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Monday, February 22, 2016

Mr Trump Still Has A Ways To Go


For John, BLUF:  Mr Trump is going to have to start breaking 50%.  Nothing to see here; just move along.


From the Brookings Institution and Mr John Hudak we have, from this last Saturday, a report on the South Carolina Republican Parimary.  "The South Carolina primary results don't mean Trump will be the nominee".

Here is the money quote:

Party rules make it hard for Trump to clinch. While some states are winner-take-all in their allocation of delegates. Many are not. Many allocate strictly proportionally or function as a winner-take-all if and only if a candidate receives a supermajority (between 66 percent and 85 percent depending on the state). Trump is "winning" by pulling 30-40 percent of states' votes, making those winner-take-all-thresholds far out of reach. It also makes securing the nomination formally (winning a majority of delegates) or informally (broad support being so obvious that further competition is se
My Trump needs 1237 delegates to win the nomination.  A little over 160 of the 2369 delegates are Uncommitted (three from each state, territory and DC).  In a close race those delegates will count.  This thing is far from sewn up.

Regards  —  Cliff

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