Italy Fails to Cope

For John, BLUF:  Italy is showing what happens when you have weak health care and then you get a pandemic.  The example floating around is if the virus victims doubles daily, seven days before it hits 100%, it is less than 1%.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Elderly Will Be Denied Intensive Care as Coronavirus Overwhelms Italy's National Health System, Experts Warn

From PJ Media, by Reporter Paula Bolyard, 12 March 2020.

Here is the lede plus three:

Health officials in Italy have issued guidelines for rationing care as hospitals there struggle to keep up with the surge of patients infected with the coronavirus.  Doctors are being told that they'll likely need to deny care to senior citizens and those with other health conditions as the virus explodes across the nation.

Italy has been rocked by the still not-well-understood COVID-29 (sic), with more than 1,200 confirmed cases and 827 deaths—second only to China—and 16 million residents currently under quarantine.

An article published by the Italian College of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care (translated here by Yascha Mounk) warns that "It may be necessary to establish criteria of access to intensive care not just on the basis of clinical appropriateness but inspired by the most consensual criteria regarding distributive justice and the appropriate allocation of limited health resources."  The report goes on to recommend rationing care to certain populations.

Rationing health care is nothing new in Italy and in fact has become an "established trend" in recent years amid an ongoing economic crisis that has strained government resources, including the government-run healthcare system.

I am guessing Italy is not one of those European nations Senator Bernie Sanders looks up to as an example of universal medical care.

Pr Reporter Tim Pearce, at The Washington Examiner, ‘Not a single EU country’ responded to Italian plea for help with coronavirus.  I hope President Trump is aware of this and doing something to help Italy, so they know WE haven't forgotten them.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Let us hope things turn the corner on this, and soon.  Regards  —  Cliff

Continuing Ed For Seniors

For John, BLUF:  I have mentioned this before, as I am sure you know.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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This is a moveable feast.  A Course Catalog comes out from UMass Lowell Continuing Education and I may or may not comment on the paucity of in classroom courses.  The reason this matters is that for Seniors (60 or over) and for Veterans, you can take a course for $30 plus books.  Regular students pay around a grand, plus books.  I think this is a positive benefit in that courses in Continuing Education help keep the older minds more alive and working, and thus add to the health of Seniors.♠

Alas, with the growth of online education the number of in classroom courses has receded.  Under the current interpretation of the law, online courses go for the full amount, even for Seniors and Veterans.♥  Below are the course groupings in the catalogue, the number of courses in each group and the number in the classroom (the column marked $30) and the percentage of in classroom courses. I have marked those areas where the percentage is 20% or less.  There is an exception.  I gave "Intercollegiate Arts and Sciences" a pass as there is only one course offered.

Area	Number	$30	Percent
Accounting	8	4	50%
Art/Computer Graphics	10	0	0%
Art History	5	0	0%
Biological Sciences	8	1	13%
Chemistry	13	9	69%
Computer Science	4	3	75%
Criminal Justice	21	4	19%
Econ	15	3	20%
Electronic Engineering Technology	15	12	80%
English	30	2	7%
Entrepreneurship	2	2	100%
Finance	4	1	25%
Gender Studies	3	0	0%
Health	5	2	40%
History	16	3	19%
Information Technology	53	8	15%
Intercollegiate Arts and Sciences	1	0	0%
Languages	13	0	0%
Legal Studies	20	3	15%
Management	7	3	43%
Marketing	8	6	75%
Mathematics	28	23	82%
Mechanical Engineering Technology	13	9	69%
Operations and Information Systems	5	2	40%
Philosophy	8	1	13%
Physics	3	1	33%
Plastics	5	5	100%
Political Science	12	2	17%
Psychology	28	4	14%
Sociology	12	5	42%
TOTALS	375	118	31%

Now I need to go and ask how many of us Seniors are enrolled this semester.  Stand by.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  I try to make this point to Senator Eileen Donoghue every time she is on City Life.
♥  Senator Donoghue says it is a "color of money" issue.  That is to say, there are different accounts and they can't be mixed.  On the other hand, Chancellor Marty Meehan has shown that he can do practically anything, but he doesn't seem to be able to fix this little problem.

Elderly/Homelessness Conference

For John, BLUF:  A learning experience about the elderly and the homeless.

As previously noted in this blog, Lowell held it's Eighth Keys to Ending Homelessness Conference yesterday, Friday, 12 April, at the UMass Lowell Inn and Conference Center.  The focus was homelessness and the elderly.

The Conference was kicked off by City Manager Bernie Lynch and included talks by State Treasurer Steve Grossman and Aaron Gornstein, Undersecretary of the State Department of Housing and Community Development.  In addition, there were eight breakout sessions, in two phases, and a final panel session with lunch.

Reporter Hiroko Sato wrote up the story for today's edition of The [Lowell] Sun, which can be found here.

The issue is not just homeless people who become elderly, although that is a serious problem.  It is also the fact that the number of people 65 or older is going to be growing out to the year 2050.  In 2010 the percent of the total US population over 64 was 13%.  By 2020 it will be 19.3 percent and by 2040 it will be 20.2 percent—1 in 5 Americans will be 65 or older.  This and other data from the US Census Bureau can be found here.  The last of the Baby Boomers will hit 65 in 2029, but they will be living longer lives and will be with us for quite some time.  Consider the impact on the housing market when all the Baby Boomers begin to sell their homes, and with relatively fewer people coming behind them to purchase those homes.  The question is, with a smaller ratio of working taxpayers to support the Baby Boomers, and with Boomer assets perhaps not being valued as highly after they retire as before, will we find we are facing problems in terms of the ability of Boomers, and those who have gone before to sustain themselves?  There are no magic formulas out there, so we need to be planning now for those days ahead.

And this brings us back to the situation of those who are homeless today.  Being homeless ages people physically, emotionally and mentally.  An indication of the problem is the fact the average life expectancy of homeless people is 48 years old.  Those who are homeless and 50 are more like the average person who is 65.  Plus, for the elderly, additional support services are required, both for the homeless and for those on the verge of being homeless, due to lack of income or some diminishment in capacity.

These are the kinds of issues tackled by the conference and which will need to be tackled at local, state and federal levels.

Conferences are tricky things.  As mentioned in the article, the ramrod for the Lowell Homelessness Conference is Ms Linda King.  She had to be away the second half of this last week and it fell to her volunteer staff, with Ms Kathy Muldoon taking the lead, but others joining in.♠  A good job was done by all.

But, not just the Lowell Homelessness Committee's Conference subcommittee.  There is also the staff at the UMass Lowell Inn and Conference Center, headed up by Ms Carol Scalesse.  The staff prepares the rooms, sets up tables and easels and prepares a light snack for breakfast and a lunch.  Sure, they do use Pepsi products, but aside from that they are great, and do things like cater to vegetarians.

One of the people who stands out in my mind is Mr John Morrison, Audio/Visual Manager for the Inn and Conference Center.  We show up with computers and projectors and he sets them up, provides the projection screens, loads the thumb drives of the presenters and makes sure there are the extension cords needed to do the job.  He is also anticipating our needs, including asking if we need screens for our luncheon panel, or if he should put them away so they don't distract.  When Mr Marc Duci arrives from LTC to video the plenary session, Mr Morrison works with him to make sure all is good to go.  Mr Morrison understands what it means to be a service organization and he provides that service.  Thank you Mr Morrison.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  At the risk of missing someone, other volunteer subcommittee members included Patricia Bergan, Deb Sevigny, Sue Smith, Dan O'Conner, Bruce Akashian, and Ann Scannell.  Susan Rourke is part of small crowd, although she couldn't make this Conference.  A big help to us was Roberta from Lowell DPD, as we scrambled to get it all together.

Conference—Homelessness and the Elderly

For John, BLUF:  Understanding the homelessness situation regarding the elderly.  Come join us.

This Friday, April 12, 2013 - 8:00 AM to 2:30 PM, the City of Lowell will hold its eighth "Keys to Ending Homelessness Conference", this time looking at "Homeless and At-Risk Seniors".

The location will be the UMass Lowell Inn & Conference Center, 50 Warren Street, here in Lowell, MA.

The Keynote Speaker will be Mr Steven Grossman, Treasurer and Receiver General, Commonwealth of Massachusetts.  Also speaking will be Mr Aaron Gornstein, Undersecretary, Massachusetts Department of Housing and Community Development. In addition to the speakers, there are two sets of breakout sets, as follows:

A-1.  Homeless Elders 101
A-2.  Hoarding
A-3.  Financial Management and Resources
A-4.  Case Management and In-Home Clinical Care

B-1.  Homeless Elders 101
B-2.  Housing
B-3.  Health Care
B-4.  Mental Illness and Substance Use

While many of those attending will be professionals in the area of Elder Services or Homelessness, there are issues that might be of benefit to those who have elderly at home, whom they are caring for.

The cost is not that much.  Pre-registration is $25 and registration at the door is $30.  Lunch is included.  To register early, contact Ms Linda King, Lowell Community Development Specialist, at (978) 674-1428, or EMail her at lking@lowellma.gov

Please feel free to come and join the activities.

Regards  —  Cliff

Social Security in our Future

For John, BLUF:  Social Security doesn't fix all problems.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

Over at Power Line is an article by Mr John Hinderacker, esq, on Social Security. It turns out that US Social Security is not going to be self-funded out into the future.

Sorry to tell you this, Baby Boomers.

And, much as it will bite my pocket book, I think going to Chained CPI calculations is a good idea.  Otherwise we will inflate ourselves into even more serious federal debt.

Regards  —  Cliff

Paying for Retirement

For John, BLUF:  A suggestion of a war on the young by at least one state legislature.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

Government spending stories just get better and better.  Here is columnist Walter Russell Mead in a piece titled "Illinois’s Blue Robin Hoods Stealing from the Young to Give to the Old".  The quote lifted by Law Professor Glenn Reynolds is:

After pension reform went down in flames last week, Illinois moved to Plan B: war on the young.  Governor Pat Quinn’s administration claims that the upcoming budget will include major cutbacks on state services to make room for a $1 billion increase in pension spending.  Most notably, education spending will decrease by $400 million, which would make 2013 the third straight year in which education spending has dropped. . . .  Sticking it to either group, the young or the old, isn’t appealing, but the boomers are politically organized and better positioned to fight for their interests, particularly because powerful unions are on their side.  The young, by contrast, are among the least politically active groups in the country, making them much easier for politicians to ignore.  Illinois has obviously chosen the path of least resistance.

I am prepared to believe that the population in Illinois is shrinking, at least in terms of children, but still, $400 million is a chunk of change.  If we assume a teacher's salary, burdened, is around $100,000, that is some 4,000 people (I am assuming the number of administrators remains constant.)  Given 25 children to a classroom, that might be 100,000 less children being educated.

This web site says that from 2010 to 2012 the overall population of Illinois went up almost 40,000, but for a sample of ages (8 through 12) most cohorts dropped about 1,500 in number.  Assuming that is a good average, then maybe 21,000 less students.  I am not sure it adds up.  But, I am sure they know what they are doing.

With the number of older people growing proportionately to those of a working age, and with more working age people dropping out of the work force, we face a problem.  At what point will the ratio shift to the point that working folk will no longer be able to sustain those who are not working?  And, if we are spending less on educating our youth, will they be able to get the jobs needed to help sustain the rest?