Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Recent Polling


For John, BLUF"Lies, damned lies, statistics".  Nothing to see here; just move along.



I am not sure the headline from this Washington Post article captures what is going on—"Support for abortion rights hits two-year high after Planned Parenthood shooting".

The wording on the graph is "Respondents who believe abortion should be legal all or most of the time."  That is not a question to pick up the nuances of the issue.  Here are the numbers from this poll:

Jan 2015Dec 2015
Democrats6976
Independents4354
Republicans3540

When I look at this my conclusion is, yes, there was an uptick in support for legal abortion.  However, there is not a wide breadth of support for abortion.  Further, given the number of "Independents" in the US, abortion seems to not be a strong issue, at least not as strong as some Democrats paint it.

Further, other polls suggest that while the voters support the right to abortion, that support is not for all abortions.  The voters do not support an unlimited right to abortion.  I would judge that the voters believe that as the fetus reaches maturity the right of the Mother to kill her child diminishes.  The idea of late term abortions of convenience strikes many as wrong.

While the idea of some compromise seems unlikely, due to a lack of trust on the part of all parties, there does seem to be a position of compromise around the 20 week point (about four months into a pregnancy of 40 weeks).  At that point abortions except for the life of the Mother seems excessive and wrong to most.

Regards  —  Cliff

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