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Monday, June 15, 2009

How We Poll, Politically

Today Gallup released a new poll.  Ms Lydia Saad, writing for Gallup, had this headline:
“Conservatives” Are Single-Largest Ideological Group
Percentage of “liberals” higher this decade than in early ’90s
This item can be found here.

The lead paragraph sums it up.
PRINCETON, NJ -- Thus far in 2009, 40% of Americans interviewed in national Gallup Poll surveys describe their political views as conservative, 35% as moderate, and 21% as liberal.  This represents a slight increase for conservatism in the U.S. since 2008, returning it to a level last seen in 2004.  The 21% calling themselves liberal is in line with findings throughout this decade, but is up from the 1990s.
Ms Saad's "Bottom Line"♠
Although the terms may mean different things to different people, Americans readily peg themselves, politically, into one of five categories along the conservative-to-liberal spectrum.  At present, large minorities describe their views as either moderate or conservative—with conservatives the larger group—whereas only about one in five consider themselves liberal.

While these figures have shown little change over the past decade, the nation appears to be slightly more polarized than it was in the early 1990s.  Compared with the 1992-1994 period, the percentage of moderates has declined from 42% to 35%, while the percentages of conservatives and liberals are up slightly—from 38% to 40% for conservatives and a larger 17% to 21% movement for liberals.
The only problem is that the author makes the assumption that "moderate" represents the middle and everything else is a deviation from the middle.  Is that really true?

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  I find "Bottom Line" to be an irritating phrase.

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