Prior experience in combat fatigue/shell shock/PTSD is that there is a very distinct elbow is the psych casualty rate that occurs around 250 days in combat. After that, the rate goes way up. It never hits 100% but it accelerates tremendously. And it's a lifetime limit, there is only a modest effect from R & R.♠ A lot of these guys are probably hitting that their first tour. The guys who are on their second, third, even fourth tours, 250 days is a flyspeck in the rear view mirror. Not a good sign.Note that this is days in actually combat, not the time on a tour. If you spend 270 days on the FOB♥ and 90 days out patrolling, in contact with the enemy, you only have 90 days toward the 250 my friend mentions.
When people talk about the Army being stretched, this is one of the kinds of thing that needs to be considered. Another is that there are only so many Army Combat Brigades and we need to give the troops time home with their loved ones and some have to go off to school and some are just getting out—their commitment is up.
The 250 number is just one more item for the Department of Defense to considering in making its recommendations to President Obama re what we do in and about Afghanistan.
I am not saying don't send the 40,000 troops, I am saying we need to think this through. A prayer for President Obama might be in order.
Regards — Cliff
♠ Rest and Recreation, a short time off in the middle of a combat tour.
♥ FOB stands for Forward Operating Base.
1 comment:
As I know and respect the source of the quote as well, I will only observe that while 250 days is a magic number for "in combat" one must also consider that the days "at the rear" our out of the theater no matter how long are NOT a removal from the stress. THAT continues to be a daily reality for those in uniform, particularly those in the combat arms specialities. It's hard to go the first time, and you think about the second time when you get home, then the second time comes, and it becomes in many ways like reliving a bad dream......it's the "not knowing"......
Not every man is an ice man....a natural born warrior. But for those that aren't, perceived expectations drive them to cross their upper comfort zone and into a decided zone of discomfort and disequalibrium......
We can't continue to burn through those who have stepped forward to do the things that must be done. We have to enable them to pass the torch cleanly and move on.
No easy answers. I've always loved the axiom that "People will respond to the common good if they are convinced that it is the common good." I think post modern America is struggling with that today.
Regards
Neal
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