For John, BLUF: In the absence of a big war, it is the economy. Using Chico Marx's line in Duck Soup, "Well, who ya gonna believe me or your own eyes?" Nothing to see here; just move along.
From Town Hall, by Mr Stephen Moore, 12 November 2019.
Skipping the lede, here are the next four paragraphs:
Here's the backstory. Several weeks ago, I reported on the very large increase in median household incomes under Donald Trump. Based on Census Bureau monthly data, from January 2017, when President Trump entered office, through August 2019, middle-class household incomes rose from $61,000 to an all-time high of $66,000. These numbers are in 2019 dollars -- that is, they are adjusted for inflation. Trump has repeatedly cited these numbers.Wednesday a week ago I attended a Candidate Amy Klobuchar event in Derry, NH. She had an excellent speech, except when she touched on the US Economy. She characterized it as weak. The fact is that the Middle Class is doing OK in this economy, including Blacks and Hispanics.
The left freaked out for understandable reasons. They are especially agitated because median household incomes have risen by $5,000 under Trump, compared to $1,100 in seven years under President Barack Obama. The data also undermines the case against Trump. Elizabeth Warren likes to say in every speech, "The middle class has been left behind by Trump's policies." That's flat-out wrong.
The self-proclaimed "fact-checkers" on the left went to work to try to discredit the numbers. This includes The Washington Post, PolitiFact and others.
As an aside, we have a big problem in America when the "fact-checkers" are all playing for the liberal team. A case in point is the liberal PolitiFact, which used the screaming headline "Trump's Shaky $5,000 Boast." The Post gave Trump two Pinocchios for claiming these income gains and said "Trump Inflates His Economic Record."
It is my expectation that if people think they are prospering under the Trump Administration, especially compared to the previous ten years, and are told they are not, than they will go with the Incumbent. The economy may not be the winning issue the Democratic Party Candidates think it is.
Regards — Cliff