’ve seized with alacrity.  As for the peace process, already on life support, it now seems altogether defunct.  Prospects of reviving it anytime soon appear remote.

Reading Andrew Bacevich's article I find it doesn't answer the long term question—How does this end?

There are possibly two questions there for Americans.  The first is how we avoid a repeat of the outcome of the Wannsee Conference of 1942.  In the wake of World War II we committed to "Never Again".  Are we backing off that commitment?

While I have great hope the Abraham Accords will create a new Middle East (notwithstanding Iran's opposition), I think success depends on Israel's confidence that it will not being abandoned.

But, if the Abraham Accords fail, then what?  A second Holocaust?  What a blot that would be.

Dr Bacevich offers nothing in that direction.

Then there is internal American politics.  While the Coastal Elites may not give a fig, across the fruited plain are God fearing people who believe "Those who support my People, I will support."  This is a political fact of life.  The students and faculty of Harvard, MIT and Penn may laugh at such silly thinking, but I expect politicians like Rep Jim Jordan of Ohio hear it.  Then, with this crisis you have the Second Reading for the Second Sunday of Advent, which sounds a little like global nuclear war (That is Roman Catholic liturgy, but Protestants read the same Bible).

If Israel goes down, there may be millions of refugees.  Are they coming here?  Worse would be no refugees.  Then it would be more like the Vendee during the French Revolution.

My conclusion is there is no plan there.  No "what if" thinking.

And, here is a comment on the original article by retired Atmy Ranger Colonel Keith Knightingale:

Unfortunately, there does not appear to be any viable solution other than some sort of military occupation which is a transitory solution.  Worst case is the IDF occupies.  Best case is some form of mixed Arab/Western/Asian force.  Good luck in forming the latter.  So, for the foreseeable future, we have no possibility of a permanent solution.  Both sides will continue to hate each other and the US will be pilloried for its support choices and our forces imperiled for the foreseeable future.  And Iran will find many ways to keep the pot boiling and we will do little to contain those efforts.

We have no idea.  Do you?

Regards  —  Cliff