Ignoring the Data

For John, BLUF:  Reuters, the fabled news reporting organization, apparently curates information to meet its audience's perceived prejudices.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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The data about police shootings just didn't add up, but no one at Thomson Reuters wanted to hear it.

From Bari Weiss Substack, by Reporter Zac Kriegman, 12 May 2022.

Here is the lede plus three:

Until recently, I was a director of data science at Thomson Reuters, one of the biggest news organizations in the world. It was my job, among other things, to sift through reams of numbers and figure out what they meant.

About a year ago, I stumbled on a really big story. It was about black Americans being gunned down across the country and the ways in which we report on that violence. We had been talking nonstop about race and police brutality, and I thought: This is a story that could save lives. This is a story that has to be told.

But when I shared the story with my coworkers, my boss chastised me, telling me expressing this opinion could limit my ability to take on leadership roles within the company. Then I was maligned by my colleagues. And then I was fired.

This is the story Reuters didn’t want to tell.

Here is a data person who looked at the data and found that many public pronoucements on Black Lives Matter are not solidly based on data science.

The problem here is that an organization curating information to conform with the prejudices of members of the organization.

I thank Bari Weiss for letting this appear on her substack.

Regards  —  Cliff

What Causes the Spread of COVID-19?

For John, BLUF:  There is a lot we don't yet know about COVID-19.  This report doesn't clear up many questions, but it does illuminate the spreadth of unknown factors, both known unknowns and unknown unknowns.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Dog owners who walk pooches at higher risk of contracting COVID-19: study

From The New York Post, by Reporter Jackie Salo, 17 November 2020.

Here is the lede plus two:

Dog owners who walk their pooches are 78% more likely to come down with COVID-19, a new study claims.

Researchers from the University of Granada surveyed 2,086 people about their daily habits during the pandemic to assess the risk of various activities, according to a paper in the journal Environmental Research.

They found that people who walked their dogs had a significantly higher chance of catching the virus — with an increased risk of 78% compared to the average person.

My Middle Brother and I have different views on the needed collection of data.  I say that it is the job of the local Public Health Officer to collect information in light of local knowledger of the local population.  My Brother things this is a job for Federal Agencies, such as the NIH and CDC.♠  .

We need to be looking into the various anomolies regarding COVID-19.  We need to be inquisitive.  Why were, in Lowell, numbers disproportionately high for Black Residents in the beginning (Some 18% of cases, for 6.8% of the population) but even now?  We need people to ask more questions.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  I expect that the true answer is that it takes efforts on the part of both.  Working in an office in Atlanta (or working from home in the Atlanta Conurbation) one can miss a lot of what is happening in America.  At the same time, a local Public Health official may not see across reports and have trends pop out.

Trump Taxes Disclosed

For John, BLUF:  I guess, if the data of the President is not secure, my data is not secure.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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TRUMP'S TAXES SHOW CHRONIC LOSSES AND YEARS OF TAX AVOIDANCE

Here is the sub-headline:

Records Obtained by The Times After Years of Secrecy

Source is The New York Times, 28 September 2020.

It is all behind a paywall.  How many paywalls can a middle class person afford?  I have to prioritize, Lowell, Boston, WSJ.  The Old Gray Lady is not one of them.  That said, one of my Brothers sends me select article, to needle me.

How did their Lordships at The Times obtain this data?  Are public officials vulnerable to having their private data released by Civil Servants who lack integrity?  Is this the flip side of the actions of Ms Lois Lerner?

The good news out of this is that apparently there is no evidence of President Trump being linked to Russians in nefarious ways.

I guess there are no concerns about how former Vice President Biden made his millions on the salary of an elected official.  Speaking fees?

Regards  —  Cliff

The Fires of California

For John, BLUF:  The mainstream Media is not being completely honest with us about the current epidemic of fires out West.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Forest Fires Aren’t at Historic Highs in the United States. Not Even Close

Here is the sub-headline:

California’s wildfires are a serious matter, but the official record of the United States shows forest fires in the US today are far below the annual average in the 1930s and 1940s.

from The Foundation for Economic Education, by Mr Jon Miltimore, 21 September 2020.

Here is the key paragraph:

News agencies and NIFC were simply ignoring all data prior to 1960.  When this data is included, one sees 2017’s record setting fires burned about one fifth of the acreage of fires in 1930 and 1931.  These were peak years, but they were not exactly anomalies, Lomborg pointed out.  The entire data set, a quarter century of figures that comes from the official record of the United States, shows the yearly average between 1926 and 1952 was several times higher than the peaks of today.

the numbers are charted in the article.

So, if folks aren't honest about forest fires, what else are they not being honest about?

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Emerging Democratic Majority—2016

For John, BLUF:  A lot of statistics to say that not everything is obvious to the casual observer, which is what media types turned out to be.  Thus, the importance of asking the next question, of looking at what if.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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The Electoral College Blind Spot

Here is the sub-headline:

Most reporting vastly overstated the strength of Clinton’s “emerging Democratic majority” and missed how it was a potential Electoral College liability.

From The FiveThirtyEight Blog, by Mr Nate Silver, 23 January 2017, republished July 2018.

Here is the Advert for the Series on the coverage of 2016:

This is the first article in a series that reviews news coverage of the 2016 general election, explores how Donald Trump won and why his chances were underrated by the most of the American media.

And here is the meat of the story:

Donald Trump’s victory in last November’s election victory came despite the fact that he lost the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points, making for the widest discrepancy between the popular vote and the Electoral College since 1876.  So one measure of the quality of horse-race analysis is in how seriously it entertained the possibility of such a split in Trump’s favor.  This is one point on which the data geeks generally came closer to getting the right answer.  FiveThirtyEight’s statistical model, for example, saw the Electoral College as a significant advantage for Trump, and projected that he’d be about even money to win the Electoral College even if he lost the popular vote by 1 to 2 percentage points.  Overall, it assigned a 10.5 percent chance to Trump’s winning the Electoral College while losing the popular vote, but less than a 1 percent chance of Hillary Clinton’s doing the same.

By contrast, much of the conventional reporting during the campaign wrongly presumed that the Electoral College would be an advantage for Clinton.  For instance, on July 30 — at a time just after the conventions when national polls showed Clinton and Trump almost tied1 — The New York Times wrote of Trump’s “daunting electoral map” and narrow path to 270 electoral votes:

Even as Mr. Trump has ticked up in national polls in recent weeks, senior Republicans say his path to the 270 Electoral College votes needed for election has remained narrow — and may have grown even more precarious.  It now looks exceedingly difficult for him to assemble even the barest Electoral College majority without beating Hillary Clinton in a trifecta of the biggest swing states: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Lesson Learned:  It isn't over until it's over.

Regards  —  Cliff

Is HUD Mismanaged?

For John, BLUF:  Old Fighter Pilot saying—"Measure it with a micrometer, mark it with chalk, cut it with an axe".  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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That is what the Daily Caller is saying.

"There’s Some Hot Competition For America’s Worst Federal Agency".

Here is the lede:

Ask Americans what the worst federal agency is and odds are it will be the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), but there is another that may actually be worse: the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).

I know that HUD is trying to get a handle on data regarding Homelessness, but they are not making it easy on the suppliers of data, the people down at the street level trying to understand the scope of the problem.

And I am not sure Congress should get off scott free.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Bernie Sanders Squeezed

For John, BLUF:  You don't have to be a Democrat to think hard ball.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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From the Progressive News Site, Nation of Change, we have an article by Ms Alexandra Jacobo, "BREAKING: DNC Deals Devastating Blow to Bernie Sanders’ Campaign".

It seems the Democratic National Committee (Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Chairperson) rents out its nation wide voter database.  Earlier this week it put a patch on the software that opened up private candidate additions to all candidates.  Now it is using this software failure on its part as an excuse to shut out Candidate Senator Bernie Sanders.

If you immediately asked yourself if this is just another maneuver to help Hunny Bunny, you would not be alone with that thought.

UPDATE:  From The Hill, Mr Ben Kamisar reporting, "Sanders sues Democratic Party".  Hat tip to the InstaPundit for the update item.

Regards  —  Cliff

The Cost of Homelessness

For John, BLUF:  An ongoing problem.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Not a great article, but some thoughts on homelessness and its costs.

Data and Privacy are, indeed, big issues.  With better data we can do a better job.

Regards  —  Cliff

Lost Crime Data

For John, BLUF:  Tell the truth and let the chips fall where they may.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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From Fox News, via Reporter Ms Malia Zimmerman, we have a look at crime rates for illegal immigrants and who is not tracking them.  "Elusive crime wave data shows frightening toll of illegal immigrant criminals".

The lede is:

The federal government can tell you how many "Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islanders" stole a car, the precise number of "American Indian or Alaska Natives" who were arrested for vagrancy or how many whites were busted for counterfeiting in any given year.  But the government agencies that crunch crime numbers are utterly unable — or unwilling — to pinpoint for the public how many illegal immigrants are arrested within U.S. borders each year.

Willful ignorance.  If you don't have the data you don't known what is going on.  As Lord Kelvin told us

“When you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in numbers, you know something about it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meager and unsatisfactory kind; it may be the beginning of knowledge, but you have scarely, in your thoughts advanced to the stage of science.”

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Educating Black Americans

For John, BLUF:  If big groups are not getting education it is not just a blot on us, but a detriment to economic progress.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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In today's edition of The Boston Globe, page A1, above the fold, is an article bylined by Laura Krantz, about Black students as minorities in local Boston area higher education institutions, Diverse campuses, but still few black students.  The sub-headline is:

With little representation, many battle culture shock at Boston-area colleges

Oh, I understand that.  It is like arriving in Lowell, from another planet state.  It isn't just being tagged a "blow in", but also the many new and different rituals, like squeaking through on a red at stoplights.  At least there are traffic lights.  It is the decent roads I miss.  The snow I don't mind.  I have a couple of years in Alaska.

I was a little surprised the reporter didn't note that with 15% of the student population across the nation, Blacks are actually over-represented.  The 2010 Census has Blacks at 12.6% of the national population, albeit only 7.02% of the Massachusetts population, making us 26th in the nation.

I found this interesting, quoting from the article:

BU devotes two admissions officers to recruit students deemed to be “under-represented minorities” — which includes Hispanic and Pacific Islander students.

What about students with a Portuguese background, students from Brazil?

And, the reporter talks about a student from Ethiopia.  I am probably mistaken, but I don't think of Ethiopia being populated by Blacks, who are from further south and west.  Are the Oromo and the Amhara, some 61.4% of the population of Ethiopia, racially Black, as are the people of, say, South Sudan?

OK, so my take-away is that Blacks in Boston who want to go to college and are not finding seats locally should come up here to Martyville.  With only 6.8% of the population of Lowell being African American the students would find their representation larger, proportionately, and thus more satisfying, and it would help us get over our own 4% hump.  That said, UMass Lowell has 15% minority and 4% foreign.  Interestingly, we have 21% "declines to state".  I wonder, being "blow ins", how my wife and I are grouped when we take classes?

I don't wish to make fun of this issue, just reframe it.  With Boston being 24% Black, per the article, the percentages in local colleges is abysmal.  One wonders if a significant number go off to other institutions?  Where would we go to get that data?

Regards  —  Cliff

Information Flow and Health Care

For John, BLUF:  I wonder how many customers are there because information wasn't easy to exchange?  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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About a week ago The Boston Globe ran an OpEd by Columnist Mike Ross on HIPAA (Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996).  This is a topic that always interests me.  I think of HIPPA as one of those Federal Frauds perpetrated on the American People by a Clueless Congress.  Mr Ross touches on that as he argues that while he can be quarantined due to measles, the law and its inherent confusion prevent effective and efficient sharing of information—information that could save lives, or at least make medicine more effective.  The article is here.  Read the whole thing.  Mr Ross is a former Boston City Councilor who needs his Wikipedia page updated.

We sign regarding HIPPA every time we get a new provider and also every year.  We sign that we have been provided something from the provider that explains our rights under HIPPA.  What rights?  At least one such form said that the military has the right to examine our records.  The military?  Why?  I can see that for enlistment purposes, but if I am not enlisting, why?  Maybe some future draft.  However, if they get to me, at 72, we are in deep trouble (and the Air Force should have called me back before than anyway).

In the mean time we are doing a pretty poor job of sharing information that would allow us to make good decisions, both medical and other.  I see it in the area of homelessness.  People move around in the homeless population.  Are we able to help them by forwarding information on their status, on what has been done to help them with this or that agency?  Often not.

Yes, privacy is a very important issue and we need to work on it, but that doesn't mean that we should allow individuals and groups to be hurt by lack of information exchange.  I would like to suggest that we work on matching up data bases (and as Mr Ross suggests, preserving information), but that we create and empower a group of information auditors to review and ensure information is not being exploited to the disadvantage of the persons whose information we have gathered.  It might even help us in dealing with the deprivations of petty bureaucrats.

Regards  —  Cliff

Bookmark This Site

For John, BLUF:  Nate Silver tries to get behind the data for the connections.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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You may have heard the phrase the plural of anecdote is not data. It turns out that this is a misquote. The original aphorism, by the political scientist Ray Wolfinger, was just the opposite: The plural of anecdote is data.

I found this above item in the intro to the new (renewed) blog FiveThirtyEight, "What the Fox Knows".  FiveThirtyEight is the nom de guerre of Reporter and Statistician Nate Silver and he is back in business.

Regards  —  Cliff

A Bottle of Water

For John, BLUF:  Data is gathered everywhere.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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I bought a two dollar bottle of water at the gym the other day.  They wanted my name for their computer.  I was paying cash—two dollar coins.  I said "cash" to the Clerk, but she said "policy" to me.  Policy trumps paying cash.

I guess they are compiling a list of folks dumb enough to pay $2.00 for a cold bottle of water.

Coincidently, someone told me that Senator Warren is trying to pull back the issuing of dollar coins.  That is disappointing.  I like the dollar coins for parking meters and bottles of water.  I thought it might be because the Susan B Anthony coins were taken to be a symbol of the Pro Life crowd,♠ since she was very anti-abortion, thinking abortion was a male imposition on women.

Turns out it is about jobs in Western Massachusetts, where the paper for paper money is manufactured.  Crane and Company, of Dalton, out in Berkshire County.

On the other hand, it was on 11 December 2011, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner suspended production of dollar coins, "due to cost of production".♥♦  Senator Warren wasn't sworn in until 3 January 2013, so maybe she had nothing to do with it, but is still getting credit/blame.  Politics is so strange and interesting.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  Well, the the Sacagawea dollar does have a baby depicted on the Obverse, along with Ms Sacagawea.  The story is she was pregnant when she started the journal with Lewis and Clark and had the baby along the way.  There are a billion Sacagawea dollars in circulation and about 250 million in reserve.
♥  Except for those produced for collectors.
♦  Apparently about 80,000 of the latest dollar coins, the Presidential Series, does not have "In God We Trust" on the edge, leading to them being called Godless Dollars.