Illegals Do Register to Vote

For John, BLUF:  Just not three million.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Trump argument bolstered: Clinton could have received 800,000 votes from noncitizens, study finds

Well, it is The Washington Times and it is Reporter Rowan Scarborough, but it is a university study.  On the other hand, it is about three-quarters shy of the number President Trump was been trumpeting.

Here is the lede plus two:

Hillary Clinton garnered more than 800,000 votes from noncitizens on Nov. 8, an approximation far short of President Trump’s estimate of up to 5 million illegal voters but supportive of his charges of fraud.

Political scientist Jesse Richman of Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia, has worked with colleagues to produce groundbreaking research on noncitizen voting, and this week he posted a blog in response to Mr. Trump’s assertion.

Based on national polling by a consortium of universities, a report by Mr. Richman said 6.4 percent of the estimated 20 million adult noncitizens in the U.S. voted in November.  He extrapolated that that percentage would have added 834,381 net votes for Mrs. Clinton, who received about 2.8 million more votes than Mr. Trump.

Reporter Issue Lapowsky, of Wired, has a 25 January 2017 article headlined "Author of Trump’s Favorite Voter Fraud Study Says Everyone’s Wrong".

Reporter Joanne Kimberlin of The Virginian-Pilot wrote on Wednesday that "Trump’s order for “major investigation” into voter fraud is based on misquoted ODU research"

Misquoted, but real.

The study in question is "Do non-citizens vote in U.S. elections?"  It was published, on line, on 21 September 2014.  The authors were:

1. Jesse T. Richman (Department of Political Science, Old Dominion University, BAL 7000, Norfolk, VA 23529) (jrichman@odu.edu)
2. Gulshan A. Chattha (Old Dominion University) (gchat001@odu.edu)
3. David C. Earnest (George Mason University) (dearnest@odu.edu)

Here is the abstract from the study itself:

In spite of substantial public controversy, very little reliable data exists concerning the frequency with which non-citizen immigrants participate in United States elections.  Although such participation is a violation of election laws in most parts of the United States, enforcement depends principally on disclosure of citizenship status at the time of voter registration.  This study examines participation rates by non-citizens using a na­ tionally representative sample that includes non-citizen immigrants.  We find that some non-citizens participate in U.S. elections, and that this participation has been large enough to change meaningful election outcomes including Electoral College votes, and Congres­ sional elections.  Non-citizen votes likely gave Senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health care reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress.

And here is the pull quote:

Non-citizen votes likely gave Senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health care reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress.

That would be 2009 and 2010.

So, when some Democrat tells you that voter fraud is a fiction, tell them it just ain't so.

Regards  —  Cliff