The Dissatisfied Sometimes Move

For John, BLUF:  People who are unhappy with theeir local governments are moving to places they find more congeniel.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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The Great Divorce? 2.6 Million Fled Counties That Voted For Biden

From Issues and Insights, by I & I Editorial Board, 19 April 2023.

Here is the lede plus one:

Is the country separating itself into two distinct camps?  One increasingly leftist and the other trying desperately to cling to traditional American values?  Census data seem to show that it very well could be underway. Last week, we commented on recent population data showing that people have been fleeing urban areas, noting that these are mostly Democratically controlled, and we pointed out that people have also been moving from blue states to red.

But we wanted to go deeper and get more precise numbers.  So, we matched Census net migration data from mid-2020 through mid-2022 for all the nation’s 3,000-plus counties (or their equivalents) and compared that with how these counties voted in 2020.  Our working assumption is that the results of the incredibly divisive 2020 election would be a good barometer of the devoutly held political views in those counties.

What we found was striking: There has been a vast migration out of counties that voted for Joe Biden into those counties that voted to reelect Donald Trump.

Census data show a net internal migration of almost 2.6 million (2,584,459 to be exact) from blue counties to red since Biden was elected.  (These figures don’t count immigrants or births or deaths, just those Americans moving from one location to another.)

Here are some of the findings from their look at the data:

• More than 61% of the counties that voted for Biden in 2020 lost population, while 65% of Trump-supporting counties gained population.
• Of the 555 counties Biden won, 335 (or 61%) lost population due to internal migration, our analysis found. Of the 2,589 counties that Trump won, 1,675 (or 65%) gained population.
• Two Biden-voting counties that lost the most from net migration were Los Angeles County, which was down 363,760, and Cook County, Illinois, down 200,718. While many of the blue counties that lost population were urbanized, the exodus was widespread and nationwide, including many far more sparsely populated liberal areas.
• In contrast, the biggest loss in any red county was Jefferson Parish, Louisiana, down just 18,470, followed by Worcester County, Maryland, which is in the southern part of the state, down only 17,545.
• In 13 states that had a net loss of population, red counties nevertheless showed gains. In California, which saw a massive net outflow of 871,127 people in just the past two years, counties that backed Trump had a net gain of 8,412.  New Jersey suffered a loss of 107,749 over the past two years, but counties in the Garden State that voted for Trump gained 22,507.  Michigan lost 43,188 overall, but its red counties had a net gain of 28,091.

Does this mean there will be a shift in voting for President?  That is not obvious.  The migrants may be moving away from "Blue" problems, but they may be bringing "Blue" attitudes with them.  A friend of mine in New Hampshire last week wrote about a quiet little town that attracted people from Masschusetts, who brought with them a desire for curbs and sidewalks and traffic lights and soon taxed the locals out of the town.

On the other hand, the recent wilding in Chicago may be the kind of thing that causes residents to change their minds on law and order and to move to find it, thus changing their political orientation at least somewhat.

However, businesses closing in downtown areas may also cause some to flee from those areas.  For example, Whole Foods announced in early April that it is closig its flagship San Francisco store over employee safety concerns.

The reason this matters is the impact of geography on the elections of Presidents.  Each state automatically gets two Electors, and then more based upon popultion. As population flows out of California or New York, those states may lose Electors, while other states gain Electors.  Mr William A. Galston, writing in The Wall Street Journal, tells us "What Drives Political Polarization".  Per Mr Glston, "A new study suggests that the jobs gaps between rural and urban places is a key."

In a way, internal migration is a way for politics to work itself out.  Small groups, which can not influence their own local governments can move and help influence the overall national approach by uniting with like minded people in their new locations.

November 2032 will tell us if there is an impact on voting patterns.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff