The Nuclear Urge

For John, BLUF:  North Korea has been limping along economically for some time as it fights off sanctions for its nuclear development program and tries to make a command economy work.  For example, the Arduous March famine (94-98) killed some 240,000 to 3,500,000 North Koreans out of a total population of some 22 million.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Gaps between market prices in different North Korean regions are growing

Here is the sub-headline:

Chinese food product prices are 45% to 250% higher in Hoeryong than in Pyongsong

From The Daily NK, by Reporter Seulkee Jang, 8 April 2021, 10:00am.

Here is the lede plus four:

Amid North Korea’s attempts to strengthen control over its markets following the closure of the country’s borders last year, the gap between market prices in different regions has been growing more pronounced recently.

Differences in prices between regions in North Korea have steadily decreased as North Korean marketization has created more diverse means of transport.  Much of this can be attributed to the increase in North Korean servi-cha, which are vehicles that operate like a taxi or courier service and can traverse the entire country within a single day.

Despite the increase of oil prices due to international sanctions, there has been few gaps between commodity prices in different areas of the country.  However, as North Korean authorities tightened their control over travel between different areas of the country following the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, markets – which rely on stable logistics networks to thrive – have suffered.

A source recently told Daily NK that 450 grams of Chinese flavor enhancer was selling for KPW 165,000 at a market in Hoeryong, North Hamgyong Province, on Mar. 25.  One kilogram of sugar cost KPW 45,000, while one kilogram of Chinese flour was KPW 28,000.

Before the authorities enforced the border blockade in January of last year, 450 grams of Chinese flavor enhancer sold at the same market for KPW 5,000, while one kilogram of sugar and flour sold for KPW 5,500 and KPW 4,700, respectively.

I don't see any way Noth Korean Dictator Kim Jung-un is giving up his nuclear weapons. None.  I am sure he drew conclusions from the way we treated Libya strongman Muammar Gaddafi after he gave up his own nuclear weapons program.

Neither China nor Russia have interest in helping us deal with North Korea.

Our hope of ending North Korea's nuclear weapons program rests in reunification of the Korean Peninsula following the collapse of the North Korean Government.  That collapse will result when the People have had enough and refuse to do more.  When is the $64 Question.  In the mean time North Korea limps along economically, with tens of thousands on the edge.

Regards  —  Cliff

Wokeness in North Korea

For John, BLUF:  North Korea gives us an example of how ugly it can get when certain thoughts are proscribed.  .  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Four publicly executed in Pyongyang on charges of distributing “illegal video materials”

From the Daily NK, by Reporter Ha Yoon Ah, 12 March 2021, 1:03 PM.

Here is the lede plus two:

Four North Koreans were publicly executed in Pyongyang recently on charges of distributing “illegal video materials,” Daily NK has learned.

A source in the country told Daily NK yesterday that the execution took place on Mar. 2 at the Daewon-ri Firing Range in Pyongyang’s Sadong District.  The four people, including three men and one woman, were executed by firing squad in front of local city residents and the heads of all Pyongyang’s inminban (neighborhood watch-like organizations).

All those executed were residents of Hadang-dong, an area of Pyongyang’s Hyongjae District.  Led by a man in his early 50s along with his wife, who was in her late 40s, the group was accused of placing South Korean movies, entertainment and music programs on SD cards and distributing them throughout the country.

This seems rather harsh.

The source of this action is covered toward the end of the article:

Article 27 of the anti-reactionary thought law says that anyone caught importing or distributing South Korean movies, music or published works face a lifetime of forced labor or execution, according to materials obtained by Daily NK.

Now there is serious "woke" enforcement.  There is, apparently, no forgiveness, no bringing a repentent person back into the Community.  In North Korea wrong thoughts, wrong actions, wrong words can get you in trouble, a lot more trouble than here, so far.

Those doing wrong not only sufferred execution, but also consequences for their immediate families:

The teenage children of the couple have been sent to South Pyongan Province’s Bukchang 18 concentration camp, which is run by the Ministry of Social Security.  The immediate family members of the other executed people who had been living in Pyongyang have all been exiled to other parts of the country.

Will those family members ever recover?  Not likely under the rein of President Kim Jong-un.  Under North Korea's Songbun system the sins of the parent, and of the grandparent, will be visited on the individual.  Digging out from under the Songbun system is not easy.

But, are we not developing a like system here, with our Woke approach to things?  We aren't executing anyone, but we are removing them from their place in society and casting them aside.

Regards  —  Cliff

Did you EnjoyYour Stay?

For John, BLUF:  This is, of course, mockery, but it is funny, in its own way.  For sure the DPRK Concentration Camps are abysmal places.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Google Maps users find reviews of North Korea concentration camp

Here is the sub-headline:

People have been leaving largely positive reviews for the Yodok Concentration Camp on Google, which has previously been reported by one ex-detainee as being "worse than Auschwitz"

From The Daily Star (UK), by Digital Reporter Joshua Smith, 21 FEB 2021, 19:40.

Here is the lede plus four:

Google Maps users have found out that reviews have been left for a North Korea concentration camp on the platform.

The reviews, which are mostly positive, have been left for the Yodok Concentration Camp.

The camp, about 110km northeast of the country's capital of Pyongyang, was used to segregate those seen as enemies of the state, punish them for political misdemeanors and put them to hard labour but was reportedly closed down in 2014.

But that hasn't stopped people leaving reviews for the torture camp on Google.

Posting a video of the discovery on Reddit, one user wrote:  "Turns out North Korean concentration camps have reviews on Google."

Indeed they do.

I am glad to see humor, even macabree humor, is still alive and well.

Regards  —  Cliff

Trump's Next Move

For John, BLUF:  The future is not written in stone.  And bullies need to be resisted.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Live updates:  Iran launches missiles at US military facilities in Iraq, Pentagon confirms

Here is the sub-headline:

Officials said there have been no reports of American casualties at this time.

From ABC News, by Reporters Luis Martinez and Elizabeth McLaughlin, 7 January 2020.

Here is the lede plus one:

Iran fired multiple missiles into Iraq on Tuesday evening, targeting U.S. military sites in what appeared to be retaliation for the recent American drone strike that killed one of its top generals.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps swiftly took credit, and one Iranian politician tweeted his nation’s flag -- an apparent swipe at President Donald Trump who tweeted the American flag after the U.S. killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani.

So where does it go from here?  This could be the opening act of a worse future, as suggested by The Daily Beast Yesterday ("The Nuclear Threats From Iran and North Korea, Working Together, Grow by the Day").  The sub-headline is "By blowing away Soleimani, Trump wanted to show he is not a paper tiger. But his “disproportionate” actions may push North Korea and Iran to step up nuclear cooperation."

One problem with this view is that it ignores several decades of history, including Iranian fomenting of conflict over the last two decades, and efforts at nuclear weapons development.  It includes North Korean acts of overseas assassinations and their sinking of a South Korean warship.  Then there is the North Korean shelling of South Korean Islands.

There is an alternative future.  It is possible the leadership of both Iran and North Korea will recognize there are limits to their bullying behavior, coupled with a willingness on the part of the United States to engage in Live and Let Live.  We are hearing those kinds of words from the White House and Tehran.  There is hope.

Regards  —  Cliff

Dealing With The nKorean Threat

For John, BLUF:  Mr William Aikin is not a known "Right Wing" crank.  On the other hand, as a "defense analyst" he has been known to question the conventional wisdom.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Say what you will about Trump, but his tactics on North Korea are working

Here is the sub-headline:

US officials warn of a president who is a dangerous wildcard, but Trump should be supported in his denuclearization plan

From The Guardian, Analyst William M Arkin, 25 February 2019.

Here is the lede plus four:

When Donald Trump sits down with Kim Jong-un in Hanoi this week to further discuss eliminating North Korea’s nuclear capability, there are lots of reasons to doubt that the American president can pull it off.

Yet denuclearization is exactly the right goal and the president should be cheered on to succeed.

And yet, ever since the president announced last year that he would pursue “complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of the Korean peninsula”, jeering has been the near universal response.&Nbsp; It’s come from almost every imaginable American quarter: Republican and Democrat, liberal and conservative, expert and amateur.

Former president Barack Obama’s CIA director John Brennan has been the most vociferous, saying that a president “prone to flattery” and oblivious to North Korea’s “agile feint” has taken Kim’s “bait”, canceling exercises and contemplating reductions of forces.  Meanwhile, the news media is filled with leaks and speculation that North Korea clandestinely continues to manufacture nuclear materials and work on long-range missiles.  Ahead of the meeting, US officials promise that troop withdrawals from the Korean peninsula won’t happen, more of a hope as to the actual agenda, given the portrayal of Trump as a dangerous wildcard.

The picture painted is of an unmanageable patriarch who desires to give away the family fortune.  That family fortune of course is in the possession of the national security establishment.  On North Korea, but not only with regard to Korea – look also at Syria and Afghanistan – expert Washington is the master at adhering to their own preferred solutions.  Their passive-aggressive ways – whether applied to Trump on Korea or Obama on issues like Guantánamo and general nuclear disarmament – perpetuate stagnancy, any real change stymied through the imposition of conditions that are never quite achievable.

Yes, North Korea still has nuclear weapons.  But, we are talking and there have been no recent tests.  I judge the new normal to be better than the old normal.  As for Chairman Kim's belief that if he gives up his nuclear weapons he makes his position less secure, we can thank then Secretary of State Clinton.

Regards  —  Cliff

North Korea Faces Problems

For John, BLUF:  The global heat wave seems to have impacted North Korea particularly hard.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Disheartened North Korean officials label this year's harvest 'dead in the water'

From the Daily NK, by Reporter Kim Yoo Jin, 8 August 2018.

Here is the lede plus three:

As North Korea continues to reel from an unprecedented heat wave, the authorities are conducting a nationwide assessment of the damage that has been inflicted on crops as well as on-site farm visits, report sources in the country.

"The temperature has risen daily and there's no rain, so crops all over the country are drying out," said a North Hamgyong Province-based source on August 6. "The authorities are investigating the damage done to the agricultural fields."

The source said that the authorities have sent investigative teams to farms throughout the country who are taking photos of the damage and sending them back to central headquarters.

The roots of the corn crops have yellowed because they have dried out from the lack of rain. North Koreans consider the agricultural season to be "finished" this year. Farmers have suffered from both the double impact of intense heat and drought.

Will this remind the North Koreans of the North Korean famine, which occurred in North Korea from 1994 to 1998?

The first question, of course, is how do we prevent another famine, given the last one killed hundreds of thousands?  Here is Wikipedia's view:

Out of a total population of approximately 22 million, somewhere between 240,000 and 3,500,000 North Koreans died from starvation or hunger-related illnesses, with the deaths peaking in 1997.  A 2011 U.S. Census Bureau report put the likely number of excess deaths during 1993 to 2000 at from 500,000 to 600,000.

The second question is how do we prevent a breakdown that results in a massive refugee exodus into Russia and China, which will be resisted by both?

The third question is how does the United States properly leverage this situation in a way that helps Chairman Kim Jung-un step back from his nuclear ambitions?

Regards  —  Cliff

Modern Slavery

For John, BLUF:  Slavery is still abroad in this world, just more in other parts of the world than here at home.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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North Korea has 2.6 million 'modern slaves,' new report estimates

From The Wash Post, by Mr Adam Taylor, 19 July 2018.

Here is the lede:

North Korea has the highest prevalence of modern slavery in the world, with 1 out of every 10 citizens considered victims under the practice, according to estimates included in a new report.

Yes, as horrible as a nuclear armed North Korea is, the human rights abuses under the Kim Family Regime is more horrible.

All that said, the final paragraph contains some interesting information.

The Global Slavery Index found that outside of North Korea, the countries with the worst prevalence of slavery were Eritrea, Burundi, the Central African Republic, Afghanistan, Mauritania, South Sudan, Pakistan, Cambodia and Iran.  The report noted that other countries were often complicit through the import of goods at risk of being produced through forced labor — with the United States importing the most at-risk goods of any nations, with $144 billion a year.

Maybe the Progs are rights.  Maybe all those folks shopping at Walmart and Target are propagating slavery around the world.  I say blame the Caucasians.

Regards  —  Cliff

Going to Singapore

For John, BLUF:  What is the skill set required here?  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Is Trump Unprepared to Negotiate with Kim?

From Pajama Media, by Mr Roger L Simon, 7 June 2018.

Remember, experts built the Titanic, while amateurs built the Ark.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

May Day, Again

TRIGGER WARNING:  In which I suggest socialism just ruins things for the workers.

For John, BLUF:  Springtime for Stalin.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Remembrance of May Days Past

From Pajama Media, by Sarah Hoyt, May Day 2018.

Here is the lede plus three:

I woke up this morning and realized it was May Day — and was unutterably relieved things have changed from the May Days of my childhood.

May Day was a holiday — no work/school — being International Worker’s Day.  I remember dreary days with nothing on the TV but the might of the USSR and its satellites, in fantastic display.

Troops and groups of workers, flying red flags paraded before podiums ornamented with red paraphernalia, a seemingly invincible might, a proud and unquestionably enthusiastic multitude of workers and soldiers, of farmers and peasants.  It seemed the whole world was submerged in red for the occasion, and our own local idiots would demonstrate and commit acts of senseless violence, which was the reason I resorted to the TV.  Mom wouldn’t let me go out.

(I believe people in Seattle and other US enclaves afflicted by the Marxist bug still make themselves a nuisance on May Day.  As in Portugal at that time, this is mostly the sport of students and “intellectuals” not of anyone who has ever done an honest day’s work for an honest day’s pay.)

There are those who believe there is a worker's paradise out there, but it is not to be found in Venezuela or in North Korea or any other nation with some form of Socialism.  Free Enterprise creates wealth.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Responses to Provocations

For John, BLUF:  It is like when you are young and your younger sibling is trying to provoke you.  You want to slug the dear, but that might not be the proper response.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Here's How U.S.-North Korea Crises Typically End

From The Atlantic, by Reporter Uri Friedman, 7 February 2018.

Here is the lede plus one:

How will the standoff over North Korea's nuclear weapons end?  Will Kim Jong Un buckle under pressure and roll back his nuclear program, or will he press forward in completing an arsenal that can threaten the whole world?  Will Donald Trump make good on his threats to take military action against the North, or will he focus on deterring Kim from ever using his nukes?

It's impossible to answer these questions with certainty.  But it's possible to find clues in the historical record.  And history suggests that the current crisis is unlikely to devolve into fighting—that the more probable outcome is one or both leaders backing down and reaching a compromise.

Long before North Korea was antagonizing America with missile and nuclear tests, it was seizing American spy ships, downing American planes, and hacking American soldiers to death.  In 2007, the Congressional Research Service catalogued well over 100 North Korean provocations against the United States and its allies over the previous 57 years, ranging in severity from the digging of a cross-border tunnel to the invasion of South Korea in 1950.  That invasion sparked a three-year war that left millions dead. Since then, however—from the bombing of a South Korean airplane in 1987 to the more recent sinking of a South Korean warship and shelling of a South Korean island in the same year—no North Korean provocation has resulted in a major military conflict.

There is the long history, at the link embedded above, to the shorter history in the article, but here is the article's conclusion:

Donald Trump has argued that episodes such as the Pueblo and EC-121 crises have led the Kim regime to interpret "America's past restraint as weakness"—and that it "would be a fatal miscalculation" for Kim to draw the same conclusions this time around.  But Trump nonetheless confronts the same conundrum that Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford and Bill Clinton all confronted well before North Korea had nuclear weapons.  To paraphrase Henry Kissinger, the least-risky military options are insufficient to meet the challenge from North Korea and the sufficient military options are very risky.  And even if the military plans are limited, the planners must be prepared for unlimited war on the Korean peninsula.  Since the horror of the Korean War, no U.S. leader has been willing to assume those risks. Not yet, at least.

My strategic advice to the President♠ is to stick with deterrence and sanctions, but to be ready to support South Korea in any response needed to a provocation.  If Kim Jung-un attacks the US or Japan then we should go with a proportional response led by the US.

Regards  —  Cliff
-2, Sun 4.10

♠  Worth what he paid for it.

The Threat From North Korea

For John, BLUF:  Wishing won't make North Korea's nuclear capability go away, and neither will blaming President Trump.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Tweet of the Day

This is a Tweet by Ms Jamie Lee Curtis, yesterday, 13 January 2018.

This Hawaii missle scare is on YOU Mr. Trump.  The real FEAR that mothers & fathers & children felt is on YOU.  It is on YOUR ARROGANCE.  HUBRIS.  NARCISSISM.  RAGE.  EGO.  IMMATURITY and your UNSTABLE IDIOCY.  Shame on your hate filled self.  YOU DID THIS!

Well, thanks to Ms Curtis we now know who was responsible for the Hawaii false alarm.

Here is the other bit of news.  The North Korean nuclear capability, such as it is, is not going away.  It is there to provide protection for North Korea from an American response to North Korean incited incidents and acts of aggression.

The other thing to think about is that the North Korean nuclear capability is not sufficient for a disarming first strike against the United States.  Rather, it is a capability held in reserve, to deter the United States.  Striking first means, for North Korea, giving up the deterrence and going straight to the elimination of the Kim Family Criminal Regime in response.

To make the North Korean nuclear capability go away there must be motivation for China to pay attention.  The only thing I can think of that could do the trick would be for South Korea or Japan to start to obtain their own nuclear weapons capability.  Of course, it could turn out that we end up with three nuclear armed nations, not just one.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

PRC and ROK

For John, BLUF:  Diplomacy is almost always better than war.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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South Korea, China agree to manage North Korea issue peacefully, in stable manner

This is from the Reuters Staff, 11 November 2017.

Here is the lede:

The leaders of South Korea and China on Saturday agreed on the need to manage the security situation on the Korean peninsula in a stable way and to resolve North Korea-related tensions peacefully after a summit meeting, the South’s presidential office said.

As Law Professor Glenn Harlan Reynolds said this morning, "Sounds like the North Korea diplomacy is working."

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Giving in to the Hecklers

For John, BLUF:  We need to support the free speech of those with whom we disagree.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Was Haydn a Bigot?  Are You?

From Pajama Media and Commentor Michael Walsh, 13 August 2017.

Here us the lede plus on:

My friend Dennis Prager, the radio talk-show-host, is conducting the Santa Monica Symphony in a Haydn symphony this Wednesday at Disney Hall in downtown Los Angeles, and, of course, his appearance has "drawn fire" and "raised controversy" in the fever swamps of the Left, which is freaking out at the prospect of having a "bigot" on the podium.  Anyone who knows Dennis, or who even listens to his daily radio show on the Salem Network, understands this is codswallop.  Prager is an observant Jew and a man who has spoken and written extensively on the moral issues of our day.  His bona fides as a public intellectual are impeccable.

And yet...

I worry that the lines of descent are being drawn too closely and the heckler's veto is being tolerated more and more.  If we can't explore alternative ideas we will become another toltalitarian nation, be it Communist or Fascist.  If we approach the point where people worry about "not being the first to stop applauding", for fear of drawing attention to themselves, our Democracy will be in serious trouble.  We will become like Soviet Russia or Nazi Germany or Communist China or Kim's Korea.

All the little "Antifas" running around are Fascist in their mentality and approach.  They seem not to realize that no one can survive the lens of history.  There will be no heroes of the past.

Hat tip to the InstaPundit.

Regards  —  Cliff

Down the Rabbit Hole

For John, BLUF:  People like this could get us in trouble.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Dangerous provocations:  North Korea’s missiles and the risk of war

Since this OpEd is from Nation of Change, a decidedly Progressive publication (Mr Derek Royden, author, published 6 August 2017), the "Dangerous Provocations" are not from North Korea, but from us here in the US.

So, Virginia, there really are people out there who think that we are the evil aggressors and poor Kim Jung-un, bless his little heart, is really an innocent democrat, being thwarted at every turn by the evil Americans.

What can I say?

Regards  —  Cliff

Meaning of nKorean ICBM Test, Short Term

For John, BLUF:  Time for planning, not for panic.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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Mattis:  North Korea Missile Launch Doesn’t Bring US Closer To War

I found this at the web presence Task and Purpose, but it is an article by Reporter David S Cloud, of The Los Angeles Times, on 6 July 2017.

Regards  —  Cliff

Follow-Up on Mr Otto Warmbier's Death

For John, BLUF:  I can see why Cuba recognizes the Government of North Korea, but not the Government of South Korea.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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How to hold North Korea accountable for Otto Warmbier’s death

This is from the organization Free Korea and Mr Joshua Stanton.

Here is the very powerful lede:

In North Korean prisons (at least, in those from which release is possible at all) when the guards conclude that a prisoner is about to die, they release her and send her away to die at home, so that disposing of her body will be someone else’s problem, and so that the warden can manipulate the camp’s rate of in-custody deaths downward. (Perhaps in some small way, even the wardens of North Korean prisons fear being held accountable, one day, for what they do.) The same is true when North Korean officers conclude that a soldier is about to die of starvation or tuberculosis — the army will send the soldier home to die.

Regards  —  Cliff

Otto Warmbier (RIP)

For John, BLUF:  The passing of Mr Warbbier is tragic.  The human rights situation in North Korea is a human disaster.  Nothing to see here; just move along.

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HRNK Statement on the Passing of Otto Warmbier

HRNK is the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea.

Otto Warmbier, a 22 year old Ohio native and University of Virgina student, has passed away from injuries suffered while detained on fabricated charges in North Korea. This is a shocking and sad development. A beloved son was taken away from the Warmbier family. We will keep them in our thoughts and prayers. The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) is saddened by this tragedy.

The Kim regime imprisoned and killed Otto Warmbier. Millions of unknown North Koreans are similarly subjected to the brutality of this regime. More than a hundred thousand men, women and children are being tortured, starved, and abused in North Korea's political prison camps. This continuing outrage is what motivates HRNK to do what the Kim regime fears the most: discover and disclose the truth about the regime's crimes. To honor Otto Warmbier's life and memory, we will continue to strive to inform, persuade and inspire political leaders to confront this terrible challenge to global security and to human values.

We urge our political leaders to reach across the aisle and foster bipartisan support for the millions of faceless, nameless North Korean victims, by elevating the importance of addressing the human rights situation in that country.

Here are ten practical things the US can do to advance human rights in North Korea.

Regards  —  Cliff