Significant Voter Shift?

For John, BLUF:  Demography is destiny, but it is not a guarantee of electoral victory.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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From Politico we have Mr Doug Sosnik♠ looking at the 2016 race, "America’s Hinge Moment".  It is subtitled "Presidential politics in 2016 will reflect the shifting reality of America".  Here is the beginning of the story.

The country is going through the most significant period of change since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.  Across the United States, we are seeing a convergence of economic, technological and demographic forces that is transforming every aspect of our lives.  These changes are all reinforcing each other, adding to the pace and the scale of the disruption.

Despite the upheaval Americans are experiencing, voting patterns in presidential elections have remained virtually unchanged for the past 25 years—with the majority of states voting the same way in the last six elections.  That’s not unexpected, even at a time of great change, because elections, in fact, historically have served as lagging indicators—not leading ones—of the direction of the country.  Rather than forecasting the future, election results help us make better sense of the past.

The current era in presidential politics has been defined by deep partisan divisions over the same issues and static voting behavior tied to race, ethnicity, gender, age and geography.  Even though Democrats have won the popular vote in five out of the past six presidential elections, they have only once been able to get more than 51 percent of the vote.

Now, though, there are signs that the transformation is starting to pick up steam in our elections.  Even though we have yet to feel the full impact at the ballot box we’re nearing a shift that will signal an inevitable political earthquake.

It is a very interesting read and not too long.

The problem is, for Mr Sosnik, race and ethnicity, like religion, are not long term predictors of political affixation.  Remember when Blacks voted Republican?  Could happen again.  There is no guarantee that Hispanics will always vote Democrat.

Hat tip to Memeorandum.

Regards  —  Cliff

♠  "Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik was a close adviser to President Bill Clinton, and he’s famed in Washington circles for his closely held, big-think memos on the state of American politics."