You Have to Win the Electoral College

For John, BLUF:  Well, at least tie it, throwing the election into the House of Representatives.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Wargaming the Electoral College:  Welcome to the Thunderdome, 2024

From PJ Media / VodkaPunit, by Blogger Stephen Green, 27 March 2024, 3:45 PM.

Here is the lede plus four:

Welcome to the inaugural Wargaming the Electoral College column for the 2024 campaign. I've been doing this as VodkaPundit since 2004 and in my private life — inspired by "The McLaughlin Group" at the tender age of 19 — since 1988 when George Bush squared off against Mike Dukakis.

Coincidentally, that race took place years ago and was Joe Biden's first outing in the Democrat primaries. It's amazing to think about how long ago that was since today he doesn't look a day over a hundred and seven.

Democrats have been playing two very dangerous games with their lawfare against Donald Trump. The first is the damage they're doing to the political health of our republic. The second is the danger to themselves. It's clear that the Biden camp wanted a rematch against Trump, having beaten him (by whatever means...) once already. The lawfare campaign — waged locally but orchestrated from the White House — was meant to rally GOP primary voters to Trump. And that it surely did. But they may have taken it too far, perhaps causing independent voters to rally to Trump, too.

As always, thanks to the fine folks at 270toWin for their excellent online EC tool.

Let's go to the maps.

And from that point we see a series of maps, with analysis of different state decisions in November on obtaining the needed 270 Electoral College votes.  The US Electoral College has 538 electors, 535 from the 50 States and 3 from the District of Columbia.

In the view of the VodkaPundit, the breakdown is, at this point, fairly even, with a slight edge to President Biden, but 98 Electors in play (unlike the map, he gives Minnesota to President Biden).  but, it is seven months until the election, and, I assert, the half-life of a political memory in the United States is 90 days.  Even so, I like the examination of several possible future paths.

No discussion of Candidate Robert F Kennedy, Jr.  Thus no examintion of how Mr Kennedy would pull votes from either of the main candidates, or even if he might win in one or more states.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff