Climate Change in Perspective

For John, BLUF:  The people who are panicking over climate mate change, eg, te end is in ten years, are not doing good analysis.  As California is learning, life is not as modern and acceptable when the electricity goes out.  Are People prepared to go back to how it was in 1800?  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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On climate change, humanity is not ‘evil’

From The Globe and Mail (Canada), by Prof Bjorn Lomborg, 26 September 2019.  (Bjorn Lomborg is president of the Copenhagen Consensus Center and a visiting professor at the Copenhagen Business School.).

Here is the lede plus four:

Speaking at the United Nations, 16-year-old Swedish activist Greta Thunberg said that if humanity really understands the science of climate change and still fails to act, we’re “evil.”  This is because climate change means “people are dying.”  Helpfully, she also told us what we must do to act correctly:  In a bit more than eight years, we will have exhausted our remaining allowance for carbon emissions, so we must shut down everything running on fossil fuels by 2028.

While this claim is not uncommon, it is fundamentally misguided. Yes, global warming is real and human-caused, but her vision of climate change as the end of the world is unsupported.  The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that by the 2070s, the total effects of climate change, including on ecosystems, will be equivalent to a reduction in average income of 0.2 to 2 per cent.  By then, each person on the planet will be 300 to 500 per-cent richer.

We don’t emit CO2 with malign intent.  Indeed, it is a byproduct of giving humanity access to unprecedented amounts of energy.

Just a century ago, life was back-breaking.  Plentiful energy made better lives possible, without having to spend hours collecting firewood, polluting your household with smoke, achieving heat, cold, transportation, light, food and opportunities.  Life expectancy doubled.  Plentiful energy, mostly from fossil fuels, has lifted more than a billion people out of poverty in just the past 25 years.

That is not evil – it is quite the opposite.

Stopping climate change may be important but the shortcut that leaves billions in poverty is not an acceptable solution.  We need more engineering, and more trade offs.

Regards  —  Cliff