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Monday, April 20, 2015

Wrinkle in Iran Negotiations

For John, BLUFThe Iran nuclear negotiations look like a mess  I guess we just have to hope.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

From Yahoo News we have a report, "Iran Guard rejects inspection of military sites".
A senior commander in Iran's Revolutionary Guard said Sunday that inspectors would be barred from military sites under any nuclear agreement with world powers.

Gen. Hossein Salami, the Guard's deputy leader, said on state TV that allowing the foreign inspection of military sites is tantamount to "selling out."

"We will respond with hot lead (bullets) to those who speak of it," Salami said.  "Iran will not become a paradise for spies.  We will not roll out the red carpet for the enemy."

So we are the enemy?  Well, there is the theory that you don't negotiate with your friends, but with your enemies.

Someone noted:

In US-Soviet nuclear arms negotiations, the US was able to achieve effective on-sight inspection provisions only after a liberalizing regime—Gorbchev's—came to power in 1985.  If Brezhnev's regime had stayed in power, such inspections would likely not have been possible.  If the USSR is an analogy, such transparency in Iran may not be possible until it undergoes a liberalizing change of governance.
The question is, is this just bluster or does SecState Kerry have to work this in the negotiations?  Given that the Revolutionary Guard is responsible for the nuclear program, this assertion by General Salami would be a bit of a stumbling block.

Frankly, I expect that the sanctions will crumble.  So we should get what we can and move on, but at the same time doing something to signal to the Iranians, like taking action to beef up our nuclear deterrent, including theater nuclear capabilities.  But that is just me.

Regards  —  Cliff

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