For John, BLUF: If Senator Schumer doesn't replace Senator Reid if will be an interesting battle for the post of Democrat Senate Leader. Nothing to see here; just move along.
Writing in the 9 September issue of The New Yorker, Mr Bernard Avishai tells us "How Chuck Schumer Lost on Iran".
We know that Senator Chuck Schumer (D NY) is opposed to the President Obama's agreement with the other Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, Germany and Iran. We know that the agreement made its way through the US Senate, notwithstanding Senator Schumer's opposition.
The thing is, Senator Schumer was thought to be in line to replace Senator Harry Reid as the leader of the Senate Democrats. Now there are those claiming he is unsuitable because of his opposition to the Iran Nuclear Agreement.
My personal view is that:
- Without the agreement Iran would have the ability to press on with a nuclear program, if it wished,
- The economic sanctions regime was not going to last, as the P+1 group (UN Security Council Permanent Members plus Germany) wanted the trade,
- It is not clear that Iran does want nuclear weapons,
- That said, Iran sees itself as a regional power,
- Notwithstanding assurances, detection of a breakout is not guaranteed.
- Nuclear deterrence does work,
- But there are many in Iran believe the "Twelfth Imam" will return, indicating the arrival of the end times.