Problems in Iraq

For John, BLUF:  The price of oil is going to go up.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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We have ourselves a bit of a mess in the Middle East.  Syria is in turmoil and now the ISIL♠ has taken several town in Iraq, including Mosul and Tikrit.  There is a report of beheadings in the wake of the ISIL advance.

Here is an overall report from The Economist.

From the web Magazine War on the Rocks we have this insight:

First, ISIS’ expansion and rejection of Al Qaeda’s central leadership represents a new evolution in jihadi extremism.  The near-extinction of Al Qaeda’s core—the organization constructed by Osama bin Laden and now led by Ayman al-Zawahiri—has created space for new and more extreme forms of jihadi militancy. In 1999, Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi challenged Osama bin Laden’s ideological direction because he considered Al Qaeda too accommodating to Shia Muslims.  Fifteen years later, Zarqawi’s ideological and organizational descendants have the power to confront Al Qaeda’s leadership more thoroughly.  At the core of Zarqawi’s ideology were two ideas:  that commanders close to battle had ultimate political authority and that purity in the movement was paramount.  In its interaction with Al Qaeda, ISIS embodies both ideas and, not surprisingly, has quite famously been expelled from Al Qaeda, ostensibly for insubordination, but perhaps also for acting like the sovereign state that is has de facto become.

There is the question of where the ISIL reaches its culminating point.  If it isn't until Baghdad then we will have some serious issues.  What will be the position of the United States if Baghdad is under threat?

For those who wonder who is behind the ISIL, they are on their own.  There appears to be no evidence of state funding.  It seems to be private money, looted stuff from Syria, revenues from kidnappings and perhaps some oil revenues.

There is some irony here.  Many condemned President George W Bush (read all Republicans) for "fighting wars for oil" and then they turn around and fight domestic US drilling and pipelines.  If these folks want to reduce energy consumption, they should just come out and say it.  Why dance around it with this or that effort to curtail the source of energy without up front adjustments in the culture.

I end by hoping for good luck for the Iraqis who seek freedom and fight the tyranny of ISIL.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  Sometimes called the ISIS.  From somewhere I found the following:  The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (sometimes translated "Syria" instead of "Levant") (Arabic: الدولة الاسلامية في العراق والشام‎ ad-Dawlat al-Islāmiyya fī’l-‘Irāq wa’sh-Shām), abbreviated as ISIL or ISIS, is an active militant group in Iraq and Syria.  In its unrecognized self-proclaimed status as an independent state it claims the territory of Iraq and Syria, with implied future claims intended over more of the Levant (e.g. Lebanon).  It was established in the early years of the Iraq War and pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda in 2004.  In February 2014, after an eight-month power struggle, al-Qaeda cut all ties to ISIL.