The Dissatisfied Sometimes Move

For John, BLUF:  People who are unhappy with theeir local governments are moving to places they find more congeniel.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

---

The Great Divorce? 2.6 Million Fled Counties That Voted For Biden

From Issues and Insights, by I & I Editorial Board, 19 April 2023.

Here is the lede plus one:

Is the country separating itself into two distinct camps?  One increasingly leftist and the other trying desperately to cling to traditional American values?  Census data seem to show that it very well could be underway. Last week, we commented on recent population data showing that people have been fleeing urban areas, noting that these are mostly Democratically controlled, and we pointed out that people have also been moving from blue states to red.

But we wanted to go deeper and get more precise numbers.  So, we matched Census net migration data from mid-2020 through mid-2022 for all the nation’s 3,000-plus counties (or their equivalents) and compared that with how these counties voted in 2020.  Our working assumption is that the results of the incredibly divisive 2020 election would be a good barometer of the devoutly held political views in those counties.

What we found was striking: There has been a vast migration out of counties that voted for Joe Biden into those counties that voted to reelect Donald Trump.

Census data show a net internal migration of almost 2.6 million (2,584,459 to be exact) from blue counties to red since Biden was elected.  (These figures don’t count immigrants or births or deaths, just those Americans moving from one location to another.)

Here are some of the findings from their look at the data:

• More than 61% of the counties that voted for Biden in 2020 lost population, while 65% of Trump-supporting counties gained population.
• Of the 555 counties Biden won, 335 (or 61%) lost population due to internal migration, our analysis found. Of the 2,589 counties that Trump won, 1,675 (or 65%) gained population.
• Two Biden-voting counties that lost the most from net migration were Los Angeles County, which was down 363,760, and Cook County, Illinois, down 200,718. While many of the blue counties that lost population were urbanized, the exodus was widespread and nationwide, including many far more sparsely populated liberal areas.
• In contrast, the biggest loss in any red county was Jefferson Parish, Louisiana, down just 18,470, followed by Worcester County, Maryland, which is in the southern part of the state, down only 17,545.
• In 13 states that had a net loss of population, red counties nevertheless showed gains. In California, which saw a massive net outflow of 871,127 people in just the past two years, counties that backed Trump had a net gain of 8,412.  New Jersey suffered a loss of 107,749 over the past two years, but counties in the Garden State that voted for Trump gained 22,507.  Michigan lost 43,188 overall, but its red counties had a net gain of 28,091.

Does this mean there will be a shift in voting for President?  That is not obvious.  The migrants may be moving away from "Blue" problems, but they may be bringing "Blue" attitudes with them.  A friend of mine in New Hampshire last week wrote about a quiet little town that attracted people from Masschusetts, who brought with them a desire for curbs and sidewalks and traffic lights and soon taxed the locals out of the town.

On the other hand, the recent wilding in Chicago may be the kind of thing that causes residents to change their minds on law and order and to move to find it, thus changing their political orientation at least somewhat.

However, businesses closing in downtown areas may also cause some to flee from those areas.  For example, Whole Foods announced in early April that it is closig its flagship San Francisco store over employee safety concerns.

The reason this matters is the impact of geography on the elections of Presidents.  Each state automatically gets two Electors, and then more based upon popultion. As population flows out of California or New York, those states may lose Electors, while other states gain Electors.  Mr William A. Galston, writing in The Wall Street Journal, tells us "What Drives Political Polarization".  Per Mr Glston, "A new study suggests that the jobs gaps between rural and urban places is a key."

In a way, internal migration is a way for politics to work itself out.  Small groups, which can not influence their own local governments can move and help influence the overall national approach by uniting with like minded people in their new locations.

November 2032 will tell us if there is an impact on voting patterns.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Jacksonian Voters

For John, BLUF:  Yes, it is time for Republicans and other Trump voters to understand what they have in common.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

---

Where'd you go, Ohio? How a swing state went red

From The Washington Examiner, by Reporter Salena Zito, 1 August 2021, 12:00 AM.

Here is the lede plus two:

The old adage in politics used to be, “As Ohio goes, so goes the nation.”  And for the most part, since the start of the 20th century, the Buckeye State had earned that adage, only twice failing to support the national presidential winner — once in 1944 and again in 1960.

That all changed last November when Joe Biden became the first person since 1960 to win the presidency without carrying Ohio.  Many in the Washington, D.C.-based political class decided that the people of Ohio had changed.

Well, they haven’t.  This misapprehension comes from many Washington journalists having more of a cultural connection with the Democratic candidates they cover than with the voters.  The key to understanding Ohio in 2021, and its election in 2022, is to understand how the political parties have changed.

So, we hve a sea change in politics in Ohio.  While it didn't change the outcome of the 2020 Election, it could play a future role.  Thus it is worth paying attention to the change.  That does not mean the Democratic Party can do anything about it, but it would help to understand it.

Further down in the article, Report Zito advances the thesis that Republicans are becoming Jacksonians, while the Democrats are moving away from our 7th President:

More than 20 years ago, Walter Russell Mead identified a certain type of American as “Jacksonian,” after the former Democratic president of the 19th Century, identifying their political attitudes with a region that overlaps with much of Appalachia.  Jacksonianism originated with the Scotch-Irish who had come to the country in its early days and settled there.  Many of the later Irish and Italian immigrants, who came to work in factories around the turn of the last century, were eventually assimilated into this culture and adopted Jacksonian values, including a sense of self-reliance, a distrust of authority, patriotism, loyalty to community, and admiration for the police and military.

“Jacksonians were attracted to law and order Republicans such as Nixon, or the patriotic anti-communist, Ronald Reagan,” [Youngstown State University political science professor Paul] Sracic said.  "But they usually considered themselves Democrats since they tended to be working class and associated the Republican Party with the wealthy.  Trump converted the Republican Party into the Jacksonian Party; this change is likely permanent, and future Republican candidates will adopt this message.”

This brings us to the Pauline Kael quote from back in 1972:

I live in a rather special world.  I only know one person who voted for Nixon.  Where they are I don't know.  They're outside my ken.  But sometimes when I'm in a theater I can feel them.

Yes, there is a cultural circle that does not have empathy for Republicans.  In fact, in that circle many think of Republicans as deplorables.  However, we are a diverse nation and while there are inter-pentatrations, we tend to group in regions.

It might reduce the back and forth rancor a bit if the Main Stream Media were more aware of the "other" America.  It might not change political minds, but it might allow for a better understanding of each other's viewpoints.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff