A Relook at Voting History

For John, BLUF:  An interesting dive into history that looks at a big political myth.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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The Goldwater landslide myth

Here is the sub-headline:

Alabama political columnist needs a history lesson

From Don Surber Substack, by Reporter Don Surber, 15 October 2024.

Here is the lede plus ten:

It’s that time in the presidential election year when lazy journalists roll out their frightening fairy story about Nixon’s southern strategy. The fable is meant to portray Republicans as racists. It is of course a lie but it goes like this, as reported by Steve Flowers whose weekly column appears in over 60 Alabama newspapers. He served 16 years in the state legislature.

He wrote:

Lyndon Johnson was the Democrat nominee for president. Johnson carried 44 states and won the presidency by a landslide. Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona carried only his home state and the five deep south states, including Alabama. Goldwater carried Alabama overwhelmingly, thus the label given to the Republican victory in the south was ironically the Goldwater Landslide.

The so-called “Solid South” had been Democratic more out of tradition and protocol than philosophy. Both national parties took the south for granted in national elections. The Democrats ignored us because we were in the barn and the Republicans ignored us for the same reason.

The 1964 election was the turning point when the deep south states voted for Barry Goldwater. The south has never looked back. It was the race issue that won them over. Goldwater and the Republican party captured the race issue.

Let us look at the facts.

Goldwater was one of only 6 Republican senators who opposed the Civil Rights Act of 1964. The other 27 voted for the act — clearly a higher percentage of the support than the Democrats who split 44-23 on passage of the law. The two-thirds majority was necessary to overcome a Democrat filibuster.

Goldwater indeed carried 5 of the 11 Confederate states with his stand against civil rights. Four years later, Nixon too carried 5 of the 11 Confederate states.

None of them, however, were the 5 states Goldwater carried. Those five states all went to a Democrat which shows that if Nixon had a Southern strategy of wrangling klansmen into the Republican Party, he failed miserably.

For example, Goldwater received 87% of the vote in Mississippi in 1964. Four years later, Nixon received less than 14% of the vote in that state.

Of course, Nixon had no such designs on the South. He was an ardent supporter of civil rights as vice president and therefore, President of the Senate.

This is different from how the "Nixon Southern Strategy" is normally portrayed.

It should be pointed out that the Candidacy of Alabama Governor George Wallace iin 1968 impacted who got which Elecoral College votes.

This year we are seeing such blocks breaking up as votes look to issues rather than to racial groups.

Regards  —  Cliff

Running Against Ms Harris, Alternative View

Mr Trump's private life has not been off limits in 2016, 2020 or today.  An important question for Republicans in the 2024 Presidential Race is if Democratic Nominee Harris' personal life should be off limits.  Will the Republicans gain more votes by scuffing her up or by walking past the issue in a dignified manner.  The answer turns on how we view the female voting block.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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YOU DON’T HIT A GIRL

From According to Hoyt, by Author Sarah Hoyt, 25 July 2024.

Here is the lede plus seven:

I’m tired. Maybe the fact that Canada is burning and in the air again has to do with this, or maybe it is the eternal wishful stupidity of the right.  Could be either or.

Unfortunately this means I have a fever, which lately happens when I’m having an auto-immune outbreak.

For those of you who are new here, when I get a fever it’s like when other people are on prednisone.  I lose what little governor I have. , Also, because my head hurts, I become very short on patience.

What does this mean?  Well– The old hands will tell you.

It means I roll up my sleeves, turn the Heinlein picture to the wall and speak without prettifying it for the sensitive souls.  I’m sorry.  But in case I haven’t mentioned it, I’m tired.

On facebook, someone took offense at my “Getting it out of the way” post.  First at my saying that Kamala probably has less recent African ancestry than I do — and mine isn’t that recent.  It’s someone who comments here, but he primly informed me that a little research would have prevented my embarrassing faux pas, since her father is of Jamaican ancestry so, obviously she has recent African ancestry.

Head>desk, repeat with gusto.  He then insisted the “cast of her father’s features” meant he was black.  I know that what y’all are conditioned to think of as “black” reads as “What?” to me, but seriously, the man looks Mediterranean with some English and I checked with people born here.  Also, I’m not going to post my own family photos, but the side that so far as we know (unless that’s the tiny amount of Nigerian in my 23 and me.  Yes, that’s right.  I’m a princess!) has no African blood looks more African than Kamala’s father.  Because, well… Portugal is a very mixed place, but also because what American’s consider “black” is not.

But even so, my contention in making that statement was not to dispute one-drop rules, because frankly who cares, but to argue that Kamala is no more black than I am:  She’s not black American by culture or ancestry.  Meaning that as far as there is a common (and there is) experience among Americans of (some) African ancestry whose ancestors were brought here as slaves, she ain’t got it.  She got made “black” because Joe wanted a “black woman” vice president and it was her or the “real governor of Georgia.”  That was it.  Which is disingenuous.

For those who don't follow Sarah, she is an immigrant from Portugal, having come here initially as a high school exchange student.  There is much more to the blog post.  Read the whole thing.

I take Ms Hoyt's point about is Vice President Harris Black.  When I look at her, or listen to her, I do not think Black.  I think Indian Subcontinent.  I am sure some would suggest I am in some form of denial.  Perhaps I am.  However, in my dillusion I am not denigrating her.  I liked Governoors Bobby Jindal and Nicky Haley and I liked Vivek Ramaswamy.

And, Vice President Harris was mentored, may still be being mentored, by the smartest politician in California, and perhaps in the US, former Assembly Speaker Willie Brown.

Besides the issue of is Ms Harris a Black candidate or a Middle Class "White Adjacent" candidate is the question of if her previous sex life is fair game for criticism.  I think it is disrespectful of her Husband. : Blogger Hoyt thinks we should not be delicate about this, just as Democrats and the Media (and the courts) have not held back in going after Mr Trump's private life.  We are in the big leagues now.

I still wish to focus on policy and Ms Harris' policy record as VEEP, Senator and California Attorney General. : For others, your milage may differ.  The question is, will US female voters clutch their pearls or will they be willing to take a hard 360 degree look at Ms Harris?

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Consumer Advocate Ralph Nader Goes Thumb Down

For John, BLUF:  Consumer Advocate Ralph Nader wants to thrwart Mr Donld Trump's run for the Presidency, no matter what.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Nader urges judge to imprison Trump, citing grave threat to democracy

Here is the sub-headline:

Ralph Nader calls for a prison sentence for Donald Trump, arguing his actions endanger the peaceful transfer of power.

From Nation of Change, by Reporter Alexis Sterling, 4 July 2024.

Here is the lede plus two:

Ralph Nader, the renowned consumer advocate and attorney, has called on the New York judge presiding over Donald Trump’s hush money trial to sentence the former president to prison. Nader argues that the case for jail time is “open and shut” and asserts that Trump poses a grave threat to the peaceful transfer of presidential power and to democracy itself.

Nader, along with constitutional law expert Bruce Fein, addressed their concerns in a letter to New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan. They urged the judge to exercise his discretion and impose a prison sentence of up to four years based on the circumstances of the felonies and the character of the offender. “Your task is to ensure that the sentence matches the character of the offender, including his clear and present danger to the peaceful transfer of presidential power,” the letter stated.

Nader released the letter on June 28, the same day the U.S. Supreme Court’s right-wing majority ruled that current and former presidents are entitled to sweeping immunity from criminal prosecution. This decision complicated the hush money case and the separate election-subversion case led by Special Counsel Jack Smith.

Candidate Donald Trump is accused of paying hush money to Ms Stormy Daniels and Lawyer Ralph Nader wants him locked away for it?  What about Mr Hunter Niden, who his Baby Moma, Ms Lunden Roberts, claims he offered her hush money in exchange for a Non-Disclosure Agreement?  Should Mr Hunter Biden go to prison?  I am sure the disclosure of this indiscretion would impact votes for his Father.

No, this is about animosity toward Republican Candidate Donald Trump.  This proposal is unworthy of Mr Nader.

And, Candidate Trump would not be the first to run for President from Prison.  In the Comments ChetDude_Redux2 (KootenayCoyote) noted:

The ONLY Constitutional qualifications for a pResident is to be born as a citizen, over 35 years of age with 14 year's continuous residence in the U.S.

A felony conviction (if upheld, which is possibly unlikely) does not disqualify someone from being (s)elected pResident.

The last 3rd party candidate to seriously threaten the power structure, who got the highest percentage of the vote, ran from a prison cell, Eugene Debs, who was put there by Wilson's Espionage Act, the same execrable law that USAmerica used to persecute Julian Assange for 14 years and that Obama used to imprison the most whistleblowers in history.

The decision on th susitability of Mr Donald J Trump to be President of these United States should be left to those with the highest office, the Voters.

Regards  —  Cliff

Farewell NYC

For John, BLUF:  Did the Empire State shoot itself in the foot by going after Mr Donald Trump?  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Kevin O’Leary says he will no longer invest in ‘loser’ New York after Trump verdict

From The Hill, by Reporter Miranda Nazzaro, 19 February 2024, 8:17 PM ET.

Here is the lede plus one:

“Shark Tank” investor Kevin O’Leary ripped into what he called “loser” New York and vowed to no longer invest in the state, when asked about a New York court’s $355 million verdict against former President Trump last week.

Trump, his business and his top executives — including the former president’s sons — were dealt a major blow last Friday when Judge Arthur Engoron ordered him to pay more than $355 million for conspiring to alter his net worth to receive tax and insurance benefits.  The order also blocks Trump from participating in New York business for three years.

“This award, I mean, just leaving the whole Trump thing out of it and seeing what occurred here … And I’m no different than any other investor, I’m shocked at this,” O’Leary said in an interview Monday with Fox Business.  “I can’t even understand or fathom the decision at all.  There’s no rationale for it.”

The award was part of New York Attorney General Letitia James’s (D) lawsuit against the former president, the Trump organization and his executives based on more than a decade of fraud and capped off a months-long civil fraud trial in the state.

O’Leary, the chairman of O’Leary Ventures, argued New York was “already a loser state,” citing policy, high taxes and uncompetitive regulation as primary reasons.

“It was already on the top of the list of being a loser state.  I would never invest in New York now,” O’Leary said.  “And I’m not the only person saying that.”

Here is the Epoch Times report on the same srory.  And, Not he Bee.

Remember Mr Trump's signature catch phrase.  "Thet're not after me.  They are after you?  I am just in the way."  I think for a lot of voters that rings true.

Time will tell if Mr O'Leary's prediction comes true.  In the mean time, I don't see how the levied fines can not have an impact on Mr Trump's businesses.  In the mean time, where does Mayor Eric Adams turn the next time he needs an ice skating rink rehabilitated.

Regards  —  Cliff

Reading the Room

For John, BLUF:  If you didn't think this Bill was DOA, you didn't realize President Biden wants his cake and to eat it too.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Here’s Why the Senate Border Security Bill Was ‘Dead on Arrival’

Here is the sub-headline:

Illegal immigrants by the millions are entering the United States, as Congress is unable to fix loopholes, and President Joe Biden refuses to do so.

From The Epoch Times, by Investigative Reporter Mark Tapscott, 8 February 2024, Updated 9 February 2024.

Here is the lede plus four:

On Feb. 6, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.) said that a border security bill created by a bipartisan group of senators was “dead on arrival.”

When Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) announced on Feb. 4 that he and two colleagues had agreed on a comprehensive border security bill, he lauded it as a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” to stop the flood of illegal immigrants entering the United States that began in 2021 at the beginning of President Joe Biden’s term.

Mr. Lankford said he thought that he, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.)—after four months of arduous closed-door negotiations—had done something that recalled the great compromises that once defined the Senate, pleasing conservatives and liberals alike.

But two days later, Mr. Johnson said the bill was even “worse than expected.”

Going by their comments, it was as if the Sooner State’s senior senator and Mr. Johnson were reading two entirely different bills.

The US Southern Border is like a seive, and has been since January 2020.  In Fiscal Year 2023♠ we had 2.8 million illegal immigrants.  In December of 2023 it was 302,392 illegal immigrants (or 3,628704 over a year, not counting the "got aways").

The reform bill has issues.  Here is a list, from Senator Mike Lee of Utah.  Taking an example, the proposed bill would provide emergency action if we logged 5,000 illegal immigrants for seven days in a row.  One person short of 5,000 would provide 1,824,635 illegal immigrants a year.  That is almost 2 million that we don't have a plan to house, education, and assimilate.  We can tell there is pain by listening to the Mayors and Citizens of major Cities in the Northern part of the nation.

Regarding the building of a wall, this proposed bill would put that building off until 2028.  Why?  We need a wall now, not in four years.

President Biden and the Democrats on Capitol Hill do not want to fix the illegal immigrant problem.  They want a cloak to hide their goal of free and open immigration for all.  It is a sad commentary that they think this cloak will hide their abandonment of our national borders.

Some, like our Senior Senator from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren, claim opposition to the Bill is just President Trump playing politics.  She must not be reading the polls.  The American Voters are not happy with the nation's immigration policies.  President Trump is just doing a better job of reading the room.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  A Fiscal Year runs from 1 October to 30 September.

Protecting Elections From Bad Data

For John, BLUF:  Voter Roles need to be cleaned up across the fruited plain.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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'Dirty voter rolls’ slammed, 131% of eligible DC voters registered

From The Washington Examiner, by Washington Secrets Columnist Paul Bedard, 8 December 2023, 11:45 AM.

Here is the lede plus one:

Several states and the District of Columbia have been hit by an election watchdog for failing to clean up their voter rolls of the dead and ineligible.

Judicial Watch said it just finished investigating registrations and sent letters to the district, California, and Illinois warning that they are violating the National Voter Registration Act by not cleaning up the rolls.

I actuzally think the head of our Electionx Office here in Lowell, Mr Greg Pappas, is working on clearing up our election rolls.  And it is needed.  Somnetimes a typo entering data gives us a strange entry, like the person on a recent (last eight months) Lowell roll with a birthyear in the 1600s.  Just a typo.

On Tuesday Evening the Lowell City Council voted to appoint Ms Lynda Clark to the Election Commission, replacing Ms Bev Anthes, who moved to Conneticutt four or five months ago.  I was sorry to see her leave our fair city.  Apparently so was the City's IT Department.  Today the Election Commission Web Page still shows Bev on the Election Commission.  Maybe next week.

I think Ms Clark is a solid choice.  Her background is in local government, where she is knowledgeable and tenacious.  Good luck, Lynda.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Mr Trump's Path

For John, BLUF:  Is Mr Donald Trump's presence in the 2024 Presidential race going to distort the outcome?  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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If Donald Trump Were An Ethical, Responsible Public Servant And Wanted To Do What Was In The Best Interests Of His Nation…

From Ethics Alarms, by John Marshall, 28 July 2023.

Here is the lede plus two:

…he would announce that he was withdrawing from the Presidential race immediately, because the prosecutions he faces, just or unjust, will be a destructive distraction from the election as well as an impediment to him serving as President if he were nominated and elected.

And if I were an aardvark, I could save money on groceries by eating ants and termites.

Trump won’t do this, of course (that is, drop out, not eat ants and termites), but it is the only ethical alternative. A lawyer facing a single serious indictment would step away from his or her law firm. An ethical judge would resign. A doctor facing indictments would take a leave of absence. A general facing such legal jeopardy would retire. The United States cannot have a Presidential candidate laboring under the shadow of multiple criminal prosecutions any more than it can afford to have a mentally declining President who serves as a puppet for aspiring totalitarians. Trump continuing his candidacy increases the likelihood of both.

Mr Marshall makes a good point.  But, Mr Trump is unlikely to step away.

As Mr Marshall points out:  "His entire career has been built on a foundation of stubbornness, resilience and a refusal to admit defeat:  quitting his quest for redemption goes against his core."  This persistence is who Mr Donald J Trump is.

All of that said, I do not believe Mr Trump is acting, in his own mind, in an unpatriotic manner.  His line, "They aren't after me.  They are after you, and I am just in the way."  He sees himself doing his duty, and is being opposed by the Deep State.

Regards  —  Cliff

Prosecutorial Misconduct

For John, BLUF:  The Department of Justice is working hard to convict Presidential Candidate Donsald J Trump of somesthing.  Maybe too hard.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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If Alleged DOJ Misconduct Is True, A Judge Could Dismiss The Whole Case Against Trump

Here is the sub-headline:

The conduct claimed is perhaps unprecedented and certainly flagrant.  If proven true, the judge would be well within her rights to consider dismissal.

From The Federalist, by Former Federal Prosecutor Will Scharf, 5 July 2023.

Here is the lede plus two:

Lost in the breathless headlines over the indictment of President Trump for alleged violations of the Espionage Act is a story that deserves much more attention than it has received thus far: the allegation that a senior official at the Department of Justice attempted to shake down Trump’s co-defendant’s lawyer.  It is a scandal in the making that could result in the investigation of senior DOJ officials, which should lead to public congressional hearings, and that might even result in the entire case against Trump being dismissed.

Trump’s co-defendant is Waltine “Walt” Nauta, a Navy valet who served in Trump’s White House and who remained a personal aide to Trump after he left office.  Several weeks ago, Nauta’s lawyer, a distinguished, highly-regarded Washington attorney named Stanley Woodward, leveled accusations against senior members of the Department of Justice, including DOJ Counterintelligence Chief Jay Bratt, who is now a part of Special Counsel Jack Smith’s team of prosecutors.  According to news reports, Woodward claimed in a sealed letter to D.C. District Chief Judge James Boasberg that, in a meeting to discuss Nauta’s case, Bratt indicated that Woodward’s application to be a D.C. Superior Court judge could be impacted if he could not get Nauta to testify against Trump.

If true, and I see no reason why Woodward would make such a threat up — and especially no reason why Woodward would risk his career by making such a representation to a federal judge — Bratt’s alleged misconduct could result in heavy sanctions, and is a potential ground for dismissal of the entire case against Nauta and Trump.  Depending on what exactly was said, Bratt could even face criminal prosecution himself.

Presidential Candidate Donald J Trump has a lot of flaws.  I am reading about some of them in Commander in Cheat, a 2020 book mailed to me by my buddy, Juan.  However, it is up to the Voters to decide if Mr Trump's flaws are greater than those of his opponent.  In 2016 they said no.  In 2020 they said yes.

Comparing candidates is the job of the Voters  It is not the job of the US Department of Justice.  We went through that with Saint James Comey, who took it upon himself to save the nation and the world.  We, the Voters, do not need that kind of help.  If Mr Trump broke some law, fine, go after him.  However, let us have no DOJ intervention to "save" the nation (or President Joe Biden).

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Tucker Carlson and the GOP

For John, BLUF:  What is Tucker Carlson's relationship to the Republican Party and what does it mean?  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Tucker Carlson and the Right

Here is the sub-headline:

The big question for the G.O.P. during the Biden era is whether the legacy of Carlson’s culture wars adds up to a viable platform for a major political party.

From The New Yorker, by Benjamin Wallace-Wells, 30 April 2023.

Here is the lede plus two:

When Tucker Carlson was fired from Fox News last week—so suddenly that he reportedly learned about it only ten minutes before the world did—the most acute notes of regret came from young conservative intellectuals who had seen his nightly hour of programming as an interesting, and perhaps essential, experiment in what right-wing populism could be.  “The Tucker Realignment,” Ross Douthat called that experiment, in the Times, adding that young conservatives “increasingly start out where Carlson ended up—in a posture of reflexive distrust, where if an important American institution takes a position, the place to be is probably on the other side.”  Part of what was appealing about Carlson’s point of view to thinkers on the right was that, in his curiosity about fringe ideas and his occasional highlighting of antiwar (Ukraine) and anti-corporate (Silicon Valley) themes, he was testing out a form of conservative populism that did not hinge on Donald Trump personally.  Michael Brendan Dougherty, of National Review Online, wrote, “Since January 2016, Tucker Carlson has consistently and relentlessly advanced one thesis about American politics:  ‘This isn’t about Donald Trump, but our corrupt liberal elite.’ ”

Ever since Trump lost first the political initiative, in the twists of a COVID crisis that he could never get ahead of, and then the Presidency, to Joe Biden, Carlson’s programs have been where the right’s future was incubated.  They could be racist (stoking fears about the “great replacement”), bizarre (proposing that men tan their testicles as a solution for apparently declining levels of testosterone), and fixated on liberal power in a way that could be hard for an unindoctrinated viewer to follow.  But Carlson was smart enough to identify ideas that could travel.

Both the movement against the teaching of critical race theory and the right-wing interest in Viktor Orbán’s Hungary blossomed on Carlson’s show.  J. D. Vance rode regular appearances on it to a seat in the U.S. Senate.  After Senator Ted Cruz called the January 6th insurrection a “violent terrorist attack,” Carlson forced him to walk back that comment.  Carlson grilled Governor Greg Abbott, of Texas, about why he hadn’t called up more National Guard soldiers to the border, and Abbott did so.  The host also suggested that, if people who live in places like Martha’s Vineyard were so keen on diversity, someone should send undocumented immigrants there.  Not long afterward, Governor Ron DeSantis, of Florida, took him up on it.

This is an interesting article on Talk Show Host Tucker Carlson, recently dethroned by Fox News' Rupert Murdock.  I think the article does a fairly good job of covering what is happening.  That said, there are some sorces who say Mr Carlson wasn't fired, but merely taken off the air.  I do think the author uses short-hand terms for Republican positions, which, in turn, obscure more nuanced Republican positions.  For example, "teaching about race and gender in school", which asks for younger children to not be indoctrinated, rather than bans all such teaching in K-12.

The last sentence of the article is "There is Trumpism with Trump, and there is Trumpism without him."  I agree with the sentence, but I think the author misses the point.  It isn't about Donald J Trump.  It is about millions of voters who think the Progressive elites♠ are out to transform the nation, and in the procress restrict freedoms those voters think are their's.  When President Trump says "In reality they're not after me.  They are after you.  I'm just in the way." he is confirming what they believe.  What the author calls "Trumpism" has been abroad in the land for some time, Ms Lois Lerner notwithstanding.

If the Democrats and the Media manage to drive Mr Trump off the campaign trail, the Republican Voters will go looking for someone who understands their needs.  The question is, is that person on the campaign trail or willing to throw their hat in the ring.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  Many use the term "Liberal Elites", but that slimes the Liberal values that made this nation and other Anglaphone nations great.  Liberal values focused around individual freedom and univeral participation.  Progressiveism has been a tool for restricting freedoms.

The Dissatisfied Sometimes Move

For John, BLUF:  People who are unhappy with theeir local governments are moving to places they find more congeniel.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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The Great Divorce? 2.6 Million Fled Counties That Voted For Biden

From Issues and Insights, by I & I Editorial Board, 19 April 2023.

Here is the lede plus one:

Is the country separating itself into two distinct camps?  One increasingly leftist and the other trying desperately to cling to traditional American values?  Census data seem to show that it very well could be underway. Last week, we commented on recent population data showing that people have been fleeing urban areas, noting that these are mostly Democratically controlled, and we pointed out that people have also been moving from blue states to red.

But we wanted to go deeper and get more precise numbers.  So, we matched Census net migration data from mid-2020 through mid-2022 for all the nation’s 3,000-plus counties (or their equivalents) and compared that with how these counties voted in 2020.  Our working assumption is that the results of the incredibly divisive 2020 election would be a good barometer of the devoutly held political views in those counties.

What we found was striking: There has been a vast migration out of counties that voted for Joe Biden into those counties that voted to reelect Donald Trump.

Census data show a net internal migration of almost 2.6 million (2,584,459 to be exact) from blue counties to red since Biden was elected.  (These figures don’t count immigrants or births or deaths, just those Americans moving from one location to another.)

Here are some of the findings from their look at the data:

• More than 61% of the counties that voted for Biden in 2020 lost population, while 65% of Trump-supporting counties gained population.
• Of the 555 counties Biden won, 335 (or 61%) lost population due to internal migration, our analysis found. Of the 2,589 counties that Trump won, 1,675 (or 65%) gained population.
• Two Biden-voting counties that lost the most from net migration were Los Angeles County, which was down 363,760, and Cook County, Illinois, down 200,718. While many of the blue counties that lost population were urbanized, the exodus was widespread and nationwide, including many far more sparsely populated liberal areas.
• In contrast, the biggest loss in any red county was Jefferson Parish, Louisiana, down just 18,470, followed by Worcester County, Maryland, which is in the southern part of the state, down only 17,545.
• In 13 states that had a net loss of population, red counties nevertheless showed gains. In California, which saw a massive net outflow of 871,127 people in just the past two years, counties that backed Trump had a net gain of 8,412.  New Jersey suffered a loss of 107,749 over the past two years, but counties in the Garden State that voted for Trump gained 22,507.  Michigan lost 43,188 overall, but its red counties had a net gain of 28,091.

Does this mean there will be a shift in voting for President?  That is not obvious.  The migrants may be moving away from "Blue" problems, but they may be bringing "Blue" attitudes with them.  A friend of mine in New Hampshire last week wrote about a quiet little town that attracted people from Masschusetts, who brought with them a desire for curbs and sidewalks and traffic lights and soon taxed the locals out of the town.

On the other hand, the recent wilding in Chicago may be the kind of thing that causes residents to change their minds on law and order and to move to find it, thus changing their political orientation at least somewhat.

However, businesses closing in downtown areas may also cause some to flee from those areas.  For example, Whole Foods announced in early April that it is closig its flagship San Francisco store over employee safety concerns.

The reason this matters is the impact of geography on the elections of Presidents.  Each state automatically gets two Electors, and then more based upon popultion. As population flows out of California or New York, those states may lose Electors, while other states gain Electors.  Mr William A. Galston, writing in The Wall Street Journal, tells us "What Drives Political Polarization".  Per Mr Glston, "A new study suggests that the jobs gaps between rural and urban places is a key."

In a way, internal migration is a way for politics to work itself out.  Small groups, which can not influence their own local governments can move and help influence the overall national approach by uniting with like minded people in their new locations.

November 2032 will tell us if there is an impact on voting patterns.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

State Level Divorce

For John, BLUF:  As geographic areas seem to be more locked into alignment with one political party or another, people are looking for new ways to break the logjam.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Conservatives Want to Secede From Oregon, and Leftists Are ENRAGED

From PJ Media, by Mr Robert Spencer, 5 March 2023, 11:42.

Here is the lede plus one:

The people in eastern Oregon are generally patriotic and sane, and they’re tired of being subjected to the misrule of the far-Left kleptocrats in Salem, who care about them only as a cash cow to fund their socialist pipe dreams.  Accordingly, some have formed the Greater Idaho movement, which actually hopes to detach Oregon’s rural eastern counties from the state and attach them to Idaho.  This movement, as fanciful as it seems, is gathering steam, and that has Democrats enraged.  Whatever else it may be, their rage is revealing.

Idaho Senate Minority Leader Melissa Wintrow, a Democrat, said:  “I’m very pleased this measure has virtually no chance of advancing into reality.  It would be bad for all involved and bad for the country, and I am opposed to it at all levels.”  Bad for the country!  When Leftists who have nothing but contempt for the America-First movement and seem to put America last in all their policy considerations, start declaring that something is “bad for the country,” it must be very good indeed.

While the three Pacific Coast States, Washington, Oregon and California are known for their Progressive views and actions, for being the "Left Coast", it isn't the whole truth.  In fact, the Eastern part of each of the States is actually a much more conservative enclave.

Perhaps the solution to our differences is to allow voters with different political views to band together in their own political entities.  On the other hand, this might benefit the conservatives.  No wonder the left in Oregon are enraged.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Bad Legislation

For John, BLUF:  The Democrats seem to still be concerned by the possibility President Trump might run again in 2024.  They are prepared to go to strange extremes to prevent such a thing.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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H.R.9578 - To provide that Donald J. Trump is ineligible to again hold the office of President of the United States or to hold any office, civil or military, under the United States.

Thiss bill has been introduceed by Repreentative David N. Cicilline, Demoocrat of Rhode Island.  It is based upoon Representative Cicilline's understanding of Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States, which states:

‘‘No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any state, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any state legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any state, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.’’.

I found this little jewel in Conservative Review, in an article titled:  "House Democrats Introduce Legislation That Would Bar Trump From The Presidency". This Bill has picked up 40 co-sponsors, includiing Representative James P. McGovern, Democrat of Masssachusetts Disterict 2.  The good news is that our Representative, Ms Lori Trahan, has not signed onto this legislation.♠

This proposed legislation, based on a Post-Civil War Amendment to the Constitution (14th Amwndweent), seems deficient to me.  It is an attempt to bar Former president Trump from serving as President again.  Or serving in any other office.

The problem is, President Trump has not yet been convicted of any crimes under the 14th Amendment.  Almost two years after the 6 January 2021 riot on Capitol Hill he has not yet even been indicted for any crime.  As an aside, if it was an insurrection on the part of President Trump isn't it the height of incompetence that the legal institutions have not yet done anything to bring him to "justice"?  Are we looking at one more self-indictment on the part of the Biden-Harris Administration?

Then there is the American voter.  While the media is moving to minimize the importance of the Twitter suppression of the original New York Post article on the Hunter Biden Laptop, the American People are giving it credibility..  Breitbart told us on 12 December of this year:  "Poll: 71% Say Accurate Reporting of Hunter’s Laptop Could Have Altered 2020 Election".  That is could vs would, but it is still an indication that the voting public is not to be toyed with for perverse political gain.

I think the US House of Representatives needs to let this piece of legislation die with the end of the 117th Congress.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  Yes, I did take the time to Call Representative Trahan's Lowell Office and say that I thought this was a bad piece of legislation.

2020 Election Campaign Reexmined

For John, BLUF:  It is not possible to go back and say what would have happened if information had come to light before an election, but it should make us careful to ensure such information manipulation is reduced in the future, which falls on the Press and other media.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Kash Patel wants to know about the role of Wray and Barr in the FBI and DOJ liaison with Twitter

From The New Neo, by Herself, 14 December 2022.

Mr Kash Patel asks sojme questions. Here is the lede, a tweet:

The Dirty Truth (Josh)
@AKA_RealDirty

#KashPatel: The only way there would be this level of engagement from the FBI/DOJ with Twitter is if Bill Barr and Christopher Wray personally authorized it. If @elonmusk doesn’t release, everything subpoenas need to go out because nothing is ever deleted at the FBI.

Further down she writes:

I would guess that Wray and Barr would say the briefings were to warn about “Russian disinformation” that might affect the 2020 election. But weekly face-to-face meetings? Seems like a lot more must have discussed than that.

What are the legal ramifications of what happened between Twitter and the government actors, whomever they were? Philip Hamburger writes about it in the WSJ (I can’t read the whole thing because of the paywall, but Instapundit has a hefty excerpt):

Cooperation between government officials and private parties to suppress speech could be considered a criminal conspiracy to violate civil rights. The current administration won’t entertain such a theory, but a future one might.

The fundmentl question for the Voters is if the 2020 Election was perverted by forces inside our Federal Government.

As far back as August of this year The New York Post headlined:  "79% say ‘truthful’ coverage of Hunter Biden’s laptop would have changed 2020 election".

And, one wonders how the political science professors in academia are looking at this?  Are their Progrewsive views at war with any insights that President Trump would have won if a cabal had not suppressed the truth about the Hunter Biden Laptop?  I don't believe the likes of Speaker Nsncy Pelosi give a fig for clean and fair process, but it could come back to bite them if other parties adopt the same approach to elections.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Today's Election

For John, BLUFI thought we were making progress on race relations and integration, but then I read something like this:  .  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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HERSCHEL WALKER IS AN AMERICAN TRAGEDY

Here is the sub-headline:

Black bodies, white agendas

From , by Poet Caroline Randall Williams, DECEMBER 06, 2022.

Here is the lede plus one:

Commodity.  Chattel.  Contraband.  Capital.  What is a Black body in the South?  What is a Black southern man, carted out to work a white-owned field?

It’s impossible today to talk about Black men and white agendas without talking about Herschel Walker, the Republican candidate for Senate in the runoff election in Georgia.  But in order to talk about Walker, I’ve got to start in what may be his actual state of residence, Texas.

Per The Atlantic, the author, Ms Caroline Randall Williams is a poet, the television host of Discovery Plus’s Hungry for Answers, and a writer in residence at Vanderbilt University..

It is interesting to me that in my lifetime the roles of the political parties have reversed.  When I was young the Democrats were, mostly, the party of racism and the Deep South.  If not all the politicians, at least the power in the US Congress.  The Republicans were the party of integration and equal rights.♠

Ms Williams sees Candidate Hershal Walker as a mere schill for cynical Republicans.  Senator Warnock, by implication, is seen as the paragon of virtue.  She is apparently not aware of the small demographic shifts that see Black and Hispanic Voters moving toward the GOP.  This shift is, apparently, driven by the issues facing the nation, such as jobs, crime, immigration, inflatin and education.

This is sad.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠ As is always the case, there were exceptions.  I spent Elementary School in a Sundown Town in South Jersey.  The Mayor conceived of the town as Republican.
♥   This is notwithstanding the actions by Reverend Warnock, such as his actions during his divorce and his actions with regard to his Church's housing project.

The Other Point of View

For John, BLUF:  Political Pundis are jumping the gun with regard to Mr Trump's announcement of a third run.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Mick Mulvaney:  Donald Trump is the only Republican who can lose in 2024

Here is the sub-headline:

Former White House chief of staff said his ex-boss’s planned third run for presidency is bad for Republican party

From The Guardian, by Reporter Martin Pengelly, Wednesday 16 November 2022, 07.28 EST.

Here is the lede plus one:

Donald Trump’s announcement of a third consecutive run for the presidency is bad for the Republican party because he is the only Republican who could lose in 2024, Trump’s own former White House chief of staff said on Tuesday night.

Asked on CNN if he thought Trump’s announcement at Mar-a-Lago was good for the Republican party, Mick Mulvaney said: “No I don’t. I think he’s the only Republican who could lose.”

I think Mr Mulvaney is premature in judging the Former President's odds in a 2024 run.  Yes, Mr Trump is facing some headwinds, but so is President Biden, should he chose to run.  Further, Democrats, as a party, face some issues that might mature in the next two years, including the economy and crime.  And how will Mr Hunter Biden's laptop play out?  Will some admit that 2020 saw a major coverup of serious issues?

I would argue that the half-life of a political opinion in these United States is 90 days.  At that point half the Voters have forgotten the issue or don't care.  Yes, the Media can lengthen that time, but not without effort.  Before we start counting folks out we need to wait for the calendar to show at least the second half of 2023.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

The Youth Voter Was Important Last Week

For John, BLUF:  All of us with an interest in politics need to exmine all the possible reasons for the outcome we had on 8 November.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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There WOULD Have Been a Red Wave, but One Group Saved the Left From Being Completely Obliterated

From PJ Media, by Columniat Robert Spencer, 9 November 2022, 10:58 AM.

Here is the lede plus one:

John Della Volpe, a hard-Left pollster and author of a deathless tome entitled FIGHT:  How Gen Z is Channeling Their Fear & Passion to Save America, is claiming that his favorite age group saved the midterm elections for those who love skyrocketing inflation, open borders, rising crime, international ridicule and brinksmanship, and accelerating authoritarianism.  Della Volpe tweeted, “One thing I know already. If not for voters under 30 … tonight WOULD have been a Red Wave.  CNN National House Exit Poll R+ 13 65+ R+ 11 45-64 D +2 30-44 D +28 18-29 #GenZ did their job.”  He added, “& young #millennials :)”  If Della Volpe’s numbers are correct, and 64% of voters between the ages of 18 and 29 really voted for Democrats, then one thing is clear:  the corruption and politicization of our educational system has worked.

What he is crowing about is the apparent fact that the voting group with the least life experience and the most recent subjection to the Leftist indoctrination that dominates America’s educational system ended up voting as it was brainwashed to do.  Gee, that’s terrific, if you like evidence of the success of the relentless propagandizing of a vulnerable and impressionable captive audience, but neither John Della Volpe nor anyone else should be proud of it.  What it shows is not that the Leftist case is compelling or persuasive; it shows that patriotic Americans have been far too complacent in allowing public schools to become centers of Leftist indoctrination and hatred of our own nation and heritage.

Given that we have 12 years of indoctrinated youth in the youth voting brackets, and more coming, it is incumbent on Republicans to develop and mount a campaign to show these cohorts the proper political path.

Is the Republican Party in Massachusetts capable of doing that?  If not, it will be more years in the wilderness.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  — Cliff

Where Goes Mr Trump?

For John, BLUF:  Has Donald Trump, who many of us love, crested and turned politically toxic?  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Trump's shadow loomed over Pennsylvania's Republican bloodbath

From The Washngton Examine, by National Political Reporter Salena Zito, 9 November 2022, 03:02 PM.

Here is the lede plus six:

The red wave that had been predicted to sweep through the Keystone State never materialized.  Instead, Democrats captured the governor’s office, flipped a Republican-held U.S. Senate seat, kept all nine of their congressional seats, flipped several state House seats, and lost just one state Senate seat.

It was a bloodbath so bad for the GOP that it can only be now seen as a solid blue wave that countered the solid red wave Republicans had in this state just two years earlier in down-ballot elections in 2020, when Republicans swept those elections despite President Joe Biden's top-ticket victory.

Democrat Josh Shapiro did as expected and won the governor’s office handily over Republican gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano.  Democrat John Fetterman won as well, by not as much, but the work he did before his stroke in the past few years in his previous failed run for the Senate, and in his successful run for the lieutenant governor’s office, held.  All of the goodwill he had built up in rural counties gave him just enough votes to overcome Republican nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz's efforts to win the election.

Both men swept away all chances of Republicans gaining any new seats in the House and nearly erased their majority in the state House — one seat hangs in the balance and is too close to call.  It was an utter and complete repudiation of the state's Republican Party.

G. Terry Madonna, a political science professor at Millersville University, attributed Tuesday night's results to three things that had been missed by analysts, pollsters, and reporters, including me.

The first, he said, was "Fetterman holding onto the relationships he developed in the rural counties long before he ran for election this time."  The second was abortion.  The third was that although voters were unhappy with Biden, they were even more unhappy with Trump’s presence during the last week before the election.

Trump's rally in Pennsylvania the Saturday before the election, and his signaled intention to announce another presidential bid later this month, may have done more damage than anyone knew.

If Reporter Zito says the voters were turned off by President Trump, then you can take it to the bank.  I am not sure Mr Trump's prnouncements toward Gov DeSantis and Gov Youngkin these last few days have added to his luster.  In the end it will be on the primary voters, but in the mean time Republican national, state and local leadership should be working to develop an open and inquiring population of Voters.  Voters capable of compromise and asking themselves about the long game.  None of us will get all we want.  All of us should, however, be focused on maintaining our Republican form of ggovernment, with rights for all and a welcoming of all people who have our faith in capitalism and the basic goodness of the Amercan People.

Exit Question:  Does the electin of Lt Gov John Fetterman as Senator signal that the Voters will be happy enough to support Presdent Biden for a second term?

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Hope for Next Week

For John, BLUF:  This 2022 election is about economic visions, the Proogressive vision vs the old fashion Adam Smith approach.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Why suburban women are flocking to the GOP: As simple as A,B,C

From The New Yoork Post, by Law Peofessor Glenn H. Reynolds, 4 November 2022, 6:18 pm.

Here is the lede plus four:

Something’s happening in the suburbs.  On the one hand, polls indicate that white suburban women are shifting — hard — toward the Republican Party.  On the other, lots more parents are homeschooling their kids, post-pandemic.  These phenomena are not unrelated.

Suburban women are shifting Republican — by 27 points, a Wall Street Journal poll found, with 74% saying the country’s headed the wrong direction — because the Democrats have let them down.

When people complain about taxes, the usual response is something along the lines of “what, you don’t want police and schools?”

Of course, as my father-in-law once said, when they raise taxes they tell you it’s for teachers and police, but when they get the money it goes to buy a fancy leather chair for some guy you never heard of in an office downtown.

But if you’re going to justify the whole of government by invoking police and schools, maybe it would be a good idea to . . . actually provide police and schools.  And Democrats across the nation went out of their way not to deliver either.

Proofessor Reynolds poses the impoortant question (IMHO), if Tueday is a Red Wave, will it result in the Democratic Party adjusting its direction, away from the Proogressive path?  If it does, then the 2024 election could well be about competent management of the economy, the border and the Government.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Public School Popularity

For John, BLUF:  "School choice has long been a goal of the conservative movement, long before [Christopher] Rufo was born.  But as Gallup’s polling clearly shows, Rufo did not create the public’s distrust in public schools.  Public schools did that on their own.  And the COVID shutdowns only made that crisis of confidence worse."  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Did conservatives discredit public schools, or did public schools discredit themselves?

From The Washington Examiner, by Reporter Conn Carroll, 15 July 2022, 11:49 AM.

Here is the lede plus five:

Conservative activist Christopher Rufo took a victory lap Thursday after New York Magazine corrected a quote in an article attacking Rufo by Jonathan Chait.

“Winning: New York Magazine’s @jonathanchait fabricated a quotation in an attempt to smear me, but I caught him red-handed and his editors had to retract the false statement and issue a correction,” Rufo tweeted. “Very embarrassing for him.”

Chait admitted the quote in his article had to be changed but claimed that the two quotes “said virtually the same thing.”

The fake quote read, “In order to achieve universal school choice, it’s necessary to create an atmosphere of universal public-school distrust.”

The real quote said, “To get universal school choice, you really need to operate from a premise of universal public school distrust.”

These statements may appear to be close in meaning, but they say two very different things. As one of the top comments in Chait’s timeline notes, “One calls for creating mistrust, the other is assuming everyone already mistrusts them.”

The excerpt is a little long, but it allows us to get at the heart of the issue, Citizen mistrust of public schools.  This is a growing problem and school administrators and teacherrs pushing a "Woke" agendsa are not helping.

The COVID-19 Pandemic did not do public schools any favors, in that parents were exposed to some of the teaching their children were receeiving.  And, the long delay in reopening the schools seemed selfish to many parents.

The push for school vouchers (the money following the child, rather than going to the public school automatically) will create more debate, and perhaps more hardening of the lines.

Here in Lowell we appear to be in a good positionm with a School Administrstion does not appear to be overly woke, while still working to meet the needs of a very diverse student popultion.  In addition, our School Committee seems responsive to the needs of the students and the parents.  May it continue that way.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Bad Turn of Events

For John, BLUF:  This is a bad turn of events.  When the people lose faith, they become less supportive of the incumbent government.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Biden 2020 win ‘tainted,’ 56% say it was a cheater’s paradise

From The Washington Examiner, by Columnists Paul Bedard, 11 October 2021, 01:07 PM.

Here is the lede plus one:

A growing number of likely voters believe that cheating tainted President Joe Biden’s 2020 win over former President Donald Trump, and even more feel that a key Democratic election reform scheme will increase fraud.

In the latest Rasmussen Reports survey, 56% of respondents said, "It’s likely that cheating affected the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, including 41% who say it’s ‘very likely.’”

To get the caveat out of the way, yes, Candidate Joe Biden won the electotal collage and thus is our President.  No doubt.

However, If the People are beginning to lose faith in the 2020 Election, how much faith will they have in other aspects of the Federal Government.  For example, will they trust the Federal Government with regard to COVID-19?  I think this is a problem.  I don't think the bien pensant grasp this problem.  The 2022 Midterm elections will prove if this is true.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff