Climate Change

I am a bit of an agnostic on global warmingclimate change. However, Dr James Hansen, the Director of NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), is a convinced believer. The GISS is a joint venture with Columbia University.

Here is an article from The Manchester Guardian on Dr Hansen's view that President Elect Obama has only four years to reverse current trends or climate change will go divergent and not be recoverable. It will just spin out of control.

The GISS recently published, on line, a paper that says 2008 was one of the ten warmest years for surface temperatures since instruments began being used, back in 1880.

Calendar year 2008 was the coolest year since 2000, according to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies analysis [see ref. 1] of surface air temperature measurements. In our analysis, 2008 is the ninth warmest year in the period of instrumental measurements, which extends back to 1880 (left panel of Fig. 1). The ten warmest years all occur within the 12-year period 1997-2008. The two-standard-deviation (95% confidence) uncertainty in comparing recent years is estimated as 0.05°C [ref. 2], so we can only conclude with confidence that 2008 was somewhere within the range from 7th to 10th warmest year in the record.

I have to admit that I didn't quite follow that. If 2008 was the coolest since 2000, then 2001 through 2007 (seven of the 12 years) were warmer, so how can 2008 be the 7th to 10th warmest?

One of the things Dr Hansen would like to see the new Administration undertake is the elimination of coal fired power plants, perhaps to be replaced by fourth generation nuclear power plants. Those "Generation IV" nuclear power plants are described here and here.

In the mean time, Columnist Jeff Jacoby, the designated right-wing token on The Boston Globe's dwindling staff today had a list of eight questions for the US Senate to ask Dr John Holdren (who looks a little like my youngest brother). Dr Holdren (of Harvard) is President Elect Obama's nominee to be his Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (White House Science Adviser). Dr Holdren has been on the doom and gloom express about the world situation for some time, going back to his association with "population alarmist Paul Ehrlich." While Jeff Jacoby is a bit over the top with his eight questions, I would like to see Dr Holdren provide extended comments on a number of them. I would not be looking so much for scientific insight as for personal insight. That is to say, how does he evaluate his pass predictions and the actual outcomes and what did he learn from those events? (Remember President George Bush and his certitude? We need some Walking Humbly.)

Of the eight questions, the most interesting to me is number eight:

You are withering in your contempt for researchers who are unconvinced that human activity is responsible for global warming, or that global warming is an onrushing disaster. You have written that such ideas are "dangerous," that those who hold them "infest" the public discourse, and that paying any attention to their views is "a menace." You contributed to a published assault on Bjorn Lomborg's notable 2001 book "The Skeptical Environmentalist" - an attack the Economist described as "strong on contempt and sneering, but weak on substance." In light of President-elect Obama's insistence that "promoting science" means "protecting free and open inquiry," will you work to soften your hostility toward scholars who disagree with you?

Back to Dr Hansen, here is a quote from the Wikipedia entry linked to above (first link):

In it, he argues that human-caused forces on the climate are now greater than natural ones.

Am I the only person who believes that "human-caused forces" are natural ones? That is to say, am I the only one who believes in evolution and not some creationist view that mankind is separate from nature? This is not to say mankind shouldn't take action as appropriate, but that we should not have this bifurcated view of nature--good nature and bad mankind. It may take the use of a few more words in writing or talking to avoid this Arian like heresy, but it would be good in avoiding other misunderstandings.

I am hoping that there will be enough reporting in the MSM to allow us to track Dr Holdren's confirmation hearing(s) and to see what turns up. Maybe The Globe will spring for a round trip train ticket so Jeff Jacoby can go down and sit in on the hearing.

Regards  --  Cliff

PS For those who haven't followed this blog "from the beginning," I am all for reducing our dependence on oil as a source of energy. My concern is strategic. We should not be so dependent on foreign sources of energy.