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Saturday, September 12, 2015

The Other Unemployment Figures

For John, BLUFThe real unemployment situation is a hidden volcano, waiting to erupt.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

An excerpt from the excerpt below:
is there any labor-related chart that matters any more?
That is the question posed and answered by Mr Tyler Durden at the Blog Zero Hedge.  He actually provides three charts is his blog post, "698K Native-Born Americans Lost Their Job In August: Why This Suddenly Is The Most Important Jobs Chart".  This touches on the point being pounded by Presidential Candidate Bernie Sanders.  The U-6 unemployment numbers tell us that there are a lot of US Citizens not working, many not even looking for work because they are discouraged workers.  Now comes the question of if those workers are being pushed aside by immigrants (legal and illegal).

There are the first three paragraphs.  Go to the link for the charts.

After the Fed admitted over a year ago that the US unemployment rate (which in 2012 was supposed to be a rate hike "threshold" once it hit 6.5% and is now at 5.1%) has become irrelevant in a country where a record 94 million people have left the labor force, and with the Fed poised to hike rates even though US hourly wages have not only not increased for the past 7 years, but for the vast majority of the labor force continue to decline, some have asked - is there any labor-related chart that matters any more.

The answer:  a resounding yes, only it is none of the conventional charts that algos and sometimes humans look at.

The one chart that matters more than ever,has little to nothing to do with the Fed's monetary policy, but everything to do with the November 2016 presidential elections in which the topic of immigration, both legal and illegal, is shaping up to be the most rancorous, contentious and divisive.

We need a national discussion about what is really going on with regard to employment and unemployment.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

  Mentioning Senator Sanders raises the question of what he is.  He is likely a progressive, although he bills himself as a Socialist and is a registered Independent.  Yet, he is running for the Democrat Party nomination for President.  Which brings up the Chris Matthews question to the Chair of the Democrat National Committee, Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz, what is the difference between a Socialist and a Democrat.


lance said...

If native born Americans won't do the job, who should do the jobs? Or should we cripple the economy by not having them done? And why have the native born Americans given up? That seems to be the bigger question.

C R Krieger said...

I agree the "why have the native born Americans given up" is the bigger question.  On the other hand, is it one of those questions we dare not ask?

But back to "cripple the economy", might it not be cripple, but reorient the economy.  If we had to pay good wages to almond pickers and vine dressers, thus driving up those prices, it would change the economy, buy reducing wine and almond consumption.  This, in turn, would allow fields to go fallow, as in some sort of Shemitah? Maybe not a major reduction in food consumption, but perhaps a reduction in electronic gadgets purchased.  An interesting problem.

Regards  —  Cliff