Who Comes Next

For John, BLUF:  This is a quick look at the line of succession for President of the United States.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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The US Presidential Line of Succesion

The table below list the statatory line of succession should anything happen to the President, or the President and others on the list of succession.  It is like the TV Show Designated Survivor.

SERIAL	Office	Incumbent	Party
1	Vice President	Kamala Harris	Democratic
2	Speaker of the House of Rep	Nancy Pelosi	Democratic
3	President pro tempore of the Senate	Patrick Leahy	Democratic
4	Secretary of State	Antony Blinken	Democratic
5	Secretary of the Treasury	Janet Yellen	Democratic
6	Secretary of Defense	Lloyd Austin	Unknown
7	Attorney General	Merrick Garland	Unknown
8	Secretary of the Interior	Deb Haaland	Democratic
9	Secretary of Agriculture	Tom Vilsack	Democratic
10	Secretary of Commerce	Gina Raimondo	Democratic
11	Secretary of Labor	Marty Walsh	Democratic
12	Secretary of Health and Human Services	Xavier Becerra	Democratic
13	Secretary of Housing and Urban Development	Marcia Fudge	Democratic
14	Secretary of Transportation	Pete Buttigieg	Democratic
--	Secretary of Energy	Jennifer Granholm	Democratic
15	Secretary of Education	Miguel Cardona	Democratic
16	Secretary of Veterans Affairs	Denis McDonough	Democratic
--	Secretary of Homeland Security	Alejandro Mayorkas	Democratic

Two names have been struck out.  Those two individuals are not native born Americans, and thus are not eligible to be President.

In reviewing the list, which of the first seven do you think are ready to be President?  Who would be better at the job than President Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr, and his team? 

We have people expressing concern that President Biden is in ill health.  There are some who talk about use of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment to deal with President Biden.  Moving to sucession without thinking about what comes next is poor planning.♠  For example, Senator Leahy is two years older than President Biden.

It is worth while thinking of the top seven in the list above.  Which of them would be a step up from President Biden and his Team.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  For example, before President Nixon was pressured to resign, back in 1974, the system went against Vice President Spiroo Agnew, forcing his resignation, and replacement by the House Minority Leader, Gerald Ford.

Wrong Vision

For John, BLUF:  Scripture tells us thzat without a vision the People will perish.  This is a couple of weeks old, but it talks to the current situation, and lack of proper vision.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Why Team Biden might be purposefully grinding down the middle class

From The New York Post, by Professor Glenn H. Reynolds, 26 May 2022, 4:50pm.

Here is the lede plus three:

Vladimir Lenin supposedly once said, “The way to crush the bourgeoisie is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation.”

There’s some doubt as to whether this line is genuine; regardless, it seems like a pretty good description of what the Biden administration is doing to America’s middle class.

Inflation is running rampant. The Producer Price Index, the most useful measure of general inflation, is up a whopping 16.3% from April 2021, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

That means that roughly $1 out of every $6 that people earn has been lost to inflation in a single year.  Or to put it another way, 80 minutes’ earnings out of every eight-hour day have been eaten up.

The author then goes on to analyze the current social and economic conditions.  For sure, it aooears the current administration did not do a strategic analysis of where the United States was and the ways it could evolve.  Rather, they put ideology ahead of planning.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Reaching the Voters in 2022

For John, BLUF:  A Reporter asks if Democraft can reach back to the ordinary people, to give them a reason to vote Democrat in November.  She looks at the examples of two Democats with ties to Braddock, PA.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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People, places and politicians: Abstract rhetoric doesn’t respond to voters’ real concerns

From The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, by Reporter Salena Zito, 29 May 2022, 9:04 AM.

Here is the lede plus six:

BRADDOCK, Pa. — For much of the past 300 years, this tiny borough hugging the banks of the Monongahela River has had a front-row seat for key moments in the formation of the country and in the development of its Industrial Age prosperity.

It was here in the first major battle of the French and Indian War that British Gen. Edward Braddock, tasked with capturing French strongholds, marched with an army of British soldiers, Native American allies and Colonial provincial troops, including a young George Washington.

The battle ended in utter failure for the British Army: The region remained in French hands for three more years; Braddock lost his life; and the North American conflict accelerated into a global war. This set in motion both the career of George Washington and a series of events, beginning with British taxes on the colonies to pay for the war, that led to the American Revolution.

One hundred years later, a Scotsman named Andrew Carnegie began building one of the first Bessemer steel mills in the United States. It featured a new and inexpensive process in which molten pig iron was blasted with air to remove its impurities. Carnegie named the mill the Edgar Thomson Steel Works and hired competent managers to run the place.

What had been a mostly agrarian community was transformed into a thriving and diverse town of immigrants, African-Americans and many others. The cramped housing for unskilled workers was built hastily and close to the mill; nicer homes for skilled workers began dotting the slopes. The mill’s success was built on the backs of those workers: Their blood and sweat built the American steel industry.

Joanne Bruno recalls a childhood in the 1950s filled with trips to Braddock Avenue’s vibrant business district filled with dress shops, hotels, grocery stores, barber shops, beauty salons, specialty shops and restaurants. “Even as a young mother in the 60s my friends and I would meet and have coffee,” she said.

Today the mill still stands, and still defines the skyline, but the town is a shadow of what it once was: 18,000 people lived in Braddock when Ms. Bruno was a child; today that number is 1,721.

I think the defeat, yesterday, of San Fransisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin shows that Progressives are on a path, and even if they wanted to step off it, don't know how.

And, those Progrressives don't really have a plan to get to the future they envision, as with Mr Boudin.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

George Soros takes a High Profile Hit

For John, BLUF:  We know how this story ends.  San Fran DA Chesa Boudin lost by double digits in yesterday's recall election.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Will Chesa Boudin's DA Dream Die in Chinatown Today?

From Newsweek, by Reporter Virginis van Zandt, 7 June 2022, 3:49 PM EDT.

Here is the lede plus two:

The fate of San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin will be determined Tuesday by people like Leanna Louie, one of the 60 Asian Americans who were assaulted in San Francisco in 2021 — up 567 percent from nine victims in 2020.

Boudin is a fresh-faced and charismatic public figure, having been in office for just over two years after serving as a public defender.  His self-described progressive approach to prosecution seemed a perfect fit for San Franciscans, and his childhood story drew sympathy.  (Boudin's parents were Weather Underground members who were sentenced to decades in prison for their roles in a 1981 armed robbery and murder when Boudin was an infant.)

Boudin was elected district attorney in 2019 on a "restorative justice" platform, which emphasizes meetings between the victim and the offender to discuss the crime and how it was harmful.  He vowed to prevent crime by addressing the root causes, including poverty, mental health issues and drug abuse.

Mr Boudin lost 40% to 60%.  That seems a fairly strong sttement by the voters.

No, California didn't just turn Republican, but we are seeing a small revolution against the Progressives.  As the late Speaker, Tip O'Neil, used to say, all politics is local.  Mess up with the locals and they will look elsewhere.

I am synpathetic to correcting "root causes, including poverty, mental health issues and drug abuse" but one needs a bridge to get there, a bridge that allows the lives of others to not be harmed.  Mr Boudin did not have that bridge, and perhaps didn't even have an idea that it was needed.  When Government makes changes, there are pertibations that ripple through the system, impacting those not targeted by the changes.  Those are unintended consequestions and they must be allowed for and compensated for.  Mr Boudin failed to do the needed planning.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Ending Homelessness

For John, BLUF:  The Homeless are a problem that will never go away, but it shouldn't be as bad as it is.  And, mental health is probably a large part of the solution.  But, not the whole solution.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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It’s time to finally end homelessness

From The [Lowell] Sun, by Messers Donald Whitehead and Joel Segal, 23 June 2021.

Here is the lede plus one:

On any given night in the United States, upward of a halfmillion people are homeless. And that doesn’t include the millions of others who are living hand- to- mouth in hotels, or doubled up with family members or acquaintances, in often highly stressful temporary housing situations.

A recent study by the National Low Income Housing Coalition estimates a shortage of more than 6.8 million affordable housing units for low- income Americans. “ The crisis created by COVID-19 has made it clearer than ever that stable, affordable housing for all is an imperative for public health, individual well- being, and our country,” said Diane Yentel, the group’s president and CEO.

We have the problem of homelessness, but we also have the problem of not enough housing stock.  Up here in Northern Middlesex County, in Massachusetts, we are expecting an increase of 200,000 people between 2015 and 2040.♠  Who is going to build the needed housing?  I am not sure we have the incentives in place to create that housing.

We need to start looking at this.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  That is not counting our "fair share" of illegal immigrants coming across our Southern Border, which could be a million this year.  Thet are not all stying in Texas, or New Mexico, or Arizona, or California.

Slight of Hand

For John, BLUF:  Sometimes, when talking about the US Defense Budget, advocates will compare it to the rest of the descretionary budget, rather than the whole Federal budget.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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My vote? Cut Pentagon Bloat!

From an EMail from Peace Action, by Ms Lilly Dragnev, Friday, 28 May 2021.

Here is the letter I received:

Dear Cliff,

President Biden’s FY 2022 budget is scheduled to be released today.  In it, he is requesting $753 billion for the Pentagon, a $13 billion increase over Trump’s last budget!

The real work begins in Congress, however.  Soon the Congressional debate will begin about where to actually allocate our taxpayer dollars.  We need to take this moment to collectively call for their use on sorely underfunded human needs over more Pentagon bloat.  Today, I ask you to speak out against the billions of dollars allocated to the Pentagon year after year.  We have an opportunity to reallocate funds from the Pentagon into healthcare, infrastructure, education, racial justice, sustainable energy programs, and so much more.  Help us urge Congress to seize this important opportunity.

The U.S. spends more on its military than the next eleven countries combined.  Such consistently massive military budgets have been funding wars and overseas operations that disproportionately target and harm people of color around the world — all while simultaneously eating up funding for critical programs here at home, which then takes a greater toll on communities of color.

Even as we face a historic pandemic and another economic crisis, President Biden requested that nearly half of the budget be spent on the military-industrial complex.  He requested a whopping $13 billion more for the military than Trump did.  This increase alone is 33% greater than the entire Center for Disease Control budget! Clearly, our priorities, and certainly our true security, are misplaced.

Demand your members of Congress speak out and vote against ever-growing Pentagon spending by adding your name to this petition today!

With talk of life returning to normal, we need to remind those in charge that “normal” didn’t work for many communities — communities marginalized by the status quo of endless revenue streams toward the Pentagon and simultaneous cuts to the critical programs that could offer change.  Let’s make sure that the world we move toward as we rein in this pandemic is not one where few profit at the expense of many, but instead one in which Congress puts taxpayer dollars into the critical programs we need to help everyone thrive.

For peace and true security,

Lilly Dragnev
Peace Action

Budget numbers are tricky.  Here are the numbers from President Biden's Budget release.

ITEMS	MONIES (Billions)
Receipts	3,421
Outlays	6,550
Deficit	3,129
DISCRETIONARY
Defense	754
Non-Defense	913
MANDATORY
Social Security	1,186
Medicare	767
Medicade	518
Other	1,255
Net Interest	305

That is a lot of money.  And some of it may be optomistic.  Remember, we are talking billions of dollars.  Remember the late Senator Everett Dirksen, "A billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you're talking about real money."

This is what I wrote back to Ms Dragnev:

Lilly

Divert it for what? More domestic spying?  I hope not.  More mental health? Only if we find a program that works.  Homelessness?  I think we are avoiding the hard questions.  And, we need to agree on peace.  The idea that we will support Hamas and not Israel leaves open the question of then what?  I would propose Jewish Dakota.  Where else would they go?  Baring the Second Coming, they have to be somewhere, unless folks are advocating they be eliminated as a race.  The Corbynization of the Democratic Party is an embarrassment for those of us who had supported HHH or Shirley Chisholm or Jimmy Carter.

As for the Pentagon, we need to decide what we wish to do.  Is North Korea, nuclear armed, a threat to South Korea or Japan?  Do we care about Taiwan?  Should India be left to deal with Pakistan and China on its own?  What would that look like?  What about Ambazonia, or the larger danger of Islamification of Africa?

.

You can't rationally pick a defense budget until you have decided what it is that you wish to accomplish.  Strategy, per Colonel Arthur F Lykke, Jr, is matching ends ways and means.  I had Colonel Art Lykke as a Professor at Army War College.  I adapted his view to "Strategy is matching objectives, threats and opportunities in a resource constrained environment."  Either way, you need to nail down the objectives, the "ends".

Is there anything out there worth fighting for?

Regards  —  Cliff

Possible Trouble to the South

For John, BLUF:  When I was a Student at Bancroft Junior High School, back in the day, Actor, Editor and Environmentalist Leo Carrillo came to give the keynote speech at our Pan American Day Celebration, in Pan-American Park.  Mr Carrillo said that the United States should stop pouring money down the sewers of Europe and Asia and focus on our Hemisphere.  Obviously, we did not follow that advice.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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As a Latin American populist shores up support, some see challenge for Biden

From The Christian Science Monitor, by Special Correspondent Whitney Eulich, 9 March 2019.

Here is the lede plus three:

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele won a decisive victory in last week’s elections – though his name wasn’t even on the ballot.

Strong support for his New Ideas party in the Feb. 28 midterms gives a seal of approval to his presidency.  It allows the party to confirm Mr. Bukele’s nominees to key positions in the independent attorney general’s office and the Supreme Court.  The party could also push for controversial moves like the removal of presidential term limits.  By potentially gaining a supermajority via an alliance with a smaller party, New Ideas’ consolidation has raised concerns around the erosion of checks on presidential power, which has important implications for the United States, as well.

Under former President Donald Trump, the U.S. used development aid as an incentive for Central American governments to crack down on migration at all costs.  In Mr. Bukele, the U.S. found a receptive partner.  Now, the Biden administration is pivoting, saying it wants to help Central American governments strengthen democracy and fight corruption so as to tackle the root causes of migration.

Mr. Bukele’s newly solidified power is not the first roadblock in the Biden administration’s efforts to pursue a values-based foreign policy:  Myanmar, Saudi Arabia, and others have presented early tests.  Arguably, President Joe Biden already had his work cut out for him in Central America, where some presidents hold onto power in highly contested, irregular votes, or barely go through the motions of fighting corruption.

We keep focusing on Europe and Asia, when important things are happening in our own back garden.  Sadly, I don't see this changing under the current Administration.

Further, there appears to be a massive backlog of refugees building in Columbia, working their way North.  War Correspondent Michael Yon talks about it here.  Mr Yon taught me something new.  I had not realized the Pan-American Highway did not go straight through from top to bottom.  There is the Darién Gap, about a 66 mile break consisting of jungle, passable by all terrain vehicles only.

Prople are coming through the Darién Gap, with the intention of coming to the United States.  Not just Venezualans escaping the Bolivarian Revolution (read Communist), but people from Asia and Africa, also escaping political or economic repression.

I am not sure we have a handle on this.

Regards  —  Cliff

Political What If

For John, BLUF:  What happens if Candidate Joe Biden drops out for one reason or another?  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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If one is doing long term planning it is usually helpful to plan out branches and sequels.

Here are definitions for the terms branches and sequels:

1. Branches provide a range of alternatives often built into the basic plan. Branches add flexibility to plans by anticipating situations that could alter the basic plan.  Such situations could be a result of adversary action, availability of friendly capabilities or resources, or even a change in the weather or season within the OA.
2. Sequels anticipate and plan for subsequent operations based on the possible outcomes of the current operation—victory, defeat, or stalemate.

As we look at the political landscape we see out there the question posed by last week's article from The New York Post.  There is a chance the revealed EMails are authentic.  There is also a small, but greater than zero, chance that the EMails released point to Candidate Biden being unacceptably compromised with regard to one foreign power or another.

This, in turn, leads to the question of if Candidate Biden is sufficiently compromised that the Democratic National Committee (DNC) feels it must replace him on the ticket before the 3 November General Election.

A momentous step, replacing Candidate Biden shouldn't be that hard mechanically, in that all of us who vote are voting for a slate of Electoral College Electors.

But, who would be the replacement?  Would the DNC just fleet up the Vice Preidential Candidate, Sentor Kamala Harris?  Is there an alternative, such as Senator Bernie Sanders, or an outlier, such as Governor Andrew Cuomo?

Then the DNC has to make this all copacetic with the various states.

Then the DNC has to socialize this with the voters.  That will require a major advertising effort. There are less than two weeks left.

Then the People vote.  The question is, what if one voted early for Candidate Biden, but doesn't wish for that vote to transfer to the new DNC Candidate?  Will it be possible for those early voters to call back their vote and substitute a new ballot?  Or, will they be disenfranchised?  A major monkey wrench in the works would be some court ruling that all votes cast before the switch are invalid and need to be done over?  Ouch!

It is all verey unlikely, but good planning requires that it be a branch considered.

As an aside, Congress decides the date of the election.

Regards  —  Cliff

Cooking With Gas

For John, BLUF:  In my mind the expression Cooking with Gas emerges from my childhood, when it signified that one was now on the right path to success.  Apparently no longer.  That said, this might make the people of North Andover happy.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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No more fire in the kitchen:  Cities are banning natural gas in homes to save the planet

From USA Today, by Ma Elizabeth Weise, 10 November 2019.

Here is the lede plus six:

Fix global warming or cook dinner on a gas stove?

That’s the choice for people in 13 cities and one county in California that have enacted new zoning codes encouraging or requiring all-electric new construction.

The codes, most of them passed since June, are meant to keep builders from running natural gas lines to new homes and apartments, with an eye toward creating fewer legacy gas hookups as the nation shifts to carbon-neutral energy sources.

For proponents, it's a change that must be made to fight climate change. For natural gas companies, it's a threat to their existence.  And for some cooks who love to prepare food with flame, it's an unthinkable loss.

Natural gas is a fossil fuel, mostly methane, and produces 33% of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.  Carbon dioxide is the primary greenhouse gas causing climate change.

“There’s no pathway to stabilizing the climate without phasing gas out of our homes and buildings.  This is a must-do for the climate and a livable planet,” said Rachel Golden of the Sierra Club’s building electrification campaign.

These new building codes come as local governments work to speed the transition from natural gas and other fossil fuels and toward the use of electricity from renewables, said Robert Jackson, a professor of energy and the environment at Stanford University in Palo Alto, California.

We have not gotten to the stage where households are being forced to convert away from gas for cooking, but it does mean developers are being incentivized to switch to electric.

I wish the article had talked to the question of alternative electricity generation being brought on line to meet the deficit as gas goes away.  Is anyone doing any forward planning?

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Paying Attention

For John, BLUF:  I think Mr Trump can chew gum and walk at the same time.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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A friend of mine, perhaps echoing criticism he had heard elsewhere, complained that President Trump was going after NFL football players for kneeling during the National Anthem and ignoring Puerto Rico.  I countered with the fact that President Trump had talked to Governor Ricardo Rosselló, and the Governor said he was happy with the effort so far.

From the Associated Press, Friday, the 22nd of September of this year:

Trump speaks with Puerto Rico governor

The White House says President Donald Trump has spoken with the governors of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Trump said earlier Thursday that Puerto Rico was "absolutely obliterated" and the Virgin Islands were "flattened" by recent hurricanes Irma and Maria.

Then there is this item from The Wash Post, Reporter Ed O'Keefe, on 24 September 2017.

Puerto Rico governor:  ‘We still need some more help’ from Washington

Rosselló said he has had “great collaboration and communication” with FEMA and the Department of Health and Human Services, which have been on the island since the morning after the storm assessing damage and setting up shelters.

But after several intense days of preparation, response, rescue and cleanup, Rosselló said, local law enforcement agencies are strained and hampered in their ability to reach far-flung areas that may still need relief.  Even as he asked for more assistance from the Defense Department, he stopped short of requesting that the Trump administration declare martial law.

However,

If the situation isn't addressed in the coming weeks, there could be “massive migration to other states, which will bring a whole host of other problems to Puerto Rico and the states.  It is within everybody’s interest that we handle this situation for what it is — an unprecedented situation, where two hurricanes back-to-back hit Puerto Rico on an island that was under fiscal turmoil.  Those considerations need to be taken into consideration when Congress puts together its aid bill.”

The Governor of Puerto Rico, Mr Rosselló, is worried about Congress as well as the Executive Branch.

Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rosselló is warning that his government needs broader assistance from the federal government, calling on the Pentagon especially to provide more aid for law enforcement and transportation.

Rosselló said he's also worried that Congress will shortchange his island once the initial wave of emergency relief is gone.

“We still need some more help.  This is clearly a critical disaster in Puerto Rico,” he said on a shaky cellphone connection Sunday night from San Juan.  “It can’t be minimized and we can’t start overlooking us now that the storm passed, because the danger lurks.”

Did you pick up on “massive migration to other states"?

What is our Commonwealth doing to prepare for a possible influx of American Citizens from Puerto Rico?  The population of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico is 3.4 million.  If 1% came here it would be 34,000, who would have to be dispersed to various Cities for shelter and support.  I don't think Otis AFB, down on the Cape, is big enough to meet all the needs of these Americans.  Just think of schools alone.

Regards  —  Cliff

A Good Idea Regarding Climate Change

For John, BLUF:  Prudent planning.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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In today's issue of The Boston Globe is this letter from Mr Jack Clarke, Director of Public Policy, Mass Audubon Society, "Massachusetts needs a climate plan".

While I am not sure that the "end is near", the point Mr Clarke makes is excellent.  It is prudent for us to work to determine what is needed in the future and to move to make those projects "Shovel Ready".  Prior planning is prudent.  It allows us to develop insights with regard to the issue of a rising sea level, but also it will reveal insights into other issues.  As the saying goes:

Plans are nothing, planning is everything.

Dwight D. Eisenhower

Even if you think Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Change is rubbish, you might find it prudent to invest in some forward planning.  And, such planning represents a reasonable political compromise with those who believe the sky is fallingfilling with climate warming gases.

Regards  —  Cliff

Urban Planning for Social Shaping

For John, BLUF:  There are no innocent government actions.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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At a blog site named New Geography there is a look at Soviet Urban Development, "Looking Back:  The Ideal Communist City.  The author is Ms Alicia Kurimska.  But, this can't just be the Soviet Union.  Examine this photo from the article.

When I first saw it I thought Hahn Air Base, Germany.  I remember driving through Hahn, visiting friends, when we were stationed in Germany. It was one of a number of US bases, all pretty much alike, built by a French Contractor who had won a NATO bid to provide new bases for American Air Force Wings as far back in Western Germany as possible.  Turns out to be a photo from Tallinn, Estonia, which was absorbed by the Soviet Union in 1939, only to become independent again after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Here is the lede:

Over time, suburbs have had many enemies, but perhaps none were more able to impose their version than the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. In its bid to remake a Russia of backward villages and provincial towns, the Soviets favored big cities – the bigger the better – and policies that were at least vaguely reminiscent of the “pack and stack” policies so popular with developers and planners today.

Urban planning isn't just about creating a livable city, it can include efforts to shape the population.

As is sometimes asserted by urbanists today, the new socialist cities were about more than mere economic growth; they were widely posed as a means to develop a new kind of society, one that could make possible the spread of Homo sovieticus (the Soviet man). As one German historian writes, the socialist city was to be a place “free of historical burdens, where a new human being was to come into existence, the city and the factory were to be a laboratory of a future society, culture, and way of life”.

Or preserve things, as when a neighborhood group fought to limit the penetration of the Lowell Connector into a local neighborhood, and won.  Well, they won, but I am not sure the rest of us did.  Why couldn't the highway designers have elevated the Connector and made more available space underneath the freeway, including space for local children to play?

Hat tip to the Instapundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Job Opportunities

For John, BLUF:  You can grow up and you can become a pilot, but you can't do both.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Foreign Policy Magazine warns us that the US Air Force is facing a potential pilot shortage as the airlines begin hiring again.  If the Air Force, then the other uniformed Services as well.

This is not something new, but one wonders if we couldn't do a better job of planning to smooth this sort of thing out?  Or is the smoothing harder than coping with the problem?

Yes Mr Congressman, we do need an excess of pilots now so we have the right number of experienced pilots in seven years.

Long term planning is hard.

Regards  —  Cliff

Conspiracy Theories

For John, BLUF:  Give people the benefit of the doubt.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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In an EMail this morning I found this comment:

Generally speaking, incompetence, accident, inertia, and dumb chance explain more than conspiracy.

On target.  I realize this is taking an optimistic view of human motivations, but a pessimistic view of human performance, but I think it is that way.

The person who said this was Jill Hazelton, a Professor at Naval War College, so we have to add the standard disclaimer that in making this comment she was not speaking for NWC, the Navy, or our Federal Government.

Regards  —  Cliff

Wyoming's Aircraft Carrier

Professor Ann Althouse picked up on the news story about the Wyoming Lower House considering a bill to study Governmental collapse (think Greece):

State representatives on Friday advanced legislation to launch a study into what Wyoming should do in the event of a complete economic or political collapse in the United States.

House Bill 85 passed on first reading by a voice vote.  It would create a state-run government continuity task force, which would study and prepare Wyoming for potential catastrophes, from disruptions in food and energy supplies to a complete meltdown of the federal government.

The reporter is Mr Jeremy Pelzer of the Star-Tribune capital bureau. The dateline is Friday, February 24, 2012 6:00 pm.

Aside from the Aircraft Carrier distractor

And House members approved an amendment Friday by state Rep. Kermit Brown, R-Laramie, to have the task force also examine conditions under which Wyoming would need to implement its own military draft, raise a standing army, and acquire strike aircraft and an aircraft carrier.

it does not seem unreasonable.  By the way, I spent a lot of time in NATO, where there is a technical distinction between attack aircraft (conventional) and strike aircraft (nuclear), with Dual Capable (DUC) being configured and supplied, and aircrew trained, to do both.

An investment of $16,000 does not seem unreasonable for thinking about the unthinkable.  Or, as one Althouse commenter (Pogo, a regular) said, "Just 5 years ago this would have seemed completely crazy.  Now, it's prudent."

There are those who argue that the world is actually a safer place than it was five years ago.  Osama bin Laden is dead and our military commitment to Europe, in terms of stationed forces, is less than 20% what it was when the Wall came down.  We have experienced the Arab Spring.  The US is out of Iraq and we are drawing down in Afghanistan.  Kim jong il is gone.

On the other hand, such optimists have not looked to our immediate South.  Leo Carrillo was correct, back in the Spring of 1957.  We need to be paying attention to our Southern neighbors.

Regards  —  Cliff

Evaluating a Plan

A long time ago, in a book written in Rhode Island, I found these three rules for evaluating a plan.  They were reprised in an EMail today from someone down in the Northern Virginia area, just north of Mount Vernon.

1. Suitable:  Objectives are clearly stated; concepts are internally sound and simple; both are consistent with other plans.  [Will this plan get done the specific job in front of us?]
2. Feasible:  Resources are sufficient to ensure successful implementation.
3. Acceptable:  Anticipated outcomes are worth costs and risks in terms of money, manpower, materiel, time, and politico-military implications.  [And, can we live with this particular solution to the problem?]

The person sent along a fourth criteria:

1. Flexible: Concepts and resources permit a range of options and facilitate smooth transitions when situations change.  [Since almost always the situation changes as the plan is implemented]

Truth in peace and war, in the most major undertaking and the humblest village.

Regards  —  Cliff