Do The Dems Have A Strategy?

For John, BLUF:  The threat of impeachment seems to go on and on.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Beto: ‘Yes, I Think There’s Enough Evidence’ for Congress to Impeach Trump

Here is the sub-headline:

O’Rourke voted twice against impeachment proceedings as a member of the House.

From the Blog Legal Insurrection, posted by Ms Mary Chastain, 6 May 2019.

Here is the lede:

2020 presidential candidate Robert O’Rourke became the latest Democrat to call for Congress to begin the process to impeach President Donald Trump after the release of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report.

Either the Democrats have a very good strategy, much of it hidden from view, to be revealed at the proper time, or they have no strategy.

My questions:

• What are they going to do about Vice President Biden, who is, unlike President Trump, a real conservative?
• Assuming the Dems make VEEP Pence go away, like they did Spiro Agnew, is Nancy Pelosi the person they want in the Oval Office?
  • Would she run in 2020?
  • Would she have undue influence over the Convention?
  • Who would be the new Speaker?
• Should Ms Pelosi step down as Speaker, allowing Hillary Clinton to be elected to than position and then sliding into the White House, thus "rectifying" the Presidential Election of 2016?
• What will be the view of the Voters?
• Will the Voters stick with the New President?
• Will the Votes demand a new, fresh, face?
• Will the Voters revolt and go Republican, especially if the economy hiccuped?

I think the best Democratic path is to continue to harass the President, but to take no overt action.  And even that carries risks.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

The Now and Future Democrats

For John, BLUF:  The "Liberals" need to focus on Citizenship as a unifying theme, not their individual identities.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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The Liberal Crackup

Here is the Sub-headline:

Liberals should reject the divisive, zero-sum politics of identity and find their way back to a unifying vision of the common good

I found this 11 August 2017 Wall Street Journal article on Drudge and believe the author, Dr. Mark Lilla, professor of the humanities at Columbia University, is spot on. It is a little long, but it is insightful.

And, it talks about what might prevent Democrats from winning the House and Senate in 2018.

I wonder if the Democrats are hoping that there will be some cataclysmic event, brought on by Donald Trump, that will allow them to say (1) see, I told you so, and (2) vote for us because we are all calm middle of the road people (Maxine Waters, Nancy Pelosi, DWS, Chuck Schumer and Conn's Senator Richard Blumenthal aside).

I am thinking 2018 should be an interesting year, locally and nationally.

Hat tip to the Drudge Report.

Regards  —  Cliff

Whether the Republicans

For John, BLUF:  Nothing in the future is guaranteed.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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The Washington Post has an article on Republican fissures.  The title is "Some evangelicals in Republican Party are feeling left out, see no standard-bearer".

Maybe these two paragraphs say it best:

The disconnect between social conservatives and the GOP has become a “chasm,” said Gary Bauer, who ran for the Republican presidential nomination in 2000 and is now head of the Campaign for Working Families.  He pointed to the party’s two most recent presidential nominees, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, as examples of candidates who were touted initially as having broad appeal to centrists in the general election but ultimately never inspired evangelicals and lost.

“Values voters have been treated as the stepchildren of the family, while the party has wanted to get on with so-called more electorally popular ideas,” Bauer said.  “The Republican base will not tolerate another candidate foisted upon us as a guy who can win.”

That is my link embedded in the quote.

I would suggest that part of the reason Senator Scott Brown lost his second election was because those socially conservative voters stayed home the second time, while the Democrats turned out over 600,000 additional voters.

YEAR	BROWN	DEM	INDY	OTHER	BLANK	TOTAL
2010	1,168,178	1,060,861	22,388	1155	1145	2,253,727
2012	1,458,048	1,696,346	--	2,159	27,643	3,184,196

Senator Brown picked up less than half as much.  Not a good sign.  And the big uptick in "Blank" ballots, re Senator, is, to me, a telling sign.

So, is it Dr Ben Carson for the Republicans?  I hear from folks who say yes.

I think the deeper issue is whether or not the Republican Party can survive half social conservative and half libertarian.  And, if the Republican Party crashes, what will it do to Democrats?  Will they stay united, following the Reid/Pelosi line, or will there be fracturing?

Regards  —  Cliff

Personal Income in 2010

Maybe things were better than we thought:

Personal income rose in 2010 in all but four of the nation’s 366 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.  Personal income in the metropolitan portion of the United States rose 2.9 percent in 2010 after falling 1.9 percent in 2009.  Personal income growth in 2010 ranged from 10.1 percent in Elizabethtown, Kentucky to -0.9 percent in Grand Junction, Colorado.  Inflation, as measured by the national price index for personal consumption expenditures, accelerated to 1.8 percent in 2010 from 0.2 percent in 2009.

Here is the BEA news release.  PDF Definitions and Tables available at this link.

We fall into the "Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH", number 10 in size across the fruited plain (2010 population of 4,552,402, or an increase of 3.67%) and stretches from Boston to Worcester to Manchester (thus including parts of MA, RI and NH).

The BEA attributes the growth in the top four areas (Elizabethtown, KY, Lawton, OK, Manhattan, KS, and Hinesville, GA) to government spending, and, in particular, military spending.  Frankly, I would point to BRAC Realignments and suggest that it is robbing Peter to pay Paul. This isn't Keynes, but anti-Keynes.

Regards  —  Cliff

California in Trouble?

Over at Forbes Magazine we have this article, "California Suggests Suicide; Texas Asks: Can I Lend You a Knife?"

This comes via Tom Smith at The Right Coast.

As to the "rent seeking" comment, in this case it refers to people seeking to make money with Green Industries by having the government over-regulate and overtax other businesses, like coal, for example.

I gave up my California residency 16 years ago, so in a way it is not important to me, except as an example of what we should be avoiding here in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.

Regards  —  Cliff

Another New Congressman Goes to Washington

Elizabeth Scalia, over at the First Things blog,♠ wrote about Congressman Elect Allen West going to Washington to get his Freshman Orientation.

As you may recall, as Lieutenant Colonel West he was fined $5,000 for threatening a captured Iraqi insurgent, leading the insurgent to divulge that an attack was planned for the next day.  Colonel West then resigned his commission.

I wonder if Congressman Elect Allen West will be invited to join the Congressional Black Caucus?  My guess is that the Caucus will stick by its invitation to the two newly elected Black Republicans in the US House of Representatives, one of them being Allen West.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  She formerly blogged as The Anchoress.

Ike Skelton Lost

Now that was a surprise, and a bit of a disappointment.  Democratic Party Member and Representative from Missouri's Fourth District, Ike Skelton, wen down to defeat.  He has always been a friend of the military and someone who has pushed forward issues like professional military education.  Erudite.  He is someone I respected.  Elections are always a mixed blessing.

I got this via Instapundit, who referenced First Things.

Regards  —  Cliff

What Happened Here

The headline for this Ann Althouse blog post is "What media characters are repositioning out in front of today's elections?"

Her prize example is News Analyst and Commentator Chris Matthews of MSNBC and hailing from Philly, to which I am off in a few minutes.  The bonus is a video of Mr Matthews on a different MSNBC program.

Then there is Bill Maher as a "proud Westerner".  I am still digesting this one.

Regards  —  Cliff

Predictions?

I guess I should step out and state what I think.

My conservative opinion is a ten seat Republican Party majority in the US House of Representatives and a diminished Democratic Party majority in the US Senate.  This is my 60% view.

My 30% view is that the Republicans will have a strong presence in the US House of Representatives and with the help of Joe Liebermann, a majority in the US Senate.

However, my 10% view is that if Christine O'Donnell, of Delaware, wins, then it will be an extinction event.♠

However, let us be honest with ourselves.  The real questions come in January of 2011.  The Republicans will have to decide (1) who put them in office and (2) how they should deal with President Barack Obama.

I am not convinced that the Senate Republican leadership understands the power and wrath of the Tea Parties around the nation and those who are tea Party fellow travelers.  I think that Representatives John Boehner and Eric Cantor, over in the House of Representatives, do get it.

Then there is dealing with the Executive Branch.  There is a difference between gridlock and shut-down.  It is one thing to resist initiatives from the Administration and the Democrats in Congress.  It is another to stop the funding of all Government agencies or even the majority of them.  It is one thing to decide the Department of Education should go away and another to stop funding the Department of State or Defense or the payment of authorized entitlements.  I urge my fellow Republicans to be strong in their convictions, but to be flexible in making sure the government functions.

So, I will be on the road as the polls close, enroute to a proposal writing effort in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania.  I am hoping to celebrate Republican victories across the fruited plain.  But, then it will quickly be time to figure out how to govern. For the RepublicansPoliticians on Capital Hill, the people to be watching are those associated with the Tea Parties, because, if the Republicans do very well on Tuesday it will be because of the sentiments captured in the ideas of the Tea Parties.

UPDATE:  What to look for tomorrow night.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  But, due to the wisdom of the Founding Fathers, only one-third of the US Senate will turn over in any given general election.  The Class III Senators who are up for (re)election tomorrow turn over on 3 January 2011.  As of today, in Senatorial Class III 18 are Republicans and 16 are Democrats.  The odds of the Republicans keeping all 18 of their seats and picking up all the Democratic seats are between slim and none.  Thus, no veto-proof majority.

Unlucky or Uneducated?

What we have is a Mr Brian Beutler (Talking Points Memo) saying "Sarah Palin Calls Joe Miller A Lost Cause, Quotes Scopes Monkey Trial Attorney."  That would be the famous Clarence Darrow.♠

Law Professor Ann Althouse thinks that Mr Beutler is patronizing and ignorant, at the same time.

My question is, if Ms Palin is the ignorant person TPM thinks she is, then isn't this TPM post and like blog posts the same as shooting fish in a barrel?

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  As I recall, the whole John Scopes trial was an agreed deal in order to bring attention to the Tennessee Town where it took place.  It was great theater.

Final Days

I don't think the campaigning is so much getting ugly as getting surreal.

Look at this exchange at Legal Insurrection.♠

Hat tip to Instapundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  I definitely need to stop reading lawyer blogs.

Ballot Initiatives

Here is my take:

1. Issue 1 is about the adding of the Sales Tax to alcohol sales.  I take this as a weak action on the part of the General Court.  Thinking that they needed more money, our elected representatives added a tax to something that a lot of people see as evil.  They should not have done this.♠
2. Issue 2 is about affordable housing.  The current approach is broken.  However, abolishing 40B is not the solution.  If we abolish 40B we will solve the smaller problem and open up, again, the larger economic problem that exists because of NIMBY attitudes, while the General Court hides from this problem.  Those outside the General Court who see the economic problems with affordable housing will focus their energy on fixing this problem, rather than moving on to other economic problems that need our attention—just look at the article in today's Boston Globe "Ideas" Section to see how we let a major opportunity slip through our fingers.  The fact is, if we are standing still we are slipping behind.  Too many of us have wanted to keep things the same, and thus we have been losing ground.
3. Issue 3 is about rolling back the income tax.  This is a freebee.  If this passes, the General Court will either ignore it or override it.  It is that simple.  The advantage of a yes vote is that it will send a signal to politicians that the voters want to reduce taxes, and thus reduce government spending.  Some will wish to just slash spending.  I think that is the wrong approach.  On the other hand, there are major changes to the operations in State Government that could save us a fair chunk of change.  It will mean laying off some Government workers, but the fact is that personnel cuts will be needed if we are to reduce the cost of Government.  This is not something ethically or morally wrong.  It is what we owe the taxpayers when it means a better use of the taxpayers' money.  On the other hand, personnel cuts will not solve our problems.  Don't let yourself be fooled.  Taking a new look at Government, based upon understanding the needs, values and responsibilities of each worker and section and department, summed up to each cabinet officer, will be needed to do better.  That and an understanding that rice bowls will need to be broken and some people will need to take on new responsibilities and divest themselves of old ones.

Good luck to all of us on Tuesday and fie on those who won't take the time to vote.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  I do think that when the General Court is considering a tax increase on any goods the General Court should hold fire until the Commonwealth's Attorney General, in concert with the Treasurer and the Secretary of State, has submitted an economic report that talks to the consequences of the application of the tax, to include the soft avoidance of buying in New Hampshire and the hard avoidance of actual smuggling.

MarylandDelaware Senate Race

UPDATE:  You know how once in a while you have a sense that something isn't exactly right, but then you let it slide?  In this case I did and I thank Renee Aste for sending me a note in the form of a comment.

I have been twice asked this week what I thought of the Christine O'Donnell / Chris Coons contest in MarylandDelware.  This is Vice President Joe Biden's former seat.

Both times I was asked for my opinion I went with the conventional wisdom—Ms O'Donnell will lose.

One person asked me if I was commenting from the point of view of trying to govern or from the joy of the game and I admitted that in fact, I do enjoy politics and the ups and downs that go with it.

But, back to Ms O'Donnell.  I see her as the bellwether. If she pulls it out, it will likely mean an "extinction event" for the Democrats in Congress.  If Ms O'Donnell wins, than, I would think that a lot of seats will change hands.

But, that said, I think that Sharon Angle is going to beat Harry Reid whatever the outcome in MarylandDelaware.  For some reason I am interested in that race.  Probably it is because once again someone who was dismissed early on by the (dare I say it?) elites has done a pretty good job battling the incumbent.  In fact, though, Sharon Angle was not the unknown grandmother she was portrayed as.  Taking on the State Governor over an issue of constitutionality while in the state legislature is not ingénue league action.

As for local predictions, I am thinking.

Regards  —  Cliff

Thanks, Sam

Keeping the history alive, Renee Aste has short post linking to The Phoenix about the Sam Meas campaign.  I am really pleased that Sam Meas elected to run and I was proud to have his bumper sticker on my car.

Thanks, Sam.

Regards  —  Cliff

Campaign Money

This stuck me as interesting.  From all the talk I thought it was the opposite.

Hat tip to Ann Althouse.

Regards  —  Cliff

Poor Taste

I thought that this item in The Lowell Sun about a local board endorsing a particular candidate showed that the board acted in bad taste.  All quite legal.

That said, I wonder what their backup plan is if their endorsed candidate loses?  Lose?  Couldn't comprehend such a thing in our Commonwealth.

Regards  —  Cliff

Nanny and Her Lawyer

Out in California there is a little dustup over an illegal immigrant as maid for a candidate for public office.

Given the way this has been playing out, including Gloria Allred on the Greta van Susteren show (On The Record) on Fox News Channel, I thought this was a great comment:

I’m perfectly happy to let Nicky Diaz stay in the US, if we can deport Gloria Allred, instead.

The person making the comment is a blogger out in the Sunshine State, Dale Franks.

Hat tip to Errol Phillips, down in Sarasota, who either picked this up directly or via the Instapundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Those "Tea Party" (Like) Crowds

From over at the Althouse Blog we have some observations about the crowd at President Obama's speech at UW (at Madison), earlier in the week.  Basicaly it is about the fact that the crown in attendance looks like what the mainstream media and Democrats say a Tea Party gathering looks like—very "white".

Regards  —  Cliff

"Nonpartisan Rally"

In today's "Political Notebook" we have an item on a "nonpartisan rally" to be held at the Lincoln Memorial on Saturday, 2 October.

From the item in The Boston Globe we have this:

Organizers say more than 400 organizations — ranging from labor unions to faith, environmental and gay rights groups — are coming together to advocate for job creation, quality education, and justice.

And then this:

Although organizers describe the rally as nonpartisan, they also hope to raise awareness of their concerns before political contests that are expected to sweep out many Democrats.

So what makes a rally "nonpartisan"?  Speaking of the Glenn Beck rally last month the newspaper of record for the hub of the universe says:

Though also billed as nonpolitical, the rally was widely viewed as a protest against the policies of President Obama and Democrats.

So, it would seem that if the rally is by "progressives" it is "nonpartisan".  And they are going to charge us in good hard Yankee dollars for this kind of thing starting next year?

UPDATE:  As Kad Barma correctly notes in his comment (Comment 1), the on-line headline no longer has the headline "Nonpartisan rally set for Lincoln Memorial" but rather now reads "Activists to hold rally for progressive policies", although the tagline that come up does come up on my Safari Browser still says, on the tab, "Nonpartisan rally set for Lincoln...". I say kudos to The Globe on-line editors to picking up their initial mistake and trying to correct it.

Regards  —  Cliff

This Can't Be Right!

Rasmussen reports that Ron Johnson is 12 points ahead of Representative Russ Feingold in the race for US Senator from Wisconsin.  In the interest of full disclosure, Rep Feingold and my wife are from the same city, Janesville, although the Representative is younger than my wife.  Otherwise, with the increased experience, he might be doing better.

But, Russ Feingold down 12?  This must be a mistake.  A typo.  A computer glitch.  I am blaming software developed by Kad Barma. :-)

Hat tip to the Instapundit.

Regards  —  Cliff