For John, BLUF: I like Ben Carson for President. Nothing to see here; just move along.
From the FiveThirtyEight blog we have a somewhat insightful, if disparaging, look at Dr Ben Carson—"Don’t Take Ben Carson Seriously (Except In Iowa — Maybe)". The Writer is Mr Harry Enten, a senior political writer and analyst for FiveThirtyEight.
“Who is Ben Carson? Where did he come from?” asked CNN’s Jake Tapper after a CNN poll revealed that Carson, a political novice, was running second to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush for the Republican nomination for president in 2016. Carson has also placed second in other national polls, second in Iowa surveys and in the high single digits in New Hampshire.So, here is where Mr Enten gets down to the FiveThirtyEight model and how it figures out who is going to make it and who isn't. It is that model that made FiveThirtyEight what it is today.
So just how seriously should we take Carson’s potential bid for the White House? Seriously enough. He could make some noise, particularly in Iowa. But not seriously enough to believe that he has any real shot of winning the nomination.
Finally — as I mentioned above — it’s very difficult for a candidate who hasn’t held elected office to win a party’s presidential nomination. (FiveThirtyEight’s presidential model looks at experience in elected office in assessing a candidate’s chances. It’s predictive.) Forbes and Robertson, for example, faded after their showings in Iowa and didn’t seriously contend for the nomination. A candidate without elected experience hasn’t been nominated by either major party since Dwight Eisenhower in 1952.Pretty Snarky. Neither did Dwight David Eisenhower. He lead the Anglo-American forces in Central and Northern Europe. Doctor Ben Carson was the first surgeon to successfully separate conjoined twins joined at the head. But, as FiveThirtyEight says, Dr Ben Carson is unlikely to win the Republican nomination. On the other hand, as a Republican, I like him. I would vote for him for President over any known Democrat coming down the road.
And the last time I checked, Carson didn’t win World War II.
Regards — Cliff