For John, BLUF: I am suspicious of anyone claqiming to know what is going on in the Presidential Race. Nothing to see here; just move along.
Here is the sub-headline:
Interestingly, the suburban vote may not be one of them.
From The Old Gray Lady, by Columnist Thomas B. Edsall, 23 Sepotember 2020.
Here is the lede plus five:
There are at least five reasons Joe Biden’s consistent lead over Donald Trump does not guarantee him a lock on the White House.
First, there are indications that Trump’s base of support — whites without college degrees — is more energized and committed to voting this year than key Democratic constituencies. And there is also evidence that polling does not reflect this.
Second, Latinos, who are key to the outcome in several crucial states — Arizona and Florida, for example — have shown less support for Biden than for past Democratic nominees. Many Hispanic voters seem resistant to any campaign that defines them broadly as “people of color.”
Third, absentee voting is expected to be higher among Democrats than Republicans, subjecting their ballots to a greater risk of rejection, a fate more common to mailed-in votes than to in-person voting.
Fourth, the generic Democratic-Republican vote (“Would you be more willing to vote for a Republican or Democratic candidate for Congress?”) through early July favored Democrats by more than 10 points, but has since narrowed to 6 points.
Fifth, the debates will test Biden’s ability to withstand three 90-minute battles against an opponent known for brutal personal attacks.
Since we are all free to identify as we please, I identify with the "déclassé base". The Dems have been putting us down since before the "Bitter Clingers" comment.
If Michael Moore is worried the puppet masters apparatchiks at DNC Hq should be worried.
As for Blacks and Latinos, if you and your mates are doing OK now, or recently, then Donald Trump's "What do you have to lose?" makes some sense. And, I suspect, Blacks and Hispanics are not a single package, but rather two cultural groups, competing for attention and power. Are they additive, or are they competitors for a somewhat restricted set of rewards from Congress?
There is the fact that DJT wields the Saul Alinsky "Rules" better than the Democrats. Look at the SCOTUS vacancy. The President had the perfect reaction to RBG's passing. Then, no nominee named until after internment. And potential nominees who will put Senator Harris in an awkward corner, during Committee Hearings.
If COVID-19 is the key, then New York and New Jersey and Connecticut will be in the Trump Camp. Those states, allowed to do it their way, have done it poorly.
Then, there is the media. They discredit themselves daily. I understand The Old Gray Lady is now backing away from their claims re the 1619 Project.
The Columnist seemed to downplay education as an issue, but I think Winnie the Flu has made it an important issue, especially as kids go back to school, or not.
And, finally, there is "Finally, there are many Americans who do not believe that Donald Trump, or the modern Republican Party, will allow a fair election.". With Democratic Party states allowing "Mail In" ballots, and extra days to count and ballot harvesting, you think Republicans are sanguine? No, we are not. After one election a poll worker told us my Absentee Ballot was allowed, my Wife's not. Mailed the same day, at the same Post Office. In our Commonwealth the SecState distinguishes between Absentee and Mail In. You need a Philadelphia Lawyer to get an Absentee ballot. Mail In? No sweat. I will skip over write in campaigns.
Aside from that, no strong opinions.
Regards — Cliff
