Where Have All the Peaceniks Gone

For John, BLUF:  Yes, the absence of the Peace Demonstrations are strange.  What have they bewen doing these last six months.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Known Knowns, Known Unknowns, Et Cetera

From Chicago Boyz, by Sgt. Mom, 19 October 2022.

Here is the lede plus foour:

So last week’s post regarding the paucity of lefty anti-war protesters regarding the Ukrainian war is still going strong with comments, reminding me once again of the great sage, Donald Rumsfeld, regarding what we know, and what we know that we don’t know … and what we really don’t know that we don’t know.

What do I know for sure about the war? I know that both sides are … parsimonious with the truth about everything that is happening in the zone of conflict, to the point where a truckload of salt is necessary when reading the headlines, no matter if it’s the established print media, or blogs.  What to believe?  Practically nothing, save that yes, indeed, there is a war and a pretty hot one, too.

I am pretty certain that Ukraine served basically as the Biden family’s ATM.  Corrupt government – yeah, that I do believe.  But as corrupt than Russia itself, Nigeria, Pakistan, Belarus, South Sudan, Somalia, Burundi, Venezuela, and other frequent fliers on ‘most corrupt evah!’ list?

I do believe that Putin’s Russia apparently went into the Ukraine believing that it would be a one-two punch and settled to the advantage of Russia within a fortnight.  That the war has been going on without a resolution since February of this year argues that Putin and his generals did indeed bite off more than they could chew, seriously overestimating their own capabilities and the Ukrainian will to resist.

The modern Ukrainians are descended from the Cossacks, in culture if not in blood, who had for centuries a tradition of making war … enthusiastically.  They also, if I read my history right, still hold a grudge for being subjected to the Holodomor, the mass starvation under Stalin’s harsh rule in the 1930s.  And that has to cast a very long shadow, among survivors of that state-instituted horror and their descendants.

There is no doubt that Russia has gone back on its signature on the Budapest 1994 Memorandum.  There is no doubt that the United States signed on to iplement and ghuarantee the Budapest 1994 JMemorandum.  zthere is also no douobt thsat there is the danger the Russians could use nuclear weapons in this conflict.  That would not be fun.

What is not obvious is how we back out of this situstion, without Ukraine losing its independence and without falling into a World War I type debacle.  I would like to see a little more explortion of the Unknowns.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Putin's War and Nuclear Weapons

For John, BLUF:  There is a conceptual distinction between strategic (intercontinental) nuclear weapons and tactical (or theater) nuclear weapons.  This distinction breaks down when they are being used on your nation.  In the case of Putin's War, for Russia the use may be tactical, but for Ukraine it is "strategic".  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Would Russia Use a Tactical Nuclear Weapon in Ukraine?

From the Modern War Institute, US Military Academy, by Researcher Al Mauroni♠, 16 March 2022.

Here is the lede plus three:

Recent nuclear saber rattling by Russian President Vladimir Putin is forcing the West to confront a question that even many national security professionals have been able to ignore for decades:  Would Putin actually use tactical nuclear weapons?  More specifically, would he order a tactical nuclear strike on Ukrainian military forces out of frustration that his military forces have failed to achieve their objectives?  Assessing that possibility requires a reevaluation of certain assumptions that is long overdue. Russian Nuclear Weapons, in Context

In the current context, Putin could view nuclear weapons use as necessary to ensure Russian national security interests are not derailed by overt Western military support to Ukrainian efforts—which would be in line with stated Russian doctrine.  One course of action could be a so-called demonstration strike with a single low-yield nuclear detonation in Ukraine or over the Black Sea to serve as a dramatic warning that resistance to Russia’s military campaign must be ended, backed by the compellent threat of further tactical nuclear attacks.  There is no question that Putin has already signaled the use of nuclear weapons as an option, and he has stated his (alleged) concern about nuclear weapons being stationed in Ukraine for use against Russia.

Aside from the question of whether a Russian nuclear strike is credible as an aspect of future military operations in Ukraine, there are ample reasons that prudent policy must consider the threat of Russian nuclear weapons use as credible.  First, Russia does not have a “no first use” policy and has doctrine to use nuclear weapons in the event that it was losing a conventional conflict with NATO forces.  A nuclear attack against Ukraine would be intended to allow Russia to conclude a regional conflict on terms acceptable to its leadership.  Second, Russia under Putin has made significant investments in nuclear weapons modernization and has frequently exercised its nuclear forces.  Third, Putin has stated his concern over Ukraine developing a nuclear “dirty bomb” as well as the “aggressive statements” of NATO powers.  These false statements could be intended as establishing a casus belli to use a tactical nuclear weapon.  On the other hand, this might be merely a case of nuclear brinksmanship that will not play out in Russia’s favor.

At the article there are embedded links, if you care.

My view is that if President Putin uses one or two nuclear weapons for demonstration/coercion shots, there is no reason for us to respond in kind.  If he uses them it will be because he is losing.  If we ignore him, and the Ukrainians ignore him and he does not escalate, then the war is over.  I guess he could gas the whole nation, but he may not have enough chemical weapons to kill 40,000,000 people, or even 20,000,000..

Most of us can do little more than pray.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  Al Mauroni is the director of the US Air Force Center for Strategic Deterrence Studies and author of the book, Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the U.S. Government’s Policy.

Iran's Nuclear Plans

For John, BLUF:  I a not convinced that the US rejoining the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) is the solution to the Iran Nuclear problem.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Team Biden blames Iran’s bad behavior on Trump

From The Washington Times, by Lawyers David S. Jonas and Erielle Davidson, 25 January 2022.

Here is the lede plus two:

The White House’s latest plan to improve its messaging on the Iran Nuclear Deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) is to heap the blame for the untenable situation on President Biden’s predecessor.

As the eighth round of indirect negotiations in Vienna nears conclusion, the Biden administration has begun emotionally preparing fellow Democrats for the possibility of either a less-than-stellar arrangement with the regime or the prospect of a renewed pressure campaign against Tehran.  Neither is a desirable outcome — the former ensures dangerous concessions to the mullahs while the latter admits political defeat after months of showboating regarding the diplomatic capabilities of Team Biden.

The good news? There is someone else to blame.

Who would that be?  The same "go to" person the Biden Administration has used for the last twelve and a half months.

According to White House press secretary Jen Psaki, if former President Donald Trump hadn’t “recklessly pulled out of the nuclear deal,” none of the behaviors we’re witnessing from the Iranian regime, including “aggressive actions that they’ve taken through proxy wars around the world,” would be occurring.  This statement is patently false and evinces the depth to which the Biden administration fundamentally either does not understand the threat posed by Iran or, for political reasons, cannot concede that any acts taken by Mr. Biden’s predecessor were prudent or appropriate.

I think the Biden Administration has not properly assessed the situation.  Iran is not a Western European nation.  It has a long, long history, including a hitory of being the big dog in the neighborhood.  This combines with its fierce attachment to its Shia version of Islam.  And the belief in the return of the Twelth Imam.  Add to that the paranoia from the 1953 Anglo-American deposing Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh.  They are not trusting.

Iran wants nuclear weapons, so they can again feel safe and again be the big person on the block.  They know what happened to Libya, and to its leader, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, after that nation gave up its nuclear weapons.♠  And, they are contemplating that, not withstanding the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, which "incuded security assurances against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan," Russia has taken some territory from Ukraine and is currently threatening to take more.

Why would Iran not pursue a nuclear weapons program? : Instead of blaming President Trump for figuring out that Iran intended to press on, Ms Psaki and the rest of the White House Crew need to figure out how to (1) slow the Iranian Nuclear Progrm and (2) how to encourage the democratic forces in Iran.  Then we might be able to put this to bed and turn to North Korea and General Secretary Kim Jung-un.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  Thanks SecState Hillary Clinton.

Hiroshima Revisited

For John, BLUF:  Friday last was the Anniversary of the dropping of a nuclear weapon on the Japanese City of Hiroshima.  Yesterday, Nagasaki.  Many see that action as a terrible blot of our American narrative.  The Writer of the blog mentioned does not think so.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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The Horrific Treatment of Civilians During Japan's "Reign of Terror":  Uncle Sam's 2 Atomic Bombings Prevented Unit 731 From Dropping Bubonic Plague Bombs on America; + 18 Other Reflections on Hiroshima

From ¡No Pasaran!, by the Blogger, 6 August 2021.

Here is the lede plus one:

Among the many things we are not conversant with regarding World War II is the sheer number of Chinese civilians wiped out subsequent to the Doolittle raid on Tokyo. Try to imagine the number of Chinese "collaborators" (from the Japanese point of view) punished (killed) for providing solace to 80-some American stranded airmen whose war exploits they knew nothing about, and said exploit having in any case resulted in less than 90 Japanese deaths.

Do you think it might be about 25 Chinese civilians? 250? Perhaps 2,500? Certainly not 25,000? The answer is perhaps ten times that: close to a quarter of a million! Yes, you read that right: the Japanese army killed an estimated 250,000 Chinese civilians as punishment for aiding the escape of Doolittle’s Raiders from Chinese territory.

How to end a war is a complicated issue, made more complicated by those on the losing side not being willing to give in.  The losing side has to acknowledge it is the losing side.  In the Summer of 1945 it did not look like Japan had realized it was on the losing side of the conflict.  In Germany, with the suicide of Chancellor Hitler, there were those willing to sign a surrender document.  In Japan that was not the case.  However, two nuclear weapons were very sobering for the Emperor.  Even so, there were those who were willing to fight it out to the bitter end.  Fortunately, in the corridors of power they did not prevail.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

The Nuclear Urge

For John, BLUF:  North Korea has been limping along economically for some time as it fights off sanctions for its nuclear development program and tries to make a command economy work.  For example, the Arduous March famine (94-98) killed some 240,000 to 3,500,000 North Koreans out of a total population of some 22 million.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Gaps between market prices in different North Korean regions are growing

Here is the sub-headline:

Chinese food product prices are 45% to 250% higher in Hoeryong than in Pyongsong

From The Daily NK, by Reporter Seulkee Jang, 8 April 2021, 10:00am.

Here is the lede plus four:

Amid North Korea’s attempts to strengthen control over its markets following the closure of the country’s borders last year, the gap between market prices in different regions has been growing more pronounced recently.

Differences in prices between regions in North Korea have steadily decreased as North Korean marketization has created more diverse means of transport.  Much of this can be attributed to the increase in North Korean servi-cha, which are vehicles that operate like a taxi or courier service and can traverse the entire country within a single day.

Despite the increase of oil prices due to international sanctions, there has been few gaps between commodity prices in different areas of the country.  However, as North Korean authorities tightened their control over travel between different areas of the country following the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, markets – which rely on stable logistics networks to thrive – have suffered.

A source recently told Daily NK that 450 grams of Chinese flavor enhancer was selling for KPW 165,000 at a market in Hoeryong, North Hamgyong Province, on Mar. 25.  One kilogram of sugar cost KPW 45,000, while one kilogram of Chinese flour was KPW 28,000.

Before the authorities enforced the border blockade in January of last year, 450 grams of Chinese flavor enhancer sold at the same market for KPW 5,000, while one kilogram of sugar and flour sold for KPW 5,500 and KPW 4,700, respectively.

I don't see any way Noth Korean Dictator Kim Jung-un is giving up his nuclear weapons. None.  I am sure he drew conclusions from the way we treated Libya strongman Muammar Gaddafi after he gave up his own nuclear weapons program.

Neither China nor Russia have interest in helping us deal with North Korea.

Our hope of ending North Korea's nuclear weapons program rests in reunification of the Korean Peninsula following the collapse of the North Korean Government.  That collapse will result when the People have had enough and refuse to do more.  When is the $64 Question.  In the mean time North Korea limps along economically, with tens of thousands on the edge.

Regards  —  Cliff

Calls For Impeachment

For John, BLUF:  This is so unhinged I am quoting Zero Hedge.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Pelosi Fears "Unhinged" Trump Using Nuclear Codes, Eyes Impeachment Vote Next Week

From Zero Hedge, by the mythical Tyler Durden, 8 January 2021.

Here is the lede plus quote:

House Speaker Pelosi just cranked up the crazy to '11' by making the news cycle focus on President Trump's use of nukes before he leaves.  She just issued this statement:

Preventing an Unhinged President From Using the Nuclear Codes:

This morning, I spoke to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley to discuss available precautions for preventing an unstable president from initiating military hostilities or accessing the launch codes and ordering a nuclear strike.

The situation of this unhinged President could not be more dangerous, and we must do everything that we can to protect the American people from his unbalanced assault on our country and our democracy.

She spoke to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; who said what?

If the situation is so dire, why are she and her fellow Congresscritters taking the weekend off?

This seems like Democrats cranking up the volume.  And perhaps voting to ensure Donald J Trump does not come back in 2024.  Is President Trump that much of a threat to the Democrats and their hold on power?  We could get a hint in 2022.  Or maybe before.

And perhaps she wishes to see action taken before we fully understand what happened on Wednesday last.

The alternative explanation is that President Trump so offends her sense of how politics should be played that she viscerally can't let pass any opportunity to take a slap at him.  I wonder if one might say her reactions to Donald J Trump as Pesident are unhinged?

UPDATE:  And then my wife "Airdrops" this item to me:  "Lady Gaga: ‘I Hope We Focus to Impeach Trump’ to ‘Disqualify Him from Future Election’".  These people are terrified of President Trump, and the American People who voted for him.

Regards  —  Cliff

Blaming the Jews

For John, BLUF:  There was some hope that nations might put aside their nuclear ambitions, but I think the US put paid to that idea when it joined Europe in going after Libya.  For a smaller nation the value of nuclear weapons is in deterring others from invading your lands, because a nuclear response is a high price for the invader to pay.  A very high price.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Former top Obama official accused of blaming Jews for Iranian nuclear stockpile

From The Washington Examiner, Ms Emma Colton, 3 March 2020.

Here is the lede plus three:

Former Obama aide Ben Rhodes received blowback on Twitter for suggesting that Iran was able to triple its nuclear stockpile of enriched uranium in four months because of American Jews.

The United Nations announced Tuesday that Iran has nearly tripled the amount of enriched uranium it has since November.

Rhodes was President Barack Obama’s deputy national security adviser and helped craft the Iran nuclear deal with world powers, which placed restrictions on Iran’s nuclear enrichment program at the time.

“I hope everyone at AIPAC can do a victory lap for tripling Iran’s stockpile,” Rhodes said.

The Corbynization of the Democratic Party, and it is sad.

The idea from Mr Ben Rhodes that the Obama Era negotiated agreement to end Iranian nuclearization was going to have a long shelf life is a conceit that demonstrates his amateur status.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Trump's Next Move

For John, BLUF:  The future is not written in stone.  And bullies need to be resisted.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Live updates:  Iran launches missiles at US military facilities in Iraq, Pentagon confirms

Here is the sub-headline:

Officials said there have been no reports of American casualties at this time.

From ABC News, by Reporters Luis Martinez and Elizabeth McLaughlin, 7 January 2020.

Here is the lede plus one:

Iran fired multiple missiles into Iraq on Tuesday evening, targeting U.S. military sites in what appeared to be retaliation for the recent American drone strike that killed one of its top generals.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps swiftly took credit, and one Iranian politician tweeted his nation’s flag -- an apparent swipe at President Donald Trump who tweeted the American flag after the U.S. killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani.

So where does it go from here?  This could be the opening act of a worse future, as suggested by The Daily Beast Yesterday ("The Nuclear Threats From Iran and North Korea, Working Together, Grow by the Day").  The sub-headline is "By blowing away Soleimani, Trump wanted to show he is not a paper tiger. But his “disproportionate” actions may push North Korea and Iran to step up nuclear cooperation."

One problem with this view is that it ignores several decades of history, including Iranian fomenting of conflict over the last two decades, and efforts at nuclear weapons development.  It includes North Korean acts of overseas assassinations and their sinking of a South Korean warship.  Then there is the North Korean shelling of South Korean Islands.

There is an alternative future.  It is possible the leadership of both Iran and North Korea will recognize there are limits to their bullying behavior, coupled with a willingness on the part of the United States to engage in Live and Let Live.  We are hearing those kinds of words from the White House and Tehran.  There is hope.

Regards  —  Cliff

Japan's Reaction to the Attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki

For John, BLUF:  We hear about how the Allied nations, in WWII, cracked German and Japanese communications codes.  Less known is that they were listening on us.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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(Special Post for August 15 - Part 1) Japan's General Staff Office Knew About Hiroshima and Nagasaki Atomic Bombing in Advance and Did Nothing, According to 2011 NHK Documentary

From EXSKF, 17 August 2013 (five years ago).

Here is the lede plus three:

There is an NHK documentary that was aired two years ago on August 6, 2011, on the anniversary day of Hiroshima atomic bombing.  I was unaware of this documentary until I saw a tweet a few days ago that had the link to a blogpost by Councilman Koichi Ohyama of Minamisoma City, Fukushima on September 25, 2012.

Mr. Ohyama's post from one year ago quotes the NHK documentary's announcement from two years ago, which says that the top officers of Japanese imperial army knew in advance the impending US attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and did not do anything.

Atomic bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki have been described (at least in Japan) as "beyond expectation" (just like the Fukushima nuclear accident) and "surprise attacks" with no pre-warning by the US, who used to dump leaflets in Japanese from the planes to warn civilians of impending attacks.

But NHK says the top military officers in imperial Japan knew, and did nothing.  The military essentially was the government during the war.

This is an interesting two part story.  The Second Part can be clicked on at the end of Part One.

It is interesting to see how denial prevented the Japanese leadership from reacting to the attacks by the SILVER PLATE B-29s.

The other interesting thing to learn is that the Japanese were doing a pretty good job of tracking Allied communications and drawing useful conclusions.  This is a caution for the future, or for the present.  One should be careful in believing that one's communications are secure.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Our Scary Past

For John, BLUF:  Heroes on all sides.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Stanislav Petrov, 'The Man Who Saved The World,' Dies At 77

Here is the sub-headline:

September 18, 201712:32 PM ET Greg Myre - 2016 - square GREG MYRE.

[Stanislav] Petrov died on May 19, at age 77, in a suburb outside Moscow, according to news reports Monday.  He had long since retired and was living alone. News of his death apparently went unrecognized at the time.

Here is the lede plus one:

Stanislav Petrov was a lieutenant colonel in the Soviet Union's Air Defense Forces, and his job was to monitor his country's satellite system, which was looking for any possible nuclear weapons launches by the United States.

He was on the overnight shift in the early morning hours of Sept. 26, 1983, when the computers sounded an alarm, indicating that the U.S. had launched five nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles.

"The siren howled, but I just sat there for a few seconds, staring at the big, back-lit, red screen with the word 'launch' on it," Petrov told the BBC in 2013.

It was already a moment of extreme tension in the Cold War. On Sept. 1 of that year, the Soviet Union shot down a Korean Air Lines plane that had drifted into Soviet airspace, killing all 269 people on board, including a U.S. congressman. The episode led the U.S. and the Soviets to exchange warnings and threats.

What is missing in this story is a discussion of NATO Exercise ABLE ARCHER 83, which commence on 7 November 1983.  The Soviets reacted, for the first time, by loading out "tactical" nuclear weapons in forward Warsaw Treaty Organization (WTO) countries.  It was also a moment of nuclear crisis.

Legend has it that Air Force General Leonard H Perroots is the person who told President Reagan that he had to back off because he was scaring the Russians into paranoia.  Wikipedia says that Lenny Perroots "is credited with helping to avert nuclear war during the Able Archer 83 war scare." I am so old I have participated in a couple of ABLE ARCHER Exercises.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Iran and the West

For John, BLUF:  The idea that we are going to have peace in the Holy Land by following the ideas of Senator E Warren is wrong, and deceptive, and pandering to an emerging American partisan faction.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Unremitting Iranian Hostility Means It's Time to Reconsider Regime Change

From PJ Media, by Writer Roger L Simon, 10 July 2019.

Here is the lede plus one:

Despite warnings from practically everyone, five Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gunboats tried to seize a British oil tanker in the Persian Gulf Wednesday. They apparently backed off only when they realized the Brits were serious about defending themselves and had no interest in being held hostage, a standard Iranian tactic. Good for them.

The Iranians have been acting out quite a bit lately, testing the limits of our tolerance for violence and breaking the nuclear strictures (assuming there really were any) of the JCPOA, aka the Iran Deal. That deal was always an extreme head-scratcher, that the agreement prevents entry to Iranian military installations by nuclear inspectors was only the tip of an absurd iceberg. And when the Mossad lifted a ton (!) of nuclear documents from a Tehran warehouse showing that Iran had lied about practically everything, the whole thing seemed ridiculous, even though that should have been obvious from the outset.

I am opposed to war with Iran.  They seem like a natural ally in the region.  But, alas, they see the future emergence of the occulted Twelfth Imam and their important role in saving the world [for Allah]  Thus, the following excerpt is important:

It's worth paying attention when they shout "Death to America! Death to Israel!" as they have since most of their populace was alive.  And it's worth remembering what Elie Wiesel said when asked what was the most important thing he learned from the Holocaust (paraphrasing):  "If someone says he wants to kill you, believe him."

On the other hand, if this isn't the end of the world (Climate Change excepted), then we should consider being a refuge for all Jews (and Christians (and other minority faiths)) in the Middle East.  For example, bring Israel to the United States and settle the people in the Northern Plains States.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Dealing With The nKorean Threat

For John, BLUF:  Mr William Aikin is not a known "Right Wing" crank.  On the other hand, as a "defense analyst" he has been known to question the conventional wisdom.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Say what you will about Trump, but his tactics on North Korea are working

Here is the sub-headline:

US officials warn of a president who is a dangerous wildcard, but Trump should be supported in his denuclearization plan

From The Guardian, Analyst William M Arkin, 25 February 2019.

Here is the lede plus four:

When Donald Trump sits down with Kim Jong-un in Hanoi this week to further discuss eliminating North Korea’s nuclear capability, there are lots of reasons to doubt that the American president can pull it off.

Yet denuclearization is exactly the right goal and the president should be cheered on to succeed.

And yet, ever since the president announced last year that he would pursue “complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of the Korean peninsula”, jeering has been the near universal response.&Nbsp; It’s come from almost every imaginable American quarter: Republican and Democrat, liberal and conservative, expert and amateur.

Former president Barack Obama’s CIA director John Brennan has been the most vociferous, saying that a president “prone to flattery” and oblivious to North Korea’s “agile feint” has taken Kim’s “bait”, canceling exercises and contemplating reductions of forces.  Meanwhile, the news media is filled with leaks and speculation that North Korea clandestinely continues to manufacture nuclear materials and work on long-range missiles.  Ahead of the meeting, US officials promise that troop withdrawals from the Korean peninsula won’t happen, more of a hope as to the actual agenda, given the portrayal of Trump as a dangerous wildcard.

The picture painted is of an unmanageable patriarch who desires to give away the family fortune.  That family fortune of course is in the possession of the national security establishment.  On North Korea, but not only with regard to Korea – look also at Syria and Afghanistan – expert Washington is the master at adhering to their own preferred solutions.  Their passive-aggressive ways – whether applied to Trump on Korea or Obama on issues like Guantánamo and general nuclear disarmament – perpetuate stagnancy, any real change stymied through the imposition of conditions that are never quite achievable.

Yes, North Korea still has nuclear weapons.  But, we are talking and there have been no recent tests.  I judge the new normal to be better than the old normal.  As for Chairman Kim's belief that if he gives up his nuclear weapons he makes his position less secure, we can thank then Secretary of State Clinton.

Regards  —  Cliff

Nuking the Gun Owners

For John, BLUF:  The way I see it, no matter the degree of "gun control" there will always be another incident, and people calling for more "gun control".  There will never be enough gun control for those who seek gun control.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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How Much Blood Would Leftists Be Willing To Shed To Disarm Patriotic Americans?

From Town Hall, by Mr Kurt Schlichter, 6 December 2018.

Here is the key question:

My question for Congressjerk Eric Swalwell is pretty simple: “How many Americans would you murder to achieve your goal of disarming us?”

This came from California Democratic Congressman Swalwell texting that the Federal Government has nuclear weapons with which to respond to any resisting armed citizenry.

Of course Snopes says it was a joke, and thus not real.  Still, not something to joke about.

By the way, Author Kurt Schlichter has a new book out on a Blue/Red Civil War in the United States, Wildfire

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Not Letting Go

For John, BLUF:  Do you think 75 year old John Forbes Kerry still harbors presidential ambitions?  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Pompeo, Kerry clash in remarkable stand-off over Iran

From , by Reporters Nahal Toosi, Matthew Choi and Jesus Rodriguez, 14 September 2018.

Here is the lede plus three:

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his predecessor John Kerry clashed Friday over the latter's private meetings with Iranian officials, a remarkable war of words that had both sides accusing the other of dishonesty.

Pompeo alleged that, by holding "beyond inappropriate" meetings with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, Kerry was undermining U.S. foreign policy in an "unprecedented" manner.  The secretary's comments came after President Donald Trump asserted in a tweet that Kerry’s meetings with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif were “illegal.”

Kerry and his aides dismissed such allegations as utter bunk, pointing out that Kerry had briefed Pompeo and the State Department about his discussions with Zarif.  Kerry twisted the knife even more on Twitter by raising Trump's legal woes, saying the president should "be more worried about Paul Manafort meeting with Robert Mueller than me meeting with Iran's [foreign minister]."

It was an ugly and astonishing exchange for two men who have held the title of chief U.S. diplomat, a role that traditionally is supposed to stay above partisan fray.  But it was just another indication of the unusually bitter relationship between the members of the Barack Obama administration and the Trump team.  Obama aides are particularly upset with Trump for abandoning the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, a signature accomplishment for Kerry that numerous Obama staffers helped craft.

Since the United States does not have a Parliamentary form of Government, we don't have a tradition of a Shadow Cabinet.  However, it appears former Secretary of State John Forbes Kerry has not only set himself up as the alternative SecState, but is actively negotiating on behalf of some future Democratic Party President.

This is more indication that the collective Democratic Party believes that the Trump Administration is illegitimate.  It also suggests they are prepared to push it over the side, lock, stock and barrel, at the first opportunity.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Loss of the USS Indianapolis

For John, BLUF:  The sea can be a tester of men.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Moral Lessons From the Crucible of the Sea

From The New York Times, by Author Doug Stanton 27 July 2018.♠

Here is the lede plus five:

TRAVERSE CITY, Mich. — Each summer, as Lake Michigan finally begins to warm, I think of the men of the World War II cruiser Indianapolis and the worst disaster at sea in United States naval history.  I go down to the lake and I wonder:  How would I have survived what they experienced?

I don’t know the answer, but it’s the asking of the question that helps me recalibrate what could be called my moral compass.

On July 30, 1945, just over a month before the end of the war, the ship was torpedoed by a Japanese submarine.  It sank in 12 minutes.  Of the 1,195 men on board, only 316 were alive when help arrived four and a half days later.  Headlines of the disaster deeply disturbed Americans:  How could this have happened so close to the war’s end?

Today, only 14 of those men are still living, and each July they meet in Indianapolis for a reunion, as they have periodically since 1960, to gather around memories of shipmates who were lost at sea and those survivors who have recently passed away.

By the way, the USS INDIANAPOLIS was the ship that delivered the components for the Little Boy nuclear device, delivered on Hiroshima by the B-29 Enola Gay on 6 August 1945.

Here is the Lesson Learned:

When I ask the survivors about this ordeal’s effect on their lives, they consistently remark that since their rescue, they’ve “never had a bad day.”

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  Mr Stanton wrote the story of the sinking go the By the way, the USS INDIANAPOLIS,In Harm's Way:  The Sinking of the U.S.S. Indianapolis and the Extraordinary Story of Its Survivors.

Going to Singapore

For John, BLUF:  What is the skill set required here?  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Is Trump Unprepared to Negotiate with Kim?

From Pajama Media, by Mr Roger L Simon, 7 June 2018.

Remember, experts built the Titanic, while amateurs built the Ark.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Iran Nuclear Deal Alt View

For John, BLUF:  I tend to trust Former Sec State Condoleezza Rice.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Condoleezza Rice: We'll be 'just fine' if Trump leaves the Iran deal

From The Washington Examiner, by Reporter Pete Kasperowicz 1 May 2018.

Here is the lede plus two:

Leaving the Iran nuclear agreement isn't that big of a deal, former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Tuesday.

"The allies love this deal, and I certainly hope that in their meeting with President Trump that [French President Emmanuel] Macron and [German Chancellor Angela] Merkel talk about ways to improve the deal if we're going to stay in it," Rice said on Fox News.

"But if we get out of this deal, it's going to be just fine," she said.  "The Iranians, I think, will try and stay in because they do want that investment eventually to start flowing."

If she is cool, I am cool.

Regards  —  Cliff

Kim Dominates the Olympics

For John, BLUF:  It seems that North Korea's Kim Jung-un is winning the public relations game at this time.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Frosty reception for South Korea's Winter Olympics detente with North

Here is the sub-headline:

Young people and conservatives in South Korea accuse President Moon Jae-in of sacrificing Olympic ideals for diplomatic expediency

From The Guardian, by Reporter Justin Mccurry, 19 January 2018.

Here is the lede plus one:

South Korea is facing a public backlash over its sports rapprochement with North Korea, with critics accusing the government of turning next month’s Pyeongchang Winter Olympics into the “Pyongyang Olympics”.

After three high-level meetings along their border in little over a week, North and South Korea have proposed forming a joint women’s ice hockey team and allowing their athletes to march together under one flag at next month’s games in South Korea.

Despite the logistical challenges posed by North Korea’s eleventh-hour agreement to compete in Pyeongchang, the International Olympic Committee is expected to give the proposal a sympathetic hearing when it meets officials from both countries in Lausanne on Saturday.

But young people and conservatives in South Korea have accused the country’s president, Moon Jae-in, of sacrificing Olympic ideals for diplomatic expediency.

Moon’s approval rating fell to a four-month low of 67% on Friday, in a reflection of the public’s lukewarm response to his attempts to promote an Olympic détente he hopes will lead to a diplomatic breakthrough over Pyongyang’s ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programmes.

In the US it is all President Trump's fault for being belligerent with regard to Leader Kim Jung-un.  However, in South Korea, it turns out that President Moon is in trouble for being too easy on Leader Kim.  That Leader Kim is one foxy operative.

EXIT QUESTION:  Do you sometimes feel reports confuse sentences and paragraphs?  Back when I was young, before the earth started to cool, I thought paragraphs were a collection of sentences, not single sentences.  Then, later in my life, I was taught that sentences shouldn't be more than twenty words in length.  Oh, it was so long ago.

Regards  —  Cliff

Nuclear Deterrence Morality

For John, BLUF:  Nuclear Deterrence isn't a good thing, but the alternative, coercion by a nation with a handful of nuclear weapons may well be worse.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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NUCLEAR DETERRENCE

This article is from the Boston Dioceses Newspaper, The Pilot, by Mr Russell Shaw, a consultor of the Pontifical Council for Social Communications and has served as communications director for the U.S. Bishops.  The Dateline is 17 January 2018.

Here is the lede plus one:

Nuclear disarmament hasn't happened in these 35 years, and now North Korea has joined the nuclear club, President Trump speaks of using these weapons, and the U.S. and other nuclear powers are busy modernizing their stockpiles.

"We are at the limit of what is licit." In early December Pope Francis offered that assessment of nuclear deterrence during a question and answer session with reporters on the plane back to Rome from Bangladesh.

A month before, the Pope had strongly suggested that the "limit" had already been exceeded. "The threat of their [nuclear weapons'] use, as well as their very possession, is firmly to be condemned," he said in a message to a Vatican-sponsored conference on nuclear disarmament.

This wasn't the first time a pope has challenged the morality of nuclear deterrence. In a message to the United Nations General Assembly in 1982 Pope John Paul II granted only a grudging interim toleration to deterrence ("may still be judged morally acceptable") as a stage on the way to the total elimination of nuclear weapons.

The American bishops relied on that judgment of conditional, temporary toleration of deterrence in their 1983 collective pastoral letter The Challenge of Peace.

But it's now 35 years since St. John Paul delivered his judgment and the bishops repeated it, and Pope Francis has just raised the moral bar a lot higher.

As well he might. Nuclear disarmament hasn't happened in these 35 years, and now North Korea has joined the nuclear club, President Trump speaks of using these weapons, and the U.S. and other nuclear powers are busy modernizing their stockpiles. The countries that now have nuclear arms are the U.S., Russia, China, Great Britain, France, Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea. Several others are in a position to acquire them fairly quickly if they so desire.

Then the article goes on to talking about deterrence in action, and the moral implications.

I have to admit I couldn't resist firing back, in the Comments Section, over may own signature:

War is immoral.  We (the human race) killed millions in WWII not counting the two (three, actually) nuclear devices torched off.  Millions.  And WWI (The Great War), while not as bad, still led to the deaths of millions.  And there was Mao and Pol Pot.

I guess we could do away with War, and Nuclear Weapons, if we all submitted to a one world government.  Unfortunately, such an institution would likely result in some people feeling oppressed and then rising up against such a centralized government.  Especially if that one world government turned out to be oppressive, to disregard things that we think of as human rights.  It makes me think of the need for subsidiarity, which works against a functioning one world government.

There are no easy answers here.  And, yes, I have played with nuclear weapons, as an aircrew member, a squadron level planner and a NATO Air Headquarters level planner.

Regards  —  Cliff

The Threat From North Korea

For John, BLUF:  Wishing won't make North Korea's nuclear capability go away, and neither will blaming President Trump.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Tweet of the Day

This is a Tweet by Ms Jamie Lee Curtis, yesterday, 13 January 2018.

This Hawaii missle scare is on YOU Mr. Trump.  The real FEAR that mothers & fathers & children felt is on YOU.  It is on YOUR ARROGANCE.  HUBRIS.  NARCISSISM.  RAGE.  EGO.  IMMATURITY and your UNSTABLE IDIOCY.  Shame on your hate filled self.  YOU DID THIS!

Well, thanks to Ms Curtis we now know who was responsible for the Hawaii false alarm.

Here is the other bit of news.  The North Korean nuclear capability, such as it is, is not going away.  It is there to provide protection for North Korea from an American response to North Korean incited incidents and acts of aggression.

The other thing to think about is that the North Korean nuclear capability is not sufficient for a disarming first strike against the United States.  Rather, it is a capability held in reserve, to deter the United States.  Striking first means, for North Korea, giving up the deterrence and going straight to the elimination of the Kim Family Criminal Regime in response.

To make the North Korean nuclear capability go away there must be motivation for China to pay attention.  The only thing I can think of that could do the trick would be for South Korea or Japan to start to obtain their own nuclear weapons capability.  Of course, it could turn out that we end up with three nuclear armed nations, not just one.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff