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Showing posts with label Afghanistan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Afghanistan. Show all posts

Monday, March 20, 2023

The Terror Threat this Year


For John, BLUF:  Intelligence Agencies are now loooking out and seeing terrorists threats to the US and Europe emerging in Afghanistan.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




Here is the sub-headline:

‘They can do an external operation against U.S. or Western interests abroad in under six months with little to no warning,’ says the Army general in charge of regional operations.

From US News and World Report, by Reporter Paul D. Shinkman, 16 March 2023.

Here is the lede plus four:

The Islamic State group branch in Afghanistan will be able to conduct terrorist attacks in Europe and Asia within six months, the top U.S. officer for operations in the region told Congress on Thursday.

“They can do an external operation against U.S. or Western interests abroad in under six months with little to no warning,” Army Gen. Michael Kurilla, the head of U.S. Central Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday.

The general later specified that the group known as ISIS-Khorasan or ISIS-K could potentially conduct attacks in Asia or in Europe. It will have greater difficulty attacking the U.S. homeland directly, he said in response to questions.

U.S. intelligence offered a similar assessment of ISIS-K’s ability to attack the U.S. in October 2021.

The potential threat posed by the group, whose brutal acts became more prolific in the final years of the U.S. involvement in the conflict, has become a renewed matter of attention as lawmakers scrutinize the extent the U.S. can still conduct counter-terror operations in Afghanistan after fully withdrawing from it.

Som 20 years and 2429 US Dead (and 46,319 Afghan civilians dead) we are six months away from a potential terrorist event on our soil.  This does not smack of a successful outcome.  It will be worse if there is a terrorist event in the near future.

A planning question for both the Department of State and the Department of Defense is what should be our reaction to a terrorist event out of Afghanistan?  Included in that should be the White House National Security Advior (Jake Sullivan)  Some prior planning will tend to suppress hairbrain ideas thrown on the table at the last minute.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Monday, September 20, 2021

New COVID Variants


For John, BLUF:  The current Administration seems to be generating distractions from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




Here is the sub-headline:

September 8th, 2021 - BabylonBee.com.

Here is the lede plus one:

Officials at the CDC said today that the surprising virulence and persistence of Afghanistan news may require a whole new COVID variant to distract the country from it.

“We’re concerned that the only way to cure the administration of all this bad publicity may be a prolonged, shrieking freak-out over a new COVID variant,” said Dr. Ed Whittle,  Director of the CDC’s Department for the Cultivation of Existential Dread.  “So, we’re working night and day to come up with something really scary that would make the collapse of Afghanistan seem like a Martha’s Vineyard birthday party.”

It is the Babylon Bee, but that doesn't mean it is that far off.  The great Malcom Muggeridge once noted it is hard for sarcasm to stay ahead of reality.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Sunday, September 5, 2021

Show Tolerance, It is Our Best Side


For John, BLUF:  This is a call for tolerance, but with a certain degree of historic misapprehension.  But, the important point is a call for tolerance.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




From The Boston Globe, by Correspondent Mitchell Zuckoff, 4 September 2021, 4:04 pm.

Here is the lede plus:

The 20th anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor came and went with little fanfare.

. . .

Editorial writers reflected on how much had changed — for the better — since the cataclysmic event that launched the United States into World War II.

“[A]s the first shock waves spread over America, it would have been hard for us to believe in the future that is now the present.  It would have been hard for us to believe that those who were our enemies … are now our friends.  But so it is,” The New York Times editorialized on Dec. 7, 1961.

“The old hates are dead,” it continued.  “We gain little by new hates.  On this day of memories there is no value in resentments against whole peoples.”

. . .

Yet something profound had changed over the previous 20 years:  Although Pearl Harbor remained a deep wound in the national psyche, it had been allowed to heal.

What a difference from today, as we approach the 20th anniversary of Sept. 11, 2001 — day one of a war on terror that would not pause, much less end.

I’ve been living with 9/11 since the day itself, when I wrote the lead story about the attacks for this newspaper with help from numerous colleagues.  Later, for a book, I spent years listening to, and sometimes crying with, hundreds of survivors, victims’ family members, heroic responders, military and government officials, witnesses, and others, many still scarred physically and emotionally.

The theme is in the Headline.  Let us refuse to succumb to hate.  I am in full agreement.  Nothing good will come from hating, including hating the Taliban or other groups in the Middle East or South Asia.  Thank you Reporter Zuckoff and Mr Jack Grandcolas, who lost his Wife and unborn child on Flight 93, which crashed in Shanksville, Pennsylvania on 9/11.

There are very real differences between Pearl Harbor and 9/11.  For one thing, we defeated Japan, and Germany and Italy.  Those three nations changed and adopted values such as democracy.  They became our allies.  Nothing like that has happened with the groups of Muslim intent upon spreading their faith across the face of the earth.

When we think about the conflict between aggressive Islam, such as al Qaeda and ISIS, and non-Islamic nations, we should consider that this conflict has been going on for over a thousand years.  That conflict has seen successes for the West, such as 732 (Battle of Tours), 1492 (Expulsion of Moors from Spain) and 1683 (Siege of Vienna).  On the other hand, aggressive Islamic forces, in the early days, swept through Egypt and across the Maghreb.  And, Constantinople fell in 1453, becoming Istanbul.

While some in the West wave the flag of Islamophobia, the fact remains that there is a strain of Islam that would convert the world by the sword.  An example I would think Reporter Zuckoff would be familiar with would be the attack on the offices of the publication Charlie Hebdo.

Does there have to be emnity between the West and Islam?  Absolutely not.  We have good relations with many nations from the Islamic world.  For example, we have good relations with Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.♠  On the other hand, we are fighting Islamic groups in a number of areas, from Africa♥ to Asia.  And, at home.

It is a difficult path we have to tread.  We must resist efforts of Islamists to impose Shira Law on the rest of us.  At the same time, we owe it to our fellow Americans, our fellow Westerners, to be open to them as fellow believers in Democracy, regardless of their religious faith.

As for our current imbroglio, withdrawing American Citizens and our friends and supporters from Afghanistan, we are in a pickle.  The Taliban holds the good cards.  We must work with them.  And I would like to think they see an advantage in working with us.  However, if it goes South,♦ then we must be ready to act decisively to save lives.  But, we should do it without hate for our enemy, nor for Americans who share the same faith as those who are our enemy.  Those Americans share a faith in this nation and in their fellow Americans.  As Boston Globe Columnist Jeff Jacoby put it in today's Opinion Piece, "Since 9/11, Americans have embraced their Muslim neighbors", we have good relations in these United States.  We should keep them.

Another thing we need to do, as Americans, is seek the truth and avoid overheated political rhetoric.  I thought Mr Zuckoff's swipe at those who went to our nation's Capitol on 6 January, wrong as they were in their actions, was such an overheated piece of political rhetoric.  The line "That gulf remains deep even after red hatters achieved what the thwarted hijackers of United Airlines Flight 93 couldn’t on 9/11: visiting death and destruction on the US capital." left a lot to be desired, especially given that the only deliberate death was of an unarmed protestor by an armed Capitol Police Lieutenant.  He is lucky it wasn't in Kansas.  The line probably looked good at the time, but it flows against the theme.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  In the case of Saudi Arabia the leadership is working to liberalize its approach to government, without allowing extremists on either side to take down the Government, resulting in pushback from Progressive groups in the United States.

♥  For example, we support African nations resisting the predations of Boko Haram, including kidnapping young girls and disrupting schools.

♦  For example, if the Taliban, or some group operating in the shelter of their wing, elects to begin mass executions.

Saturday, September 4, 2021

US Kids Trapped in Afghanistan


For John, BLUF:  Immigrant parents in Sacromento, California, thought things were calm enough in Afghanistan to allow them to send their kids back to visit relatives still in Afghanistan.  They were misinformed.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




Here is the sub-headline:

“FOX40 reached out to the Department of Defense, which did not want to do an interview”

From Legal Insurrection, by Mr Mike LaChance, 3 September 2021, 07:00 pm.

Here is the lede:

As many as 29 students from Sacramento, California, remain trapped in Afghanistan.  This has been known since at least the date of the August 31 deadline, but hasn’t gotten much notice in national media for reasons which should be obvious.
For me these children from Sacrmento are, by definition, American school kids.  Their parents may be immigrants, but they are American school kids.  Their parents may exercise poor judgement (or depend on the Government for valid information), but they are still American school kids.

It appers that the US Department of State did not, and still does not, have a handle on Americans in Afghanistan, be they natural born American citizens, naturalized American citizens or Green Card holding people of various ages.  The long term Foreign Service Officers (FS0s) at Foggy Bottom and stations across the globe should be doing a better job.

And the snarky comments at Legal Insurrection don't reflect well on our Citizenry.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Friday, September 3, 2021

Looking For the Adults


For John, BLUF:  The Biden Administration is under the illusuion that the are the adults.  They are misinformed.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




From Samizdata, by Samizdata Illuminatus (Arkham, Massachusetts), 29 August 2021.

Here is the lede plus one:

The American generation which counts those who gave their lives this week among their ranks has grown up with elite, institutional and expert failure not as a shocking aberration but as the default setting.  Time and again, foreign policy elites have issued the wrong diagnoses and the wrong prescriptions. Economic conventional wisdom has been shattered, upended, disproven.  Politics grows more bad-blooded and less serious.  Claims of competence and expertise are regularly proved to be unfounded.  More recently, America’s cultural elite has turned on its own country:  happy to pronounce America irredeemably wicked whilst kowtowing to Chinese censors.

And after all of this, America elected a president who treated his predecessor and the last four years as an unseemly aberration and whose staff boasted that the adults were back in charge.  Thanks to the decisions of those adults, young American soldiers found themselves in a deadly trap at the gates of Kabul airport.

Perfect.

Regards  —  Cliff

Wednesday, September 1, 2021

Presidential Polling Numbers Slipping


For John, BLUF:  The half-life of a memory in US politics is 90 days.  How long will the stink last?  It depends on Afghanistan.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




From Red State, by Reporter Nick Arama, 1 September 2021, 8:30 PM ET.

Here is the lede plus one:

Joe Biden’s ship has finally run aground on the polls.

They began to nosedive at the beginning of the Afghanistan debacle in the middle of last month.  For example, his polling average went under 50 by August 16.

But now, Biden’s numbers have absolutely cratered in all respects.

Both the Real Clear Politics average and the FiveThirtyEight average were underwater.

FiveThiryEight had 47.2 disapproving and 46.7 approving.

The problem isn't just the President.  The polling regarding the Vice President isn't good either:
Just 38% say Harris is qualified to assume the duties of being president.

I thing "run aground" may be an overstatement.  If Jahadi Terrorists hold off, if the Taliban plays nice with the West and holds off cracking down on women, the COVID-19 will soon push to the front and take center stage.  That gives the President another shot.

Or, an incoherent plan with regard to COVID-19, and the economy, could keep the numbers depressed.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

The War Continues


For John, BLUF:  This war has been going on for some 1350 years.  Why would it end now?  Nothing to see here; just move along.




Here is the sub-headline:

The Afghan debacle just marks a new, more murderous phase

From The Washington Free Beacon, by Columnist Matthew Continetti, 20 August 2021, 5:00 am.

Here is the lede plus two:

"I'm now the fourth American president to preside over war in Afghanistan—two Democrats and two Republicans," President Biden said during his speech on August 16.  "I will not pass this responsibly on— responsibility on to a fifth president."  He needn't have corrected himself.  He did indeed irresponsibly bequeath to his successor a terrible situation in central Asia.

The best-case scenario, according to Biden, would look like this:  Afghanistan's reversion to Islamofascism fades from the international headlines.  The Taliban understands that its continued rule depends on its ability to prevent terrorists from launching attacks from its territory.  America goes back to fighting over masks and vaccinations and "building back better," or whatever.

But the best-case scenario is an illusion.  Why?  Because the war isn't over.  Afghanistan is just one front in a global conflict that the United States did not initiate and cannot wish away.  The Cold War did not end when the South Vietnamese government collapsed. Nor will the war on terror or the "Long War" or the "Forever War" cease with Taliban control of Afghanistan.  When participants in the worldwide Salafist-jihadist movement look at the developments of the last week, they don't see reasons to quit their mayhem.  They see the chaos, panic, violence, disorder, and American retreat as a vindication of their ideology and a spur to further action.

The path forward is open to discussion, but the fact of militant Islamic groups working to achieve a worldwide umma should not be ignored.  Not all Muslims, or even most, but some.

This is not like the American Civil War.  When General Robert E Lee surrendered at Appomatox Courthouse on 9 April 1965 he was out of the war and became a loyal US Citizen again.  Yes, there were some holdouts and the KKK, but the war was basically over.  World War II ended with the surrender of Italy, and then Germany and then Japan.  It is not the same with the various Islamic jihadi groups.  Stand by and be alert.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Friday, August 27, 2021

What Should Congresscritters Do?


For John, BLUF:  The Boston Herald seems to have lost its rudder, at least judging by this item from Mr Joe Battenfeld.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




Here is the sub-headline:

If Seth Moulton thought he was unpopular before, he may be in for a shock.

From The Boston Herald, by Newspaperman Joe Battenfeld, 26 August 2021.

Here is the lede plus one:

The Massachusetts congressman, previously best known for his failed presidential campaign and failed coup of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, now has another venture to live down — a secret, unauthorized trip to Afghanistan that has enraged the Biden administration, Pelosi and other Democrats.

Hey, if the shoe fits.

Moulton has a well-earned reputation as grandstanding and egotistical, and hasn’t shied away from the cable TV spotlight, speaking frequently from his position as a Marine and Iraq War veteran on foreign policy and war — even when his views differ from his party.  Contrast Moulton to another war veteran in the Massachusetts delegation, Rep. Jake Auchincloss.

And on it goes.  What a cynical, sarcastic look at part of our State's DC Delegation.  The Congressman did what needed to be done.  And he wasn't alone.  He was partnered up with Rep Peter Meijer, Republican of Michigan.  If the last name, Meijer, doesn't ring a bell, think the DeMoulas family of the Midwest.

While President Biden, aided and abetted by Vice PresidentWatren and Speaker Pelosi, has tried to put a nice gloss on this train wreck of a rescue operation in Afghanistan, Reps Moultons and Meijer acted like Congressmen and went to see what was really going on.

I met Rep Moulton a few years back.  Dr Janet Breslin-Smith and I were trying to round up someone in the House to pick up the mantel of recently retired Rep Ike Skelton who had maintained an overwatch of Professional Military Education.  Congressman Moulton turned us down, but he was professional and understood our issues.♠ 

Thank you Congressmen Moutlin and Meijer.

As for Newspaperman Battenfelt, he leaves a lot to be desired.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠    We also approached Congresswoman Nikki Tsongas, who was gracious, but felt it wasn't in her lane.

Tuesday, August 24, 2021

Afghanistan is Not Becoming Better


For John, BLUF:  This is a very insightful article, a warning that it isn't over just because we are pulling out of Afghanistan.  Their goal is to expand Islam by the sword.  Spain is not safe.  None of us are safe.  Even China should be concerned.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




Here is the sub-headline:

The terrorist group has outlasted the trillion-dollar U.S. investment in Afghanistan since 9/11.

From The New Yorker, by Robin Wright,♠ 23 August 2021.

Here is the lede plus one:

In March, I travelled to Afghanistan and the Middle East with General Kenneth (Frank) McKenzie, Jr., the Alabama-born marine who heads Central Command.  He has been overseeing the frantic evacuation out of Kabul.  During one of several interviews aboard his plane, I asked him, “Do you really think, given the intermarriage, the interweaving of the Taliban and Al Qaeda, that the Taliban is really ever going to be able or willing to restrain Al Qaeda from doing anything against us?”  By then, the Taliban held roughly half of Afghanistan, a country about the size of Texas. McKenzie was chillingly candid.  “I think it will be very hard for the Taliban to act against Al Qaeda, to actually limit their ability to attack outside the country,” he replied.  “It’s possible, but I think it would be difficult.”

For more than a year, both the Trump and Biden Administrations had reams of warnings—from the military and diplomats, congressional reports and a commissioned study group, its own inspector general, and the United Nations—that the collapse of the Afghan government, an ever-growing possibility, would also mean a resurgence of Al Qaeda.  In April, a U.S. intelligence assessment warned Congress that Al Qaeda’s senior leadership “will continue to plot attacks and seek to exploit conflicts in different regions.”  The jihadist group, which carried out the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, was active in fifteen of Afghanistan’s thirty-four provinces, primarily in the eastern and southern regions, the United Nations reported in June.  The Taliban and Al Qaeda remained “closely aligned and show no indication of breaking ties,” it noted, as like-minded militants celebrated developments in Afghanistan as a victory for “global radicalism.” In a haunting final report on the lessons learned from America’s longest war, John Sopko, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, warned that the U.S. decision to pull out the last U.S. troops “left uncertain whether even the modest gains of the last two decades will prove sustainable.”  The decision to pull out was made by President Trump in February last year, with the timetable decided by President Biden in April this year.

She goes on:
As the core of the movement came under U.S. military pressure, he [Al Qaeda’s current leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri] and bin Laden advocated for the creation of Al Qaeda branches across the Islamic world as part of its survival strategy, according to Ali Soufan, a former F.B.I. special agent for counterterrorism and the author of “The Black Banners:  The Inside Story of 9/11 and the War Against al-Qaeda.”  Zawahiri’s more patient strategy has worked, while the more aggressive strategy of the rival Islamic State has flamed out, Soufan told me.  ISIS had many times more members, but Al Qaeda fighters were far more experienced, more strategic, and hardened in battle.  Al Qaeda’s strategy—dubbed the “management of savagery”—has three phases.  The first includes terrorist attacks to weaken the international and regional order.  The second, as government authority erodes or collapses, is to prevent other political forces from filling the vacuum, so as to allow Al Qaeda’s movements to “take pride of position,” Soufan said.  The final stage is to establish a state and stitch the other regions together into a caliphate.
And further:
The common flaw in U.S. policy has been the focus on the fight rather than the economic, political, and social flash points that gave rise to multiple jihadist movements among both Sunni and Shiite Muslims, dating back at least four decades, Soufan said.  “We’ve been spiking the ball at the five-yard line,” like a football player claiming points before actually scoring a touchdown, he told me. “Yes, we defeated the physical manifestation of the caliphate in Iraq and Syria, but we never dealt with the ideology.”  The extremist brands of politicized Islam have usually emerged in countries plagued by poverty and high unemployment, autocratic rule and political alienation, sectarian or social marginalization, and heavy foreign influence.  “All the elements that gave rise to these movements, they’re all worse than they were immediately prior to 9/11,” Edmund Fitton-Brown, a former British diplomat who is now the coördinator of the U.N. Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team that tracks extremist movements, told me.  “I can’t think of a serious underlying factor in the rise of isis or Al Qaeda that has been mitigated, and some are worse.”

Al Qaeda’s resurgence may not have immediate consequences for the U.S. homeland, the experts said.  “Al Qaeda probably does not pose, right now, a direct threat to the West,” Fitton-Brown said.  “But it intends to do so and has a route to do so, which may bear fruit in one or more of these locations,” whether Syria, Yemen, Somalia, the Sahel and West Africa, or elsewhere.  “It would be premature and risky to regard Al Qaeda and isis as defeated, and to relax that counterterrorism pressure.”  Al Qaeda’s broader focus, Soufan said, will be on destabilizing Muslim countries where, as in Afghanistan, governments are frail, have fled, or do not exist.  The goal now is to replicate the victory in Afghanistan elsewhere—phase two.  “Their plan,” he said, “is much more dangerous than a terrorist attack.”

It won't be over when we finally pull out of Afghanistan.  Our opponents have longer term goals and the are bigger than Afghanistan.  They are bigger than Iraq and Syria.  The leaders of the Taliban, al Qaeda and ISIS see themselves restoring the reach if Islam, reaching into Spain and the gates of Vienna and into India (and, I suspect, into China).

We can ignore where we are going, but it will be costly.

Regards  —  Cliff

< ♠  Robin Wright, a contributing writer and columnist, has written for The New Yorker since 1988. She is the author of “Rock the Casbah:  Rage and Rebellion Across the Islamic World.”

Saturday, August 14, 2021

Evacuating the Non-Taliban


For John, BLUF:  I don't think we can evacuate every Afghan who has seen a new way of life and does not wish to again be under the Taliban.  That said, I think we should try.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




From MSM, by Reuters Reporters Idrees Ali, Humeyra Pamuk and Jonathan Landay, 14 August 2021.

Here is the lede plus one:

President Joe Biden's administration has been holding secret talks with more countries than previously known in a desperate attempt to secure deals to temporarily house at-risk Afghans who worked for the U.S. government, four U.S. officials told Reuters.

The previously unreported discussions with such countries as Kosovo and Albania underscore the administration's desire to protect U.S.-affiliated Afghans from Taliban reprisals while safely completing the process of approving their U.S. visas.

Does that mean Afghan Refugees are like Cubans, not worthy of being allowed into the United States?  Or does the Administration wish to land them in Mexico, so they can enter via the established immigration process along the Rio Grande?

Which raises an additional question.  Why is Catholic Charities considered worthy by the Federal Government to deal with these immigrants along our Southern Border when it (Catholic Charities) is offering neither birth control nor abortion services?.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

I saw this Reuters headline this morning:

Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Another Russian Hoax


For John, BLUF:  I wonder about tthe motive for the leak, or if the Woke Reporters just invented it.  Assuming it was a real tip, was the reason to get a date or was it campaign dirty tricks.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




From PJ Media, by Mr Matt Margolils, 30 June 2020.

Here is the lede plus two:

Last week, the New York Times published a report claiming that “a Russian military intelligence unit secretly offered bounties to Taliban-linked militants for killing coalition forces in Afghanistan — including targeting American troops,” and that President Trump has done nothing about it despite being briefed on it in March.

Democrats, true to form, expressed more outrage at Trump for allegedly ignoring the intel than they did at Russia, but that’s par for the course.  Since the report has come out it has become apparent that the New York Times’ claims are likely not true and Democrats jumped the gun by attacking Trump.

For starters, John Ratcliffe, the Director of National Intelligence, quickly debunked the story.  “I have confirmed that neither the President nor the Vice President were ever briefed on any intelligence alleged by the New York Times in its reporting yesterday,” he tweeted.  “The White House statement addressing this issue earlier today, which denied such a briefing occurred, was accurate.  The New York Times reporting, and all other subsequent news reports about such an alleged briefing are inaccurate.”

So where did this go?

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Monday, June 29, 2020

Russian Payback


For John, BLUF:  Wouldn't you expect the Russians to return any mililtary "favors", to undermine our efforts in lands where we previouisly undermined their's?  I would, and I likely wouldn't be dissappointed.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




Here is the sub-headline:

White House denies that President Trump was briefed on the alleged Russian bounty intelligence.

From Fox News, by Reporter Marisa Schultz, 27 June 2020.

Here is the lede plus three:

The bombshell New York Times report says the financial bounties offered to Taliban-linked fighters have been around for several months; Mark Meredith reports.

Lawmakers on both sides the aisle in Washington want answers on new explosive reporting that a Russian spy unit paid the Taliban to attack U.S. troops stationed in Afghanistan.

The New York Times first reported that American intelligence officials have determined a Russian military unit secretly offered bounties to Taliban-linked militants for killing coalition forces, including targeting American troops.  The Wall Street Journal and Washington Post also reported on the Kremlin's effort to orchestrate attacks on Western troops.

Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., called for the Senate to vote on new sanctions against Russia.

Frankly, this looks like a leak designed to force an action by the Administration or to provide campaign fodder for Vice President Joe Biden.  I find neither very admirable.  On the other hand, I can see how the media might enjoy publishing this news.

Publishing this news muddies up the President and doesn't risk actual war with Russia.  In fact, we were doing a version of this back when most reporters were in diapers.  See Charlie Wilson's War for an example.

Then there is this:

"Lack of a response by [Trump] suggests he may be beholden to Putin," Rep. Ted Lieu, D-Calif., tweeted.  "[Trump] is putting US troops’ lives at risk by doing nothing.  Having served on active duty, I find this behavior by our Commander in Chief to be unacceptable."
What exactly does Rep Ted Lieu have in mind?.  I am assuming he doesn't wish to go to nuclear war.  Would he wish us to target Russian soldiers in Syria or the Wagner Group people in Libya?

Frankly, I don't think Rep Ted Lieu has a clue.  He is just prattling on, because Orange Man Bad.  What if, however, the President took some action, some overt action?  Would Rep Ted Lieu then applaud the President?  I am very doubtful.

Regards  —  Cliff

Thursday, April 9, 2020

China's Concerns Regarding Afghanistan


For John, BLUF:  The current Administration is working on pulling US forces out of Afghanistan, where we have sunk billions of dollars, but seem unable to bring democracy and (classic) liberalism.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




From War on the Rocks, by Academic Yun Sun,♠ 8 April 2020.

Here is the lede plus five:

With the U.S. troop withdrawal in sight, Afghanistan's future seems less certain than ever.  As a neighboring state with significant interests at stake, how does China view and prepare for Afghanistan's future?

Since 9/11, the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan has presented a dilemma for China.  On the one hand, Beijing instinctively sees American troops in China's "backyard" as a serious strategic threat.  However, China believes that it has benefited from the security that the United States has provided there, especially in terms of curtailing the growth and spread of anti-China terrorist groups.  The implication of this dilemma is that China wants the United States to withdraw — but only when the withdrawal is responsible and does not leave a chaotic power vacuum that would destabilize the region.  The reality, however, is that the American decision regarding Afghanistan will be made in Washington — not Beijing — and that China must react to whatever moves the United States makes going forward.

The United States and the Taliban signed a peace agreement in Doha on Feb. 29, 2020.  The agreement has been met with official optimism in the United States.  China, however, is less sanguine about the agreement.  Beijing has little confidence in the internal Afghan peace process.  Instead, China expects that the U.S.-brokered agreement will lead to more instability, and that the region eventually will have to seek multilateral alternatives — including U.N. peacekeeping operations — to escape the abyss.

China's Historical Posture Toward Afghanistan

China's fundamental interest in Afghanistan is stability.  Chaos in Afghanistan, from Beijing's perspective, stokes Islamic fundamentalism that threatens domestic security in China, particularly in Xinjiang.  If anything, China is not a revisionist power in Afghanistan.  Given the choice, China would prefer to see an Afghanistan with internal stability and a functional government that is preferably but not necessarily neutral among great powers.  Having witnessed the quagmire in which Britain, the Soviet Union, and the United States were each entrapped, China has always been convinced that Afghanistan is the "graveyard of empires."  Traditionally, Beijing believed that it should avoid serious entanglement in Afghan affairs at all costs.

China's overall view of the U.S. presence in Afghanistan is a mixture of conflicting factors.  On the negative side, China saw the invasion as the United States establishing a foothold in the heart of the Eurasian continent that could then be used to contain China.  Beijing views the ongoing war with the Taliban as the United States "irresponsibly" destabilizing the country and rattling the region.  From the Chinese perspective, 9/11 and the ensuing war in Afghanistan fostered the radicalization of Muslims in the region and directly contributed to the unrest in China's northwest Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region.  But, on the positive side, the Chinese have viewed America's wars since 9/11 as the best thing that has happened to China since the end of the Cold War — a god-sent "window of strategic opportunity" that gave Beijing a decade to build its strength while Washington was distracted, bogged down, and spending trillions of dollars in Afghanistan and Iraq.  While the United States needed China's nominal support for its war on terror, China played up the terrorist threats in Xinjiang, using the global war on terror to justify its policy in the Uighur region.

On the one hand China is concerned about Muslim radicals meddling in China internal affairs, such as the Uighur community.  On the other hand, China is no encourager of freedom and democracy.  We can expect China to try and pull Afghanistan into its Belts and Roads initiative.  But, can they export their social credit system to the very decentralized "nation" of Afghanistan.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  Yun Sun is the director of the China program and co-director of the East Asia program at the Stimson Center.

Sunday, October 6, 2019

Wither the US in Afghanistan?


For John, BLUF:  What are we going to do about our nearly two decade engagement in Afghanistan, an engagement costing us billions of dollars and hundreds of US lives, Military and civilian?  Nothing to see here; just move along.



Here are conflicting views on Afghanistan; should we stay or should we go.

The first submission is from Professor Andrew J Bacevich, writing for The LA Times, 10 September 2019.  Professor Bacevich is a retired US Army Colonel.


Here is the second submission, from two Afghan tour Army Officer Kevin Carroll, a Lawyer and previously senior counselor to Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly.  His opinion piece appeared in The Washington Examiner on 11 September 2019.


Here is the introduction to the Bacevich article:
On the day that Saigon fell, and the conflict that the Vietnamese call the American War ended, I was a captain in the U.S. Army attending a course at Ft. Knox, Ky.  One of my classmates — let’s call him Nguyen — was a captain in the Army of the Republic of Vietnam.  I wanted at least to acknowledge the magnitude of the disaster that had occurred.

“I’m sorry about what happened to your country,” I told him.

In my dim recollection, he didn’t even bother to reply.  He simply looked at me with an expression both distressed and mournful.

Our encounter lasted no more than a handful of seconds.  Today I recall my presumptuous apology with a profound sense of embarrassment and even shame.  Worse still was my failure — inability? refusal? — to acknowledge the context:  The United States had, over years, inflicted horrendous harm on the people of South Vietnam.

It’s a wonder Capt.  Nguyen didn’t spit in my eye.

Our war in Indochina — the conflict we call the Vietnam War — officially ended in January 1973 with the signing in Paris of an “Agreement Ending the War and Restoring Peace in Vietnam.”  Under the terms of that fraudulent pact, American prisoners of war were freed and the last U.S. combat troops left for home.  Primary responsibility for securing the Republic of Vietnam thereby fell to ARVN.

Meanwhile, despite a nominal cessation of hostilities, approximately 150,000 North Vietnamese regulars still occupied a large swath of South Vietnamese territory.  In effect, our message to our enemy and our ally was this:  We’re outta here; you guys sort this out.  In a bit more than two years, that sorting-out process would extinguish the Republic of Vietnam.

And so again today.  At the end of the 17th year of what Americans commonly call the Afghanistan War — one wonders what name Afghans will eventually assign it — U.S. military forces are moving on.  However we might define Washington’s evolving purposes in its Afghanistan War — “nation building,” “democratization,” “pacification”— the likelihood of mission accomplishment is nil.  As in the early 1970s, so in 2019, rather than admitting failure, the Pentagon is changing the subject and once again turning its attention to “real soldiering,” which means refocusing on Russia and China.

Here is Mr Carroll's first six paragraphs:
President Trump’s secret plan to meet the Taliban at Camp David, to negotiate the withdrawal of American forces from Afghanistan, shows his misunderstanding of our enemy’s character and dangers they pose to the United States.

I was an Army veteran and junior associate at a Wall Street law firm on Sept. 11, 2001.  Like most New Yorkers, I lost friends that day.  Fortunately, I held a reserve commission, so I could simply volunteer for duty, and I did so on Sept. 12.  I served twice, briefly, in Afghanistan, although I never fired a shot in anger.

No veteran should purport to represent the views of all who served, and none ought to presume to speak for the fallen.  Yet Saturday’s news gave me, and many Americans of all backgrounds, pause at how confused we have become.

It is not wrong to pursue peace with enemies; American diplomats coolly negotiated with communists from North Korea and North Vietnam in Panmunjom and Paris.  But for Trump to invite the Taliban to Camp David was a mistake — as if Chamberlain had invited Hitler to Chequers.

Any veteran can tell you about the Taliban’s depravity.  Around the time of my second tour, the Taliban bombed a nearby girls' school, disfiguring its students by throwing acid in their faces; they wired a baby donkey with explosives, to lure the children of a local police official from their home and kill them; elsewhere, they attacked new mothers, their babies, and staff at a maternity clinic.

These are not traditional military enemies.  To invite such people to the weekend family home of presidents since Franklin Roosevelt, in an admitted attempt to obtain a political goal before an upcoming domestic election, is just a bad idea — in poor taste, to put it mildly.

I see both sides of this issue and don't like any of the answers, especially because it is bigger than Afghanistan.  There is Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence or ISI, which runs a lot of what happens in Afghanistan.  Will that change.  Then there is the Whabbi branch of Islam in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.  What are their longer terms goals?  We need to know more.

Regards  —  Cliff

Wednesday, September 11, 2019

9/11 Again


For John, BLUF:  The attack on 11 September 2001 was a traumatic event for almost everyone in the United States, and the larger West.  Nothing to see here; just move along.



Today is the 18th Anniversary of the 9/11Attack.

A terrible event.  And now, 18 years on, do we still want to be fighting in Afghanistan?  In The LA Times Retired Historian and Army Colonel Andrew Bacevich talks about pulling out of Afghanistan.


Here is the sub-headline:

When Americans finally leave Afghanistan, we won’t look back. It will be Vietnam all over again.

Ending a war with someone who has a radically different view of culture and government can be difficult and the outcome may not be what we desire.  However, this isn't World War II and we are not going to crush the opposition, the way we did Japan and Germany.

The other side of the coin is that we need to do some strategic study, thinking about what is the best way to engage in these kinds of wars.

That is, we need to ask, now, what we will do the next time.  There will be a next time, because the ISIS crowd is intolerant and we are not knuckling under.

Yes, I am a Viet-nam Veteran, and was part of the force supporting Cambodian forces against the Khmer Rouge, by flying Close Air Support and Air Interdiction missions.  I was not there for the last day of Us Operations, having chosen to take leave and avoid the reporters, lest I say something untoward.

Regards  —  Cliff

Monday, January 21, 2019

Building A Wall


For John, BLUF:  Didn't anyone check first with Speaker Pelosi?  Nothing to see here; just move along.




Here is the sub-headline:

Pakistan is building a wall along its border with Afghanistan. Will it actually make the country safer?

From The Diplomat! By Mr Muhammad Akbar Notezai, 19 January 2019.

Here is the lede plus two:

Bramcha (sometimes spelled Bramacha) is a tiny town in Pakistan’s far western Balochistan province, situated in a corner of the province’s Chaghi district on the border with Afghanistan.  There used to be an extension of the same town on the Afghan side of the border, too.  After the United States’ invasion of Afghanistan, the Afghan side of the town was wiped from the map due to bombing campaigns – the town not only housed the Afghan Taliban but also drug traffickers.  Some called Afghan Bramcha the epicenter of drug trafficking, and it’s not hard to see why.  Even today, Bramcha is situated in one of the remotest and most lawless corners of the world.

Over the years, Pakistani authorities have grown increasingly concerned about the security situation on its borders with both Afghanistan and Iran.  The border with Afghanistan, in particular, has been loosely governed and porous from day one.  This is why Pakistani authorities have now commenced fencing its border with Afghanistan, in a bid to stop militants and drug traffickers from pouring into Pakistan.

This development is opposed by not only Afghan authorities but also by the Afghan Taliban.  In recent months, when Pakistani security forces were stationed in Bramcha to fence off the border with Afghanistan, the Afghan Taliban blocked the effort in some areas.

I wonder how this will work out?

Regards  —  Cliff

Sunday, January 13, 2019

The Democrats on Trump Force Withdrawals


For John, BLUF:  This is one person's view, but one that resonates with me.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




Here is the sub-headline:

Make no mistake, the Democrats have been tacking to the right on foreign policy and burgeoning their tough-guy-interventionist credentials for decades now

From Common Dreams, by Mr Danny Sjursen, 11 January 2018.

Here is the lede plus three:

If anyone else were president, the “liberals” would be celebrating.  After all, pulling American soldiers out of a couple of failing, endless wars seems like a “win” for progressives.  Heck, if Obama did it there might be a ticker-tape parade down Broadway.  And there should be.  The intervention in Syria is increasingly aimless, dangerous and lacks an end state.  Afghanistan is an unwinnable war – America’s longest – and about to end in outright military defeat.  Getting out now and salvaging so much national blood and treasure ought to be a progressive dream.  There’s only one problem: Donald Trump. Specifically, that it was Trump who gave the order to begin the troop withdrawals.

Lost in the haze of their pathological hatred of President Trump, the majority of mainstream liberal pundits and politicians can’t, for the life of them, see the good sense in extracting the troops from a couple Mideast quagmires.  That or they can see the positives, but, in their obsessive compulsion to smear the president, choose politics over country.  It’s probably a bit of both.  That’s how tribally partisan American political discourse has become.  And, how reflexively hawkish and interventionist today’s mainstream Democrats now are.  Whither the left-wing antiwar movement?  Well, except for a few diehards out there, the movement seems to have been buried long ago with George McGovern.

Make no mistake, the Democrats have been tacking to the right on foreign policy and burgeoning their tough-guy-interventionist credentials for decades now.  Terrified of being painted as soft or dovish on martial matters, just about all the “serious” baby-boomer Dems proudly co-opted the militarist line and gladly accepted campaign cash from the corporate arms dealers.  Think about it, any Democrat with serious future presidential aspirations back in 2002 voted for the Iraq War – Hillary, Joe Biden, even former peace activist John Kerry!  And, in spite of the party base now moving to the left, all these big name hawks – along with current Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer – are still Democratic stalwarts.  Heck, some polls list Biden as the party’s 2020 presidential frontrunner.

More disturbing than the inconsistency of these political hacks is the vacuousness of the supposedly liberal media.  After Trump’s announcement of troop withdrawals, just about every MSNBC host slammed the president and suddenly sounded more hawkish than the clowns over at Fox News.  Take Rachel Maddow.  Whatever you think of her politics, she is – undoubtedly – a brilliant woman.  Furthermore, unlike most pundits, she knows a little something about foreign policy.  Her 2012 book, Drift:  The Unmooring of American Military Power was a serious and well-researched critique of executive power and the ongoing failure of the wars on terror. Drift was well reviewed by regular readers and scholars alike.

Exactly.

Well, I did think "clowns" was a little harsh in describing the folks at Fox News.

Regards  —  Cliff

Thursday, September 13, 2018

911 From the Other Side


For John, BLUF:  The perpetrators of the 911 attacks, back in 2001, al-Qaddafi, has not gone away and the US is the focus of their attention.  The US is the main enemy .  Nothing to see here; just move along.




From Long War Journal, by Mr Thomas Joscelyn, 11 September 2018.

Here is the lede plus three:

Al Qaeda released a new message from its leader, Ayman al Zawahiri, to commemorate the 17th anniversary of the 9/11 hijackings earlier today.  Titled “How to Confront America,” the talk is intended to rally jihadists and supporters against their common perceived enemy.  Much of the message is not a how-to so much as it is a restatement of al Qaeda’s anti-American view.

Zawahiri portrays the US as the chief enemy of Muslims around the globe.  Of course, al Qaeda has repeatedly plotted and called for terrorist attacks inside the West.  But that is not the only way Zawahiri thinks the jihadists should continue to fight the Americans.

“We must wage the war – in any part of the Islamic World – as if it is a single war with different fronts against a united enemy,” Zawahiri explains.  The wars in “the tribal areas in Pakistan, in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Palestine, Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Yemen, Mali, Somalia and elsewhere” are not just “between the Muslims and the local governments only,” according to Zawahiri.  Instead, these conflicts have “always been between the Muslims and the system of the major international criminals – America being the foremost.”

In Zawahiri’s framework, there is no firm line between al Qaeda’s so-called far and near enemies, as they are all part of the same global war.

In our thinking we need to differentiate between the Taliban (Afghanistan) and al-Qaeda (Global jihad).

We can pull out of Afghanistan, and while that might placate the Taliban, it will not placate al-Qaeda.  The terrorist threat will remain.

Hat tip to Defense News, "Early Bird Edition".

Regards  —  Cliff

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

9/11, Seventeen Years On


For John, BLUF:  We stay in Afghanistan because no President, or his advisors, trust others to support him in good faith.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




Here is the sub-headline:

I went to war to avenge my brother’s death.  But the only person I truly wanted to kill died 17 years ago.

From The Old Gray Lady, by Mr Joe Quinn, a United States Army veteran, 10 September 2018.

The OpEd ends:

But the main reason I wanted to stay quiet is because it has embarrassingly taken me 17 years to realize something, and what I realized was this:  Seventeen years ago, staring at that picture of Mohammad Atta, I wanted revenge against the people who killed my brother.  But what I finally realized was that the people who killed my brother died the same day he did.

I refuse to take Atta’s orders, or Bin Laden’s.  I will not “stay quiet.”  End the war.

I tend to agree with Mr Quinn, but it isn't that easy.  Being in Afghanistan (and Iraq and Syria) is our entrée in the event more bad Guys pop up there.  See, for example, the policy position of Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA).
Tim Kaine, a Virginia senator on both the Senate’s armed services and foreign relations committees, believes that the strikes on Syria in April 2017 amounted to an act of war, and because the Constitution says only Congress has the right to declare war, President Donald Trump exceeded his authority.
Let President Trump pull out of Afghanistan and we experience another significant attack planned out of Afghanistan and then listen to the uproar and the charges of stupidity, or worse.  It could lead to another ranchorus debate like that in the 1950s over who lost China.

Thank you to the Service members, and civilians, who answered the call after 9/11.

Regards  —  Cliff

Monday, September 3, 2018

Ending the War in Afghanistan


For John, BLUF:  I don't think we can kill our way to peace, and we don't want another Killing Fields outcome, so it will take some imaginative thinking to end this.  Nothing to see here; just move along.




From The Boston Globe, by Reporter Mujib Mashal, 3 September 2018.

The origin of the story is The New York Times.

The tone of the story is somewhat down-beat.  We have been there a while, since shortly after 9/11.

The outgoing commander of forces from 41 different nations, US Army General John Nicholson Jr., believes it is time for the Taliban to give peace a try.

Regards  —  Cliff