The Next Radical Health Care Prediction

For John, BLUF:  It is going to cost us, one way or the other.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Ezekiel J. Emanuel, who helped devise the Affordable Care Act, has a vision for how it will eventually work. Democrats hope it will not materialize anytime soon.

That is the lede in an article in The International New York Times. Ezekiel EManuel?  Yes, the Brother of the Mayor of Chicago, Rahm.

Mr. Emanuel [Ezekiel] expects the law to produce an unadvertised but fundamental shift in where most working Americans get their health insurance — specifically, a sharp drop in the number of employers who offer coverage to their workers.  That scale of change would dwarf what took place last fall, when a political firestorm erupted over President Obama’s “if you like your plan you can keep it” pledge.

Ouch!  The "if you like it you can keep it" pledge.  But, back to the point Mr E EManuel is making, health care from employers, in these United States, came about in part because of FDR and WWII, when pay raises couldn't be used to attract new workers, but fringe benefits, like health insurance, could.  It is quite possible that business economics could move employers to change benefits offered to employees, but included in the considerations will be the unemployment rate.  If employers are searching for the good workers and trying to poach them from other employers, health benefits will be a factor.

The thing I find interesting is the belief on the part of Mr Emanuel in the ability of the Federal Government to be efficient and effective.  Talking about the "exchanges" the article says:

With consistent attention, he insists, government can solve the technical problems just as major retailers have.

That may be comparing apples and oranges.

Oh, the book.  Here.

Regards  —  Cliff