Free Passage for International Trade

For John, BLUF:  China is trying to expand its maritime frontiers and this has resulted in confrontations with a number of nearby states.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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China's attempt to seize another island in the South China Sea failed (for now)

From Hot Air, by Reporter John Sexton, 26 August 2023, 5:30 PM.

Here is the lede plus two:

There has been a strategic battle taking place in the South China Sea this year between China and the Philippines.  As you probably know, China has laid claim to most of the South China Sea and over the past decade has been using a strategy called the cabbage strategy to gradually claim individual islands.

The cabbage strategy involves surrounding islands with Chinese boats like the leaves of a cabbage.  China starts with fishing vessels, dozens of which anchor around an island or shoal making it difficult for any other vessels to approach.  Once that’s done, Chinese Coast Guard vessels move in to surround the fishing boats and formally prevent other boats from coming close.  Having established control, the fishing boats go away and sends in construction equipment to militarize the island.

One of the islands China has its eyes on is called Ayungin Shoal or, to foreigners, Second Thomas Shoal. Ayungin Shoal is only a few miles east of Mischief Reef, an area that China has already claimed and heavily militarized.  Both islands are well within the Philippines exclusive economic zone which stretches 200 miles to sea from the coast.

China relies on The Nine Dash Line as its legal authority to claim the whole of the Suoth China Sea as its own.  If China was able to claim at the waters encmpassed by The Nine Dash Line it would put a severe crimp in international ocean, and aviation, traffic.  On the other hand. resisting Chinese expansiono includes military confrontation.

Per Wikipedia, in January 2013, the Philippines initiated arbitration proceedings under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) over a range of issues, including China's historic rights claims inside the nine-dash line.  On 12 July 2016, the tribunal ruled in favor of the Philippines on most of its submissions.

The United States should support other nations in their assertions of their rights in the Suoth China Sea.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

China Unhappy and Defiant

For John, BLUF:  The Chinese didn't accept the outcome.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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South China Sea tribunal:  Key points

Early this morning the Beeb published an article with a lot of bullet points on the outcome of the case the Philippines brought against China in the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague over the South China Sea.

Conflicting claims show in this item from Quartz.  In purple is the Chinese Nine-Dash line, inherited from Chiang Kai-shek and the Kuomintang Party.

Very interesting.

And a likely hot spot for some time to come.

Regards  —  Cliff

Duterte ≠ Trump

For John, BLUF:  This just made life for the next US President more complicated.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Most readers of this blog have not heard of Philippine President Elect Rodrigo Duterte, but once in a while I see him described as the Philippine Trump.  That is a vicious slur.  But, on to the headline from The Cipher Brief, for an article by Ms Erica Evans:

"Duterte in the hot seat"

Here is the lede plus one:

Foul-mouthed strongman, Rodrigo Duterte, declared victory in the Philippines’s presidential election this week after one of his rivals, Grace Poe, conceded to his insurmountable lead.

In the Philippines, his tough-on-crime platform has earned him the nickname “Duterte Harry” – a reference to Clint Eastwood’s “Dirty Harry.”  But Americans know him as “the Filipino Donald Trump” for his populist campaign and disregard for political correctness.

Yes, President Elect Duterte is the one who said that since he was the Mayor (Davao City) he should have been first during the police gang rape of an Australian Missionary.  I am sure he thought he was being funny, but I think it was just a thoughtless and insensitive comment.  Then there is his promise to kill criminals—thousands.

But, beyond that bravado there is the question of foreign policy.  What will be his approach to the problems in the South China Sea and the Chinese appropriation of Philippine territory?  Will we be able to work with President Elect Duterte?  Will we be able to continue to fly missions out of bases in the Philippines?

Regards  —  Cliff