Iran Voting

From what I can tell, the President did well in his Press Conference.  There is some nattering about a planted question, but it does not become a habit, this "question from an Iranian source" was a good strategic communications move.

As to the vote itself, a preliminary analysis has been done and four main points made:

• In two conservative provinces, Mazandaran and Yazd, a turnout of more than 100% was recorded.
• If Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's victory was primarily caused by the increase in voter turnout, one would expect the data to show that the provinces with the greatest increase in voter turnout would also show the greatest 'swing' in support towards Ahmadinejad.  This is not the case.
• In a third of all provinces, the official results would require that Ahmadinejad took not only all former conservative voters, all former centrist voters, and all new voters, but also up to 44% of former reformist voters, despite a decade of conflict between these two groups.
• In 2005, as in 2001 and 1997, conservative candidates, and Ahmadinejad in particular, were markedly unpopular in rural areas.  That the countryside always votes conservative is a myth.  The claim that this year Ahmadinejad swept the board in more rural provinces flies in the face of these trends.

Having heard differently about the rural areas, I am not sure I am ready to accept this judgment, but still, the other three bullets alone suggest a problem with the vote counting.

This is not going to get better with age.  The Iraqi establishment is setting itself up for a long term tarnishment of its image.  I know they don't see it, but then neither did Kermit Roosevelt, Jr.

There are a lot of statistics in the report and maybe my Daughter, who once did some analysis for Memet Ali, will look at this and leave a comment indicating that this looks OK or not.

Regards  —  Cliff