Long Term Thinking

For John, BLUF:  This probably applies to both sides.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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An acquaintance of mine passed along this quote.  She was talking about the recent kerfuffle over the President's Executive Order on immigrants from certain countries.

Let's not make ourselves look stupider for posterity than strictly necessary!

Regards  —  Cliff

Quote of the Day

For John, BLUF:  Source is Anonymous.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Obama lives in DC (Denial City).

Regards  —  Cliff

Confusing the Enemy

For John, BLUF:  There is nothing I can add.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Over at the web magazine, War on the Rocks, the ZenPundit, Mr Mark Safranski gives us "There Are No Tea Leaves To Read About The 'Mosul Plan'".  This is about the fracas over the releasing of information on a plan to attack Daesh in Mosul, Iraq, in the summer.  Early in the piece the late Egyptian dictator Gamal Abdel Nasser is quoted:

The genius of you Americans is that you make no clear-cut stupid moves, only complicated stupid moves which make us wonder at the possibility that there may be something to them we are missing.

This is probably akin to the W C Fields quote:

If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull.

Regards  —  Cliff

Scott Walker Isn't That Tough

For John, BLUF:  It is amazing what people will write if you pay them for writing.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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From Professor Ann Althouse we have a link a New York Times article by Reporter Nate Cohen, "Scott Walker’s Electoral Record Is Less Impressive Than It Looks".♠  The article then goes on to show how other Republicans did better than other winning Republicans in the same election years.

From the article:

Gov. Scott Walker is the rare conservative favorite who emphasizes electability.  He won three contests in four years in Wisconsin, which hasn’t voted for the Republican candidate in a presidential election since 1984.  He did so without compromising on the Republican Party’s core principles; instead, he prevailed in a high-profile fight with organized labor.

Mr. Walker might well prove to be a stronger general election candidate than Mitt Romney.  That’s not a very high bar.  But his electoral record — three wins in governor’s races in four years in Wisconsin, including a recall election — isn’t as impressive as it looks.

There you have it.  Governor Scott Walker isn't all that impressive.  His wins aren't that strong.  And, of course, he never graduated from college.  And his wife is way older than he is.  And, in a real election, a Presidential election, the younger voters will turn out and swamp those older voters.  So, Democrats, don't let Mr Scott spook you.  He just isn't that good.♥

So, here is how Professor Althouse ends her blog post:

Which brings us back to Cohn.  He observes that all 3 of Walker's victories came in non-presidential years, where Republicans get the advantage of lower turnout from the younger people who tend more toward Democrats.  That is, Wisconsin is and remains a blue state, where Walker should lose, but elections are skewed in the off years.

All I can leave you with is a quip from another Midwest Governor, Adlai Stevenson:

In America any boy may become President, and I suppose it's just one of the risks he takes.

Hat tip to Ann Althouse.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  For readers of The New York Times that would be Mr Scott.
♥  On the other hand, we have no indications that he has been running Wisconsin out of a private EMail server in his basement.

Bureaucracy

For John, BLUF:  And it was ever so.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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In any bureaucracy, the people devoted to the benefit of the bureaucracy itself always get in control and those dedicated to the goals the bureaucracy is supposed to accomplish have less and less influence, and sometimes are eliminated entirely.
Jerry Pournelle

Regards  —  Cliff

Power of the Press

For John, BLUF:  Yes, newspapers are a powerful force.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Somebody I know used the following this morning in an EMail, claiming to have adopted it from a Russian Proverb.

What does a 4-star General and a horsefly have in common?  They both can be crushed by a newspaper.

Regards  —  Cliff

Following the Rules

For John, BLUF:  Speed Limits are special—the bureaucrats fight the good sense of the people.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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On the City Life show this morning was some discussion of "rules" and their place and value.  We are "a nation of laws (a nation of rules), and not of men" (thank you John Adams) and that provides us a framework for our interactions with others.

From Lord Kelvin:

The true measure of a man is what he would do if he knew he would never be caught.

Regards  —  Cliff

Apples and Oranges

For John, BLUF:  If it is a statistic you have to check it from all directions and then just distrust it.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Mark Twain attributes this quote to British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli.

Well, this is embarrassing.  This morning I texted in to City Life that Lowell had a great voter turnout.  I based that assertion on this upper left hand part of a report generated by (I would assume) Commonwealth software for local Election Commissions.

As you can see it talks to:

1. Registered Voters
2. "Cards Cast"
3. Some percentage of something

I took the "percentage" to be the percentage of voters.  What else could it be?  It didn't occur to me that it was the percentage of "Cards Cast" versus the number of Registered Voters.  It turns out that indeed that is what it was.  A perfect score would have been 200%.  The actual percentage of Registered Voters voting was closer to 36.1113%

But, even that might not be the correct answer, in that there was a difference 475 between the return of Card 1 and the return of Card 2.  Thus, for the first card, the percentage turnout was closer to 36.525%.

My bad.

Regards  —  Cliff

This World and the Next

For John, BLUF:  What does God want of us.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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This Sunday's Gospel ends with this quote:

So give to Caesar what is Caesar’s, and give to God what is God’s.

Matthew 22:21b

With some people trying to drive God from the market place it is sometimes hard to recognize what is Ceasar's and what is God's.

Regards  —  Cliff

Government Statistics

For John, BLUF:  Garbage in, garbage out.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Stamp's Statistical Probability

The government [is] extremely fond of amassing great quantities of statistics.  These are raised to the nth degree, the cube roots are extracted, and the results are arranged into elaborate and impressive displays.  What must be kept ever in mind, however, is that in every case, the figures are first put down by a village watchman, and he puts down anything he damn well pleases.

Attributed to Sir Josiah Stamp, 1840-1941

Regards  —  Cliff

Ignoring Reality

For John, BLUF:  Eventually reality wins.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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You can ignore reality, but you can’t ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.

-Ayn Rand

I found this on one of Neal's EMails.

Regards  —  Cliff

Negotiating Partners

For John, BLUF:  Obvious statement, but from a guy living in a rough neighborhood.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Of course I negotiate with my enemies.  I consult with my friends.

Yitzhakh Rabin

Something to keep in mind as we debate the recent efforts to return to US control Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl, until recently a POW of the Taliban.

Regards  —  Cliff

Judging Freedom

For John, BLUF:  A constant effort.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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The most certain test by which we can judge whether a country is really free is the amount of security enjoyed by minorities.

-Lord Acton

Of course Lord Acton was part of a minority not given full citizenship.

Regards  —  Cliff

Dealing With Problem People

For John, BLUF:  Dealing with Problem nations.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Dredged up by someone commenting on a Russian SU-24 FENCER buzzing the USS DONALD COOK, in the Black Sea.♠

Weak people get angry - Strong people forgive - Smart people ignore

I am working on being stronger and smarter.  So should the Obama Administration.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  500 foot passes are not a big deal, especially if offset.

Non-Extension Extension

For John, BLUF:  "Believe none of what you hear and half of what you see”—Ben Franklin.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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When is an extension not an extension?  When you just testified that you were not going to give another extension.

Professor Althouse presents us with a multiple choice test (with all the quotes taken from Charles Krauthammer's effort at answering the question).

Hat tip to the Althouse blog.

Regards  —  Cliff

Keeping Our Eyes Open

For John, BLUF:  Little things neglected tend to grow.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Someone I know sent this along yesterday, talking about some happening overseas:

Former Secretary of State Dean Rusk during the 1960s sagely said,

If you don’t pay attention to the periphery, the periphery changes, and the first thing you know, the periphery is the center.

We need to be paying attention

Regards  —  Cliff

Putdowns

For John, BLUF:  Sad, but relevant.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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A friend of mine out in Texas, describing a former supervisor:

...with an IQ below his body temperature.

Regards  —  Cliff

Statistics Aren't Everything

For John, BLUF:  "Lies, Damn lies, Statistics"—Various.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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With the reappearance of the FiveThirtyEight Blog,♠ giving us data driven news, we have someone offering a small caution.  Over at the website Quartz, we have Ms Allison Schrager, on 19 March, talking about "The problem with data journalism".  Here is the lede:

The recent boom in “data-driven” journalism projects is exciting. It can elevate our knowledge, enliven statistics, and make us all more numerate. But I worry that data give commentary a false sense of authority since data analysis is inherently prone to bias. The author’s priors, what he believes or wants to be true before looking at the data, often taint results that might appear pure and scientific. Even data-backed journalism is opinion journalism. So as we embark on this new wave of journalism, we should be aware of what we are getting and what we should trust.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  The name comes from the number of votes in the Electoral College.

Their First Legislator

For John, BLUF:  A view of Christianity from outside.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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I received this from a friend of mine and thought it insightful—brethren

After observing the warm fellowship of believers in Jesus, this was the reaction of the unbelieving Greek writer Lucian (AD 120–200): 

It is incredible to see the fervor with which the people of that religion help each other in their wants.  They spare nothing.  Their first legislator [Jesus] has put it in their heads that they are brethren.

Well, actually, I think the first Legislator was Moses, but why quibble with an outsider?

To the point, many Christians believe each of us must become a son or daughter of God (it seems), and thus brothers and sisters.  Note that God has no Grandchildren.

Sometimes it is hard to love a brother or sister, but that is what we are called to do.

The how is the tricky part.  Remember, Saul of Tarsus, the first to form a Tea Party, said that those who will not work shall not eat.  He said this in a letter to the Thessalonians.

Regards  —  Cliff

Success As Teacher

For John, BLUF:  Success is not promised, it is earned.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Success is a lousy teacher.  It seduces smart people into thinking they can’t lose.  And it’s an unreliable guide to the future.

— Bill Gates, The Road Ahead

This is pretty much what Mr Nassim Nicholas Taleb said in Fooled by Randomness:  The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets.

Regards  —  Cliff