New Week, Same Problems

Sunday, AP Reporters Olga R Rodriguez and Porfirio Ibarra Rameriz filed a story titled "49 Headless Bodies Dumped on North Mexico Highway".  Here it is at The Denver Post.

One commenter on the story asked a series of questions:

• As we wind down Iraq/Afghanistan-- are we prepared to address the next lawless, ungoverned region... to our immediate South?
• Did anyone at the COIN rewrite (FID/irregular warfare/whatever)♠ suggest that the lessons of 8 years in Asia might have immediate value for the Mexican government/police in pursuit of some governance and security for the innocents in the crossfire?
• Am I out of line to think Mexico should be the US's next national security concern after terrorism/counter proliferation???
• I don't think a fence is enough -- are we waiting for 50 bodies in Laredo or El Paso before we get really serious in the western hemisphere? . Serious, like, with DoD/IC/State and full-on interagency intervention?
• I am personally very interested in Mexico but don't have expertise... The plague of narco-terror seems significantly more of a concern than anything that happened in Chiapas '93-'94 with the Zapatistas. I'm not sure the Mexicans can even really say they govern vast swaths of their own territory now.

The response to these points was from a retired Army Colonel and War College Instructor, who is now doing research on activities in Latin America:

Well, welcome to the next insurgency challenge.   You can find lots of information in open-source stuff on the Web, and for a rundown you can pull up the "Crime Wars" study on the CNAS website -- a little dated now (its 18 months old) but still has a good overview on the whole theater.  Hint:  it's not just about the cartels, and it's not just about the border, and it's not just about Mexico.

From what I hear about the COIN conference, it sounds like the Army's not into this (my probably-wrong gut feeling is that if it's not about brigades, it's not going to make the manual. Probably a little harsh).   The Marines, though, are trying to figure out how US military forces play.   It is a very complicated picture, with a lot of US actors already engaged -- border patrol, FBI, CIA, DEA (very important) plus other countries like Colombia.  SF has some people in Mexico and elsewhere, but in Mexico their activities are very circumscribed.

A complicated picture.

Then we have this from noted authority John P. Sullivan:

In addition to "Crime Wars" you might look at my recent working paper "From Drug Wars to Criminal Insurgency:  Mexican Cartels, Criminal Enclaves and Criminal Insurgency in Mexico and Central America.  Implications for Global Security" at the Fondation Maison des sciences de l'homme. 

Also, the archives at SWJ's El Centro page contain several valuable articles on the narco-violence challenge.

This is a problem that is migrating north.  It will make it to the United States, and after that to Massachusetts and eventually to Lowell.  I would think we should act sooner, rather than later.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  This is a reference to a recent effort to rewrite the Army/Marine Corps Counter Insurgency (COIN) Manual.