For John, BLUF: The economic future is a lilttle uncertain, and not because of fluxuations in the Stock Market. Current events could damage the economy as we continue to endure a Pandemic and Russia and China threaten force to regain lost territory. Nothing to see here; just move along.
Teases a Recession in 2023
I would have thought the pent up demand and the dearth of workers during the COVID-19 Pandemic would have sustained the economy for several years.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is concerned about rampant inflation, and is thus talkiing about a rate increase, perhaps in March.♠ At the same time, China's Chairman Xi, at a G-20, said the US should not increase interest rates.
Of course there is the issue of war and the impact on the petroleum market. A spike in prices could be detrimental to the world economy. Russia is a major supplier of petroleum to Europe and if that flow is cut off by a Russian invasion of Ukraine then European nations will bid up the price of oil to heat their homes and power their factories.♥
Regards — Cliff
♠ That means it will be more expensive to get a loan, including a home loan.
♥ The decisions of European nations to de-commission nuclear power plants now looks like a mistake in the near- and mid-terms.
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