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Friday, December 26, 2014

538 Looks At Dr Ben Carson

For John, BLUFI like Ben Carson for President.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

From the FiveThirtyEight blog we have a somewhat insightful, if disparaging, look at Dr Ben Carson"Don’t Take Ben Carson Seriously (Except In Iowa — Maybe)".  The Writer is Mr Harry Enten, a senior political writer and analyst for FiveThirtyEight.

“Who is Ben Carson? Where did he come from?” asked CNN’s Jake Tapper after a CNN poll revealed that Carson, a political novice, was running second to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush for the Republican nomination for president in 2016.  Carson has also placed second in other national polls, second in Iowa surveys and in the high single digits in New Hampshire.

So just how seriously should we take Carson’s potential bid for the White House?  Seriously enough.  He could make some noise, particularly in Iowa.  But not seriously enough to believe that he has any real shot of winning the nomination.

So, here is where Mr Enten gets down to the FiveThirtyEight model and how it figures out who is going to make it and who isn't.  It is that model that made FiveThirtyEight what it is today.
Finally — as I mentioned above — it’s very difficult for a candidate who hasn’t held elected office to win a party’s presidential nomination.  (FiveThirtyEight’s presidential model looks at experience in elected office in assessing a candidate’s chances. It’s predictive.)  Forbes and Robertson, for example, faded after their showings in Iowa and didn’t seriously contend for the nomination.  A candidate without elected experience hasn’t been nominated by either major party since Dwight Eisenhower in 1952.

And the last time I checked, Carson didn’t win World War II.

Pretty Snarky.  Neither did Dwight David Eisenhower.  He lead the Anglo-American forces in Central and Northern Europe.  Doctor Ben Carson was the first surgeon to successfully separate conjoined twins joined at the head.  But, as FiveThirtyEight says, Dr Ben Carson is unlikely to win the Republican nomination.  On the other hand, as a Republican, I like him.  I would vote for him for President over any known Democrat coming down the road.

Regards  —  Cliff

1 comment:

Neal said...

To Mr. Enten I would offer that Barack Obama was elected to POTUS TWICE with no visible experience other than a showcase electoral success in Illinois followed almost at light speed with an elevation to the US Senate...where he was essentially little more than mass occupying space.

The media continues to set the rules for who is "eligible" and "will be successful" for some of our highest government offices. I would suggest that Ben Carson would do very, very well as POTUS because he knows how to surround himself with cerebral extensions to his own intellect and common sense.

The media hypes up the "experience" factor because those who "qualify" under their definitions are likely little more than accomplished members of some good old boys which case...America gets more of the same...just different flavors.