Iran's Nuclear Plans

For John, BLUF:  I a not convinced that the US rejoining the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) is the solution to the Iran Nuclear problem.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Team Biden blames Iran’s bad behavior on Trump

From The Washington Times, by Lawyers David S. Jonas and Erielle Davidson, 25 January 2022.

Here is the lede plus two:

The White House’s latest plan to improve its messaging on the Iran Nuclear Deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) is to heap the blame for the untenable situation on President Biden’s predecessor.

As the eighth round of indirect negotiations in Vienna nears conclusion, the Biden administration has begun emotionally preparing fellow Democrats for the possibility of either a less-than-stellar arrangement with the regime or the prospect of a renewed pressure campaign against Tehran.  Neither is a desirable outcome — the former ensures dangerous concessions to the mullahs while the latter admits political defeat after months of showboating regarding the diplomatic capabilities of Team Biden.

The good news? There is someone else to blame.

Who would that be?  The same "go to" person the Biden Administration has used for the last twelve and a half months.

According to White House press secretary Jen Psaki, if former President Donald Trump hadn’t “recklessly pulled out of the nuclear deal,” none of the behaviors we’re witnessing from the Iranian regime, including “aggressive actions that they’ve taken through proxy wars around the world,” would be occurring.  This statement is patently false and evinces the depth to which the Biden administration fundamentally either does not understand the threat posed by Iran or, for political reasons, cannot concede that any acts taken by Mr. Biden’s predecessor were prudent or appropriate.

I think the Biden Administration has not properly assessed the situation.  Iran is not a Western European nation.  It has a long, long history, including a hitory of being the big dog in the neighborhood.  This combines with its fierce attachment to its Shia version of Islam.  And the belief in the return of the Twelth Imam.  Add to that the paranoia from the 1953 Anglo-American deposing Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh.  They are not trusting.

Iran wants nuclear weapons, so they can again feel safe and again be the big person on the block.  They know what happened to Libya, and to its leader, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, after that nation gave up its nuclear weapons.♠  And, they are contemplating that, not withstanding the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, which "incuded security assurances against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan," Russia has taken some territory from Ukraine and is currently threatening to take more.

Why would Iran not pursue a nuclear weapons program? : Instead of blaming President Trump for figuring out that Iran intended to press on, Ms Psaki and the rest of the White House Crew need to figure out how to (1) slow the Iranian Nuclear Progrm and (2) how to encourage the democratic forces in Iran.  Then we might be able to put this to bed and turn to North Korea and General Secretary Kim Jung-un.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  Thanks SecState Hillary Clinton.